I have been asked to change up my article this week for NFL week 7 Sunday main slate. I will be focusing on position by position break down of players I like for cash games. GPPs are still a big part of my game, but the majority of my action will be cash games H2Hs each Sunday as we get a lot of volume and variance in NFL.
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Quarterbacks
CJ Beathard – He might be my favorite cash game play on the board at his $4800 tag on DraftKings and $6400 on FanDuel. He does not need to do much to surpass this price tag and lets you spend up elsewhere in your lineup. They are going to most certainly be playing from behind this game and in the games, he has started this year he has thrown no less than 2 TDs per game and had attempts of 37, 54, 23 (Green Bay game where they were ahead most of it). He also has had an average completion percentage of around 65% in these games so he has been accurate with the ball as well. I like him to go for over 300 yards and 2 TDs playing catch up against the Rams and he will crush his value if he gets to this mark in this game. Don’t sleep on Beathard in cash or GPPs!
Baker Mayfield – Cleveland gets the horrendous Tampa Bay secondary this week and Baker is only $7100 on FanDuel and $5800 on DraftKings. I think I favor him more on FanDuel than I do on DK this week, but I like this spot for Baker against this crap secondary. He was a bit banged up last game and only managed to muster up 238 yards with one touchdown against the Chargers, but I think he smashes in this spot. Tampa Bay has allowed 16 passing touchdowns already through 6 weeks (5 really since they had their bye week). They also rank dead last against the pass as you can imagine with their 32nd DVOVA defense. Baker has not thrown multiple touchdowns this year yet, but with the Bucs giving up an average of over 3 touchdowns a week, I love me some Baker.
Blake Bortles – If you haven’t run away screaming yet after the 1st two quarterbacks I recommended for cash this week, then you might think I am even crazier for this pick in Bortles. I know Halloween is getting close and I promise you I am not trying to trick you or scare you, but hear me out. He is only $6500 on FanDuel and $5200 on DraftKings. Houston is 2nd DVOA against the run and 25th DVOA against the pass. He is going to have to sling the rock here as HOU front 7 is the strength of their defense. This is a week that I want to spend up so much on the high-end players that QB is the place to save this week in cash. *** The one caution I would have playing him in cash over the other 2 guys is LT Josh Walker who is replacing Cam Robinson (ACL). Walker has allowed the most QB hurries per snap over the last 2 weeks and that worries me a bit with Watt or Clowney with their ears pinned back. ***
Running Backs
Todd Gurley – Gurley is in such a great spot here against SF. SF does rank 11th DVOA against the run this year, but we get Gurley as a -9.5 favorite with a 31 point implied team total. This is one of the reasons I wanted to spend down at QB this week, is I want all the Gurley I can get my hands on. Kupp has been ruled out this game, who is the Rams possession WR. This could mean a few more dump-offs to Gurley to go along with his massive usage. Kupp was getting 21% of the target share and Gurley was sitting at 15%, so I could see a few more shares going his way along with his massive rushing upside. Gurley is averaging 25.8 PPR fantasy points per game this year. He is as consistent as they come in the backfield. The Niners do like the load the box as they have sent 8 or more defenders in the box nearly 30% of the time, but Sean McVay won’t allow it. Gurley has over 120 carries this year in 3 WR sets which does not allow the 49ers to put that many guys in the box. This is not your normal NFL offense and Gurley is going to do work! Do not overthink this pick in cash games and get him in your lineups. You should start your cash lineups by clicking his name on every site.
Ezekiel Elliott – This might not be a great spot on paper with a low game total of 41.5 and Dallas implied team total of 20 points, but Elliott has not rushed over 20 times in his last 3 games. It is hard to find that type of usage at the running back position in the NFL anymore and Dallas knows they will only go as far as Elliott will take them. The Redskins are ranked 30th DVOA against the run and in a tight 2 point spread, I think the Cowboys lean on him heavy in this spot. This divisional matchup is extremely important for both teams if they think they have a shot at the playoffs. I also really like what I see with his last 3 games against the Redskins averaging 25 rushing attempts, 110 yards, and almost 2 TDs. If he gets to these numbers, we are set.
LeSean McCoy – Hear me out on this pick before you start throwing rotten tomatoes at me here. McCoy has seen double-digit touches over his last two weeks, so his usage is trending up. He is way too cheap for those numbers at $5600 on DK and $6200 on FD. Indianapolis defense is just not that great this year and even though they are better against the run than the pass, I think having Derek Anderson starting this week benefits McCoy here. He is a much better QB than Peterman and understands that if they are going to have a chance to win this game, that the best playmaker they have in McCoy is going to need a 20+ touch game. We should see double-digit carries in this game and I can see maybe 5 – 7 targets as well. He is underpriced for the workload I think he will see and what we have seen the last 2 weeks with a worse QB under center. Fire up some McCoy in cash this week!
