Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football.  I’m talking before Tecmo Bowl and face masks.  The beauty of the wishbone formation, and this article series, is you knew what you were getting.  It was going to be announced as fundamentally sound and maybe a bit chalky.  But, you were still going to have to stop it………..and that was the problem, most couldn’t.  I write the same way.  Here it is big boy, come and get it!

I am a senior writer, senior coach, and lead content editor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible.  Give me a follow on Twitter and YouTube for the latest content drops and video uploads.  Use code CHOP for a 10% discount, and get busy learning/winning today!!  As always, your best compliment is retweeting and/or sharing this information across social media.  Thank you!

Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction.  It’s not a thorough slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece.  I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth.  Learning NFL the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.  Certainly, follow me for “process” or validation.  But, we are going to disagree….and that’s perfectly fine.  You only need to know WHY you disagree with me, and you need to be able to trust your own gut and think for yourself.  That is the only way you will truly be a great DFS NFL player.

Week 2 NFL Vegas Odds Table

We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first.  Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total.  The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas.  The underdog is obviously the underdog.  And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display.  We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.

NFL DFS Week 2 “Top 3s”

I’m not going to break down every game and every playable player for you.  I will, however, give you MY favorites.  My favorite games, players at each position, and gpp plays.  I’m going to keep it rather short, though.  I’m curating my own content and research, and I expect you to do the same.  And, I’m absolutely honored, you consider me one of your curated sources and trusted weekly opinions.  I love listening to our podcast page, both free and VIP-only.  I also use our Research Station very heavily all year long (tutorial here).

Top 3 NFL Games to Target

LAC @ BUF – I mention this game for a couple reasons.  First, it should be chalky.  Everyone knows to attack Buffalo everywhere and anywhere, including with the opposing DST hawking for turnovers.  The combo of Gordon/Chargers defense shouldn’t be understated in it’s potential safety if we ran this slate 100 times.  But, it’s also worth nothing the potential trap.  West coast teams traveling east for early Sunday starts bear watching.  The Chargers notoriously start seasons slow.  Buffalo will NOT lose every game this year.  But, is this the one they catch a team flat-footed?  It looks chalky, but has some obvious traps in it, too.  Quite the fun game to project.

KCC @ PIT – Obvious shootout potential!  And, it will be chalky.  KC couldn’t stop the Chargers, but KC also scored like crazy with unique play-calling and a truckload of weapons that are hard to defend.  Add in Pittsburgh returning to the comforts of home for their own troubled QB and a new changing of the underpriced guard while the holier than thou game’s best sits at home wondering why he isn’t being shown the love.  The game goes on, and this one just might be a barn burner between two teams that will never be described as defensive juggernauts.

DET @ SF49 – An old adage immediately pops to mind:  Two bad defenses can lead to shootouts.  And, I don’t think a lot will look here.  Matt Stafford and Jimmy G were letdowns for the most part.  But, that’s the best part.  When others ignore games or players, it makes a lot of sense to pay attention.  People overreact.  Now, I’m not saying go all in on game stacks here (although you could on a slate like the 4pm only).  I’m saying look deep into it and unearth the litany of targets the DET receivers saw.  Or, maybe a running back or two with dirt cheap pricing facing a road team that couldn’t stop the run….

Top 3 Quarterbacks

Allow me to first show you how this works.  I’m narrowing down to my favorite 3 at each spot.  My personal list might be a good bit bigger.  QBs, for example, have me narrowing down quickly from 32 to 6.  But, from there we start splitting hairs.  The 7 are: Alex Smith, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Brees, Goff, and Keenum.  These are QBs I believe can “win the week” at their positions.  But, now with a gun to my head, I have to look at the first three I’ll be excited to reach for in my core lineups.  I’ll take tourney shots with all of them at varying exposures.

Alex Smith – On the slate this week, we see five or six easy to spot quarterbacks that have high floors and could also win the slate with big games.  Only one is priced over $7600 on Fanduel (Drew Brees).  The rest are all under that price point and offer us a tremendous opportunity to save a little scratch for big RBs or WRs.  Alex has a tremendous floor, and if you watch the video below, you will see him checking nearly every box that historically produces value per $1000.

Case Keenum – If you want to pay down a little more, Keenum is under $7000 and has cash-safe targets in both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders at the moment……and very little in the way of a running game based on last week.  Keenum is also surprisingly efficient ranking 14th in Total QBR on the week.  Efficiency matters, but so does being favored, at home, and implied to score over 24 points vs a defense currently ranked very middling vs the pass in Oakland.  DEN also has a tremendous historical home field advantage during the first two weeks of the season while other teams are trying to get into game shape in some cases.

