We will be going back to the position breakdown this week for NFL week 8 Sunday main slate.  I will be focusing on position by position break down of players I like for cash games.  GPPs are still a big part of my game, but the majority of my action will be cash games H2Hs each Sunday as we get a lot of volume and variance in NFL.

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Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes has been on a tear this year and I don’t see that stopping this week either.  He has been an absolute stud and Denver does not scare me at all.  He put up 300 yards, 1 pass TD, 1 rush TD back in week 4 against Denver for 22 FD points.  I think you are going to want more than that and I think you have to pick between Mahomes and Hunt in cash.  I think Mahomes is fine and safe, but I pricing is tight this week and not sure you have to go here.  He has the highest floor of the expensive QBs almost every week, so I wouldn’t blame you if you went this route.  I think I will be focusing on the next 2 QBs in cash, however.

Andy Dalton – You are going to see two quarterbacks from the same game here, but I feel like they are the safest in cash games this week with the 3rd high total on the board and the same price on FD.  Steaming QBs against the last ranked DVOA pass defense has been money this year and I am not sure I want to get off that train.  I think it’s a great bounce-back spot for his WR Boyd as well if you want to pair them up in cash or GPP.  The Bucs are ranked 10th DVOA against the run so I think CIN throws it plenty here and on a week where pricing is pretty tight, then I think Dalton makes a lot of sense in cash games with a 29 implied team total, not sure how Dalton does not have 2- 3 TDs in this spot.

Jameis Winston – Winston in the same game with a 54.5 total on the week has been putting up fantastic points all year.  He has a great rushing floor that you can look forward to if running him in cash game as well.  They really do not have a rushing game at all, so they have been slinging it all year.  I don’t think you want to pair him up with anyone in cash games as Evans is too expensive, and they spread the ball around to the rest of their WR core.  The Bucs only target their RBs 11% of the time which is last in the NFL so they are a complete fade here.  They are ranked 4th in the NFL in WR target % at 66.5 so I’d look at Evans (31% market share air yards), Godin (15.5% market share air yards), and Jackson (24.3% market share air yards) when pairing him up in GPPs.

 

Running Backs

Joe Mixon – I was higher on him earlier in the week, but I still think he is cash viable.  He hasn’t been getting the carries the last few weeks only averaging 12 carries, however, they have been playing from behind.  I think if they get up here (they are favorites), then he should get more run and we know he is involved in the passing game so there is still a floor there.  The Wolfpack podcast might have been enough to talk me off running him in cash and going heavier Conner / Hunt, but I wanted to give my thoughts on why I still think he is a cash play here.

James Conner – I really thought Le’Veon Bell was going to report this week, but thankfully he is still holding out.  Conner should smash in this spot if they give the man the rock.  I would normally slot Gurley into this slot and I think Gurley is still a great cash play on DK, but $11,000 on FD is hard to swallow in cash.  I think I would rather go 2 of these mid-range guys in cash out of the 3 that I have listed.  I don’t think you can get all 3 of them in, but you can easily get 2 of them in your cash lineups.  Conner would be my favorite of the 3 if you are wondering and I would rank them Conner > Hunt > Mixon.  I think I ranked them differently last night on the podcast, but after hammering a few more beers down and going down the DFS rabbit hole, I like ranking them like this in cash.  I will be overweight to the field on him in GPPs as well.  The Browns are ranked 25th DVOA against the rush.

Kareem Hunt –  Denver is ranked 28th DVOA against the rush this year and Hunt has been putting up big numbers the last few weeks.  He still makes me a bit nervous as this team has so many weapons that they can go anywhere for points and Hunt could be left out in the cold.  I still think that Hunt will get his this week against a bad rush defense and I prefer him to Mahomes this week just to price.  Hunt rushed 19 times for 120 yards against Denver in week 4, so I hope we can see similar volume and he can sneak in the box a few times. Hunt > Mahomes in cash if picking a KC guy.