Wide Receivers
Robert Woods – Cooper Kupp has already been ruled out this game, so Woods should see an uptick in targets in this game. He would be more of a DraftKings play for me than FanDuel at his price, but Kupps 21% market share is going to have to go to someone and with Woods already dominating the target share at 26%, I can see this number hitting over 30% this game. Rams are going to be very popular and Woods should see ownership in the 25% range in GPPs and is going to be very popular in cash games.
Jarvis Landry – This is absolutely a smash spot for Landry and he is way too cheap on FanDuel @ $6500. Tampa Bay ranks last in so many categories to include passer rating (123.9), passing yards per attempt (9.2), and touchdown rate (8.1). They also are allowing 173 yards per game out of the slot this year and Landry has been running 60 percent of his pass routes from the slot. M.J. Stewart is a horrible defender and Landry is going to tune this guy up for multiple TDs in this spot. Landry is seeing 23% of the target share and 18% of the air yards. Landry will be one of my highest owned WRs this week in all formats.
Antonio Callaway – I don’t think I have seen a WR do less with 10 targets in a game than I did with Callaway last week. He only caught 2 of them and put up a horrific 3.9 fantasy points. We have to forget about this poor outing and not let recency bias creep into our heads. He saw the volume last week to put up a nice game and just didn’t capitalize. He is only $4800 on FanDuel and would rather go after a guy like him than a Reynolds who I think is going to be more chalky. We should see single digit ownership on him in a game where we want to attack the Tampa Bay secondary as stated above with Landry. I will have a lot of Callaway in both cash and GPPs and hope people jump off him after his bad outing last week.
Tight Ends
David Njoku – I want to start off saying I would not run 2 WR and a TE from the Browns in cash, but I don’t mind stacking Mayfield with Landry / Njoku or Landry / Callaway. I never like to be all in on a team in cash games, but Njoku does need to be talked about here. He played 60/74 snaps last week with 12 targets last week and 72/80 snaps with 11 targets 2 weeks ago. He is trending up and again gets a bad Tampa Bay team. He is absolutely too cheap for the opportunity he has been given and I can see Mayfield slinging the ball 40+ times this game opening up plenty of targets for Njoku. In the 3 starts that Mayfield as made this year, Njoku has 30 total targets. Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed the more receiving yards per game to tight ends all season. Fire him up in cash games at a cheap tag.
Zach Ertz – There is not a TE in the league that sees his consistent volume of targets (9, 11, 14, 10 , 13, and 10) this year and he plays every down. He saw 100% of the snaps last week, but he is priced up. I am not sure I can get to him in cash games, but if you are spending up he is the guy to target this week.
Defense
Baltimore – We are getting a Baltimore defense for cheap because they Saints are rolling into town with their high powered offense, however, I still like Baltimore here. The Ravens are extremely aggressive on defense that rolls out 5 or more defensive backs 80% of the time..They also blitz the QB 35% of the time which ranks 3rd highest in the NFL. The downside is Brees is good at getting the ball out of his hands when being blitzed and I probably wouldn’t be as excited to take them in this spot if it was in the dome, but with this being a Ravens home game, I am very interested.
Jacksonville – The price on FanDuel for this defense is only $4400 and I love them in this spot. This is my favorite defense for price and matchup as the Texans strength is in the air and Jacksonville has straight up shut down corners. I don’t ‘think you get cute in this spot at defense and you plug in Jacksonville on FanDuel and if you have the money you can get to them over the Ravens on DK. I smell a pick 6 or two in this game!
Keg Stands
This week in Keg Stands I don’t want to talk about a GPP approach, but more on analyzing your data you have collected over the first 6 weeks of the season to continue to build up that ROI. I have noticed that my DK h2h matches are right around the 60% mark which is not bad, but my FD h2h win percentage is 75% with a 36% ROI as you can see below. That tells me that I have been doing much better on FD than DK so far and I will push some of my volume on FanDuel this week as I continue to watch my win % and ROI. You can make the best lineups in the world each week, but if you are not in the right contests and do not watch how you are doing, then you will never be as successful at DFS as you could be. It is important to look back at your data and see where your success is and push some of your money in that direction to increase your ROI. Please take the time to look at analyze your data and make those decisions to become a more profitable player long term.
ROI WIN
Before I Go…
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