Welcome to another edition of the Barn Burner. Today is our official first cash game slate. 10 games on the board and many interesting options. Picking the right goalie tonight will be challenging as I see no clear-cut choice. Every goalie carries risk on tonight’s slate. As our NHL betting model marinates during the first 7-10 days, it excepts low scoring games between BOS/BUF and WPG/STL. The model expected an over the total in Vancouver in it was right, however, many were surprised that the Canucks did most of the scoring. Jones and the Sharks were a huge disappointment yesterday, but it doesn’t get as low as the Bruins and Marchand yet again acting like a moron.
I’ve spent way too much time trying to find a goalie and I’m going to go cheap on DK and trust the NHL model + Vegas for my FD goalie. My shortlist consisted of Bishop, Mrazek, Murray and Rinne. Bishop is the highest favorite, but that Coyote team finished the year strong and there is a risk. The NHL betting model has the Coyotes with a xITT of 2.16 and Bishop is projected to stop 26 shots. In a similar case last night, Jones shit the bed. Murray is in a good spot vs the Capitals. They traveled overnight, and they are playing b2b. They are coming off a huge 7-0 win vs the Bruins on Stanley cups banner night. This sets them up for a huge hungover and Murray and Pittsburgh can benefit. Rinne is Rinne and they are playing vs a crappy Rangers team. I don’t like that this game is on the road for Rinne. He’s getting older and expect some regression this year and he’s 8.1k. Mrazek is an interesting choice and he caught my attention this morning when I saw the NHL betting model had the Islanders has the second lowest ITT on the slate. Sharp money has been coming in on the Hurricanes all day and moved the ML from -140 to -160. At 7.1k he’s a very interesting option this evening.
Goalies:
#1 Bishop
#2 Murray
#3 Mrazek
Value plays: Very interesting night for some solid value. If you decide to pay down in goal and grab 1-2 solid value guys it will open up a lot of room for the many top-tier players. At the center there is not much expect Brock Nelson on DK at 4.2k. He’s moving from 3rd to second with the departure of Tavares and he will see some PP2 ice time. On the wings, we have 2 very interesting options. Kyrou (STL 3.1k DK 3.4K FD) is cheap on both sides. He will be playing on STL 2 alongside Scheen and Schwartz. Kyrou is a sniper and is not shy to shoot the puck. He also plays on PP2. Hitting value with him won’t be an issue. In a similar spot, we have Kahun (CHI) I don’t know much about him, but he has a solid preseason champ and he will be playing on CHI1 alongside Toews and Debrincat. Ice time won’t be an issue, he will have many opportunities vs the worst team in the leave and he will also have some PP2 ice time. The last winger to consider is Reinhart on DK, he 4.4k and plays alongside with Eichel and Skinner on BUF1 and PP1. My only concern here is that Eichel and Skinner shot a lot so I don’t expect Reinhart will have a high floor but he has upside on a line which we expect many goals to be scored. Not much value on defense except for Johnson and Parayko on DK only. Both don’t have a high ceiling but have been safe. The only both clock some high ice time.
Top value plays:
#1 Kahun
#2 Kyrou
#3 Reinhart
My gosh so many options at centers that I’ll have to keep this short and sweet. Mackinnon is cheap on DK vs his xFPTS and I want him in my line up but its going to be between him or Seguin. Seguin will provide you the highest floor with an average of 4 SOG per game. Malkin is also cheap and he’s in a great spot vs a hungover Caps team. I have huge expectation for O’reilly now playing alongside Tarasenko but it’s a tough match up vs the Jets. He has a high floor also and should hit value his SOG+BK. He plays on the PP and PK.
#1 Seguin
#2 Mackinnon
#3 Malkin
#4 O’Reilly
#5 Nelson
Finding the right balance on the wings will be important tonight. The best value is presented in that position with Kahun and Kyrou. If you are rolling with Seguin at center, you will want some Crosby/Malkin exposure and Hornqvist and Kessel are cheap on DK. My favorite cash player on the wing tonight is Atkinson but he’s priced 6.5k on DK and 7k on FD……that’s way too expensive. Skinner is a shooting machine. He was in my lineups so many times last year, but his scoring upside was low on the CAR3. This year he’s playing with Eichel and we should see this change. It’s not a great matchup vs the Bruins but he’s floor is great for the price on DK.
Top Wingers:
#1 Atkinson (if you can fit him)
#2 Hornqvist
#3 Skinner
At defense, it’s pretty simple. At first it’s overwhelming when you look at all the talent playing tonight but once you dig in its pretty. On the value, we already covered Johnson and Parayko. I really liked Barrie early on this afternoon but he’s no longer on my shortlist. If he would be playing on the 1st D pairing, then that would be a different story. My core defenseman tonight will be Klingberg. Correlate him with Seguin and you have yourself a SOLID floor in cash game. The estimated SOG+BS floor for both of them is over 11. If you are going with Atkinson, then Werenski become a top option at defense. With Jones out of the line-up, he will see much more ice time. He’s on PP1 and PK1. Until Jones comes back he will be a safe cash Let’s.
Lets take a quick look at the NHL betting model and see if we can find a GPP edge over our competition. AS per the model, the Penguins are overpriced however the model doesn’t take in consideration that it’s a B2B and only it doesn’t know that yesterday was the Stanley cup banner night. The rest of the games are in line with Vegas and we don’t have any +EV to bet on. Now here is the interesting part, the total. The model has 2 games over 7 goals. NYR/NSH have an xO/U of 7.4 goals and the Predators have an xITT of 4.51. The second game the model thinks it will be a blowout is the CHI/OTT. The xO/U (expected over under) is 7.3. Both teams have an xITT of over 3.30 so it wouldn’t be a bad move to stack both these teams. The two biggest unders projected by the model are the games between BUF/BOS and WNP/STL.
GL tonight and see you in our NHL slack channel