Drew Brees – I know I said to pay down when a position is deep, but c’mon man……you still can’t completely overlook this spot.  29 implied points indicates 4+ TDs and despite the 8 point spread, to get those four tuddies, a LOT of throwing is going to need to take place.  CLE was ok vs the pass last week, but how much of that was Ben just feeding them balls and how much of that was an active pass rush and secondary just forcing the bad decisions?  Drew Brees at home is a much better QB than Big Ben on the road.  That would be easy to document.  Slate-winning upside just can’t be denied at any cost.

 

Too many wins to count!  Three over $20,000 alone.  From small slates to large, showdowns to primetimes, cash to gpps, DFS Army continues to dominate the leaderboards.  You can find the biggest on our Wall of Wins, and specifically read DBarlow’s $250k story —> HERE!

Top 3 Running Backs

Melvin Gordon – I don’t normally like road running backs, especially those heading east for early games from a western time zone.  But, this is just a different scenario and shows us why we don’t play DFS by rigid rules.  There are ALWAYS exceptions.  Melvin Gordon showed us he is going to get the work.  Gordon saw 13 targets to go with his 15 carries.  Austin Eckler, my ass.  He only served to spell Gordon.  Buffalo is a terribad defense in all facets, and Gordon may be on the road but he is cash viable this week….and might be a little lower owned.  He has the workload providing the floor, and has 2 TD upside in any soft matchup.

James Conner – The Chalk strikes again!  Sure, he saw a price increase, but $7000 for facing the 32nd ranked run defense is just still too cheap.  People will regret not using him this week, and you might even see his ownership higher than week 1.  I’m considering a gpp fade in tourneys, but Conner is still one of my favorite cash plays due to an insane usage of 36 touches!  Maybe the Steelers are using him up before LeVeon returns, or maybe they are simply built to run the rock right down your throat.  It’s hard to imagine KC trying to take someone away when they have little shot at covering JuJu or Antonio, either.  KC is also ranked 23rd vs the pass.  Lock and load any and all Steelers!!

Dion Lewis – A very sneaky “hi/lo” pick here that should be safe enough for cash, especially if you are reaching for a big back like Gurley or Kamara.  Dion is rumored to be already overtaking Derrick Henry for the lion’s share of the workload.  For only $6500, he received 21 touches (16 of them were carries) and will have decent 3rd down work at home.  Lewis might make a nice cash game flex option on either site.

Bonus – Adrian Peterson – Yes, he’s old, but he also checks a lot of boxes if WAS is going to keep using him like this.  26 carries and a crazy shocking 3 targets caught a lot of the industry by surprise.  He is home this week, favored, and getting the work between the 2os and in the red zone.  My main questions are:  Can he bounce back at his age from that workload?  And, is that workload even secure?  I need to personally see more, but I won’t argue too hard if you decide to run him out there in gpps and possibly cash games.

Top 3 Wide Receivers

Larry Fitzgerald – We aren’t going to make this section super thought-provoking.  Fitzy saw 10 targets despite Sam Bradford looking shaky, and he also checks some interesting boxes that lead to historical value:  Road Dog and Implied Under 18 points.  These are situations where teams have no shot at winning late, must throw, and receivers benefit most in garbage time………I see garbage time in this one.

Cooper Kupp – On the other side of the field, Cooper Kupp just continues to see red zone work.  I know people love thinking about Eric Decker, but this is the new Decker!  Adding to that red zone work most benefiting Fanduel customers, Kupp saw 9 targets giving him a safe floor for $6300.

Quincy Enunwa – I’m looking at this game and I see two mediocre matchups.  Enunwa was an enigma (yes, I’ve been waiting a year for that) in that most people didn’t play him outside the super small slates.  But, he attracted 10 targets and makes one hell of a cash punt at the minimum of $5000 still.

Top 3 Tight Ends

George Kittle – Holy targets, Batman!  Kittle drew 9 in a pretty boring game last week from the SF side of the ball.  He also averaged 10 yds per reception and might be the focal point of the offense being that Pierre Garcon looks like a forgotten man again.  While others are fighting over Jordan Reed or Jack Doyle, I will take the only TE on the board checking every box…..home, favored, seeing 8+ targets, red zone work, and implied to score over 24 points.  The only other close tight end is Reed, but he only saw 5 targets last week.  I agree Alex Smith will use him more as the year goes on…..if he can stay healthy.  I’ll opt for Kittle instead based on the info at hand.

Ricky Seals-Jones – You might hear around the industry how “cash safe” RSJ is this week.  I won’t deny that on one principle…..ownership.  He is cheap and you saw what Jared Cook did to the Rams on Monday Night Football.  But, technically, Ricky isn’t at home, he isn’t getting the targets yet, and his team isn’t implied to score 18 points.  Those are all arrows pointing down, and pointing to a mistake by the masses.  I’d urge caution on what might be a popular play.  But, I also won’t be surprised in this copy-cat league to see him fed the ball and easily hit value.  My point is:  Based on the numerical data, it’s a risk……and we don’t like risk in cash games.

