Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I’m talking before Tecmo Bowl and face masks. The beauty of the wishbone formation, and this article series, is you knew what you were getting. It was going to be announced as fundamentally sound and maybe a bit chalky. But, you were still going to have to stop it………..and that was the problem, most couldn’t. I write the same way. Here it is big boy, come and get it!

I am a senior writer, senior coach, and lead content editor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible. Give me a follow on Twitter and YouTube for the latest content drops and video uploads. Use code CHOP for a 10% discount, and get busy learning/winning today!! As always, your best compliment is retweeting and/or sharing this information across social media. Thank you!

Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a thorough slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning NFL the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level. Certainly, follow me for “process” or validation. But, we are going to disagree….and that’s perfectly fine. You only need to know WHY you disagree with me, and you need to be able to trust your own gut and think for yourself. That is the only way you will truly be a great DFS NFL player.

Week 1 NFL Vegas Odds Table

We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.

NFL DFS Week 1 “Top 3s”

I’m not going to break down every game and every playable player for you. I will, however, give you MY favorites. My favorite games, players at each position, and gpp plays. I’m going to keep it rather short, though. I’m curating my own content and research, and I expect you to do the same. And, I’m absolutely honored, you consider me one of your curated sources and trusted weekly opinions. I love listening to our podcast page, both free and VIP-only. I also use our Research Station very heavily all year long (tutorial here).

Top 3 NFL Games to Target

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans – This game is just obvious. It’s likely the chalk game of the NFL week, especially the Saints side of things. Tampa had an abysmal secondary last year, ranking dead last against the pass. Does anyone know a QB that can take advantage of that? Everything the Saints have is in play in some fashion