 

Wide Receivers

Robert Woods – He is my favorite cash game play on both sites as with no Kupp he should get the majority of the targets.  Cooks is more of a GPP kind of guy for me, but both are in play.  If GB can get their offense going and put some points on the board it should help the Rams passing game.  I still think Woods see targets here no matter what, but his ceiling will be much higher if this game can stay competitive.  Woods saw 7 targets last game with no Kupp and I think that is going to be his floor.   We could easily see a 10 target game with over 100 yards and a TD in this spot.  If you don’t play Gurley in cash games this week, make sure you get Woods in there so you get a piece of this game. I love Davante Adams on the other side of the ball as well against Troy hill who is average 12 targets and a TD per game.  

Jordy Nelson – Nelson becomes the clear cut #1 WR for the Raiders.  I know, I know, it is still the Raiders and they are in full tank mode.  They don’t have their starting RB and traded away their #1 WR.  The organization is a mess, but someone needs to catch the ball and I trust Nelson over Bryant in cash, but Bryant over Nelson in GPPs.  They are both really cheap on DK and we are going to need to find some WR value to fit in some of the mid-range RBs we want to fit in.  Carr is on the verge of losing the locker room and does not have a lot of confidence.  If stacking this game I prefer going Luck and coming back with the Raiders pass catchers.  I am not too sure Carr is going to smash this year in any spot.

Jarvis Landry– I think we can go back to Landry here this week.  Landry had 7 catches for 106 yards on 15 targets when they met in week 1 and PIT has been struggling with slot WRs.  They have allowed 3 combined touchdowns to Sanu and Boyd in their last two games.  This bodes well for Landry in every aspect and he should torch Mike Hilton here across the middle.  CLE should be playing from behind in this spot and Landry is their best WR of the bunch and 10 target floor should be in short order here.  We should see something similar to what we saw in week 1 and if he can get in the box then we are rolling here in cash.

 

Tight Ends

David Njoku – He has been a target monster the last weeks going 11, 12, and 6.  He has given us a TD in back-to-back games and they are going to be playing behind as I stated with Landry.  I think his number is continued to be called here and one of the safer options on the board.  I can’t pay up for Kelce in cash with how tight pricing is so we are left with only a few options.  Njoku or Cook is my favorite with Uzomah if you are punting the position.  He is 2nd in targets on the team with 52 so far.  I would not roster both Landry and Njoku in cash games together, but I do think you a look to one of them in cash games this week as they are the most likely to get a TD.

Jared Cook – Amari Cooper is gone to Dallas so Cook should see an uptick in targets and Carr should lean on him I would think.  The Raiders are in full tank mode, but I can see this game being a sneaky shoot-out and at the very least Raiders playing catchup and Cook getting a lot of targets.  I don’t think the Raiders win this game, but I think you are going to want either Cook, Jordy Nelson, or Martavis Bryant in most of your lineups as they are cheap and should be playing from behind.  I would rank them Cook > Nelson > Bryant in cash and in GPPs I would go Bryant > Cook > Nelson.  Pick your poison here!

 

Defense

Steelers – In cash games, don’t get crazy here and just plug in Steelers.  Someone had to fat finger them in on DK as they are only $2,300.  I don’t understand that pricing at all sitting at home against a rookie QB.  You can make a legit make a case for any defense each week as its the most volatile position out there, but in cash games I am just plugging in Steelers on both sites.

 

 

Keg Stands

This week in Keg Stands I don’t want to talk about a GPP approach, but more on analyzing your data you have collected over the first 6 weeks of the season to continue to build up that ROI.  I have noticed that my DK h2h matches are right around the 60% mark which is not bad, but my FD h2h win percentage is 75% with a 36% ROI as you can see below.  That tells me that I have been doing much better on FD than DK so far and I will push some of my volume on FanDuel this week as I continue to watch my win % and ROI.  You can make the best lineups in the world each week, but if you are not in the right contests and do not watch how you are doing, then you will never be as successful at DFS as you could be.  It is important to look back at your data and see where your success is and push some of your money in that direction to increase your ROI.  Please take the time to look at analyze your data and make those decisions to become a more profitable player long term.

 

ROI                                                           WIN

Before I Go…

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