Jonnu Smith – If we love us some running back backups when the bellcow gets injured, why not the TE backup when a cash-safe staple gets injured?  Jonnu slid in place of Delanie and grabbed 3 targets.  Add in Delanie’s six and that makes a possible 9.  We like TEs at home, and we like them cheap for such a volatile position.  Is $4200 on Fanduel cheap enough for you?  He might be my favorite cash punt on the entire slate.  I’ll take the $1000 savings over RSJ if I’m going to take a chance at tight end.

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Top 3 Defenses

Los Angeles Chargers – Many people will simply attack Buffalo all year long.  Nathan Peterman is obviously throwing more balls to the opposition than his own receivers, and the Chargers are an elite defense on paper.  When you see an offense implied to score fewer than 18 points, you just lock and load that opposing defense.  Don’t think twice.

Los Angeles Rams – Yes, I know they are the highest priced defense on the slate, and likely also the chalkiest on the afternoon slate.  But, it’s for good reason.  A stout pass rush coupled with takeaway power has already stolen 3 interceptions (one returned for a touchdown) on the young season.  Add in Vegas’ 10 point spread favoring the Rams and you also have an easy recipe for what should be the Cardinals in “chuck it” mode while the Rams defenders can sit back with their mouths open while said pass rush just keeps applying pressure on the shaky Sam Bradford.  Easy cash play.

Atlanta Falcons – A little sneaky, the Falcons might go a bit overlooked with the above two obvious spots in play.  But, the Falcons also have gameflow favoring them, a Panthers team that just lost a key piece in their stud TE Greg Olsen (making them easier to gameplan), and a potentially turnover prone QB when balls start to sail on him.  Add in the implied total of 19.5 and we have an indication again that the Falcons are in a very solid spot to return value for the third cheapest price on Fanduel at only $3400.  Great salary saving option!

Remember, my Top 3 GPP picks are yet to come….keep reading!

We have fun at DFS Army.  There is nothing like a little friendly competition among friends……….and bragging rights!  Every week, we plan to host a league on Draftkings where we compete in a shark-infested GPP where the top two spots advance to a season ending final to earn more cash and even special swag like hats, tshirts, bottle openers, coozies, logo’d carry bags, and more.  But, you have to be a member to gain access to all these additional prizes…

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Top 3 GPP Plays

Big Ben/James Conner/JuJu – We don’t usually run RBs with QBs, but it sure worked with the Saints last week and Brees/Kamara/Thomas.  And, this spot is defensively worse.  At least the Bucs could theoretically defend the run on paper.  KC can’t even do that.   Ben will have people sour and afraid to use him.  If they do, they will likely pair him with Antonio Brown.  And, if they pivot to JuJu, they won’t likely be using James Conner in their stacks.  Run it back with Tyreek because you will be unique with JuJu and Conner.

ATL defense – With all the LA Chargers and LA Rams chalk talk, no one will see a similar situation setting up for the Atlanta Falcons.  If we like to target offenses implied to score under 20 points, the Carolina Panthers are the only other one this week.  And, you want cheap?  $3400 on Fanduel is about as low as you go.  We only have 3 teams priced the same or lower.  Total dumpster diving for a team set up in a premium spot.  You might just get lucky….and at a volatile position like defense, that is what it takes to win.

Rob Gronkowski – The tight end spot is littered with cheapies in good spots.  In fact, no one is within $1300 of Gronk on Fanduel.  Also, hugely popular picks at running back and wide receiver are priced up near $9000.  Let’s toss in the perceived horrible matchup against Jacksonville on the road and people will use that excuse to bail.  That’s when you pounce!!  You have a completely different construction due to spending up when they spend down and down when they spend up.  Things break your way, you wind up in a lonely spot………the top.  I really don’t think I need to waste time telling you how matchup proof Gronk is, do I?

NFL DFS Breakdown Video – “Box Checkers” A Hyper-Simple Method to Narrow Your Player Pool

But, We’re Not Done!

I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself.  And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out.  The cash players are often highly owned.  They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots.  When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask The Geek, Donuts, Keg, Puggle, DFSUpNorth, ThunderDan, BigMarley, ScottiB, and our other staff members for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors.  But, you can only do so as a VIP.  Our Slack chat forum is where the magic happens, and it’s where these coaches live!!

Bookmark this article because I will be updating the section below with a lot of pertinent articles as they drop throughout the week.  My intention is for you to rely on this single piece for most of the important reading you do any given week.  Don’t forget to use code CHOP for your discount when signing up at DFS Army.com to unlock your 20% discount.  And, don’t forget to give me a follow out on Twitter via the link back at the top.  I am usually trying to foster discussion out there, too.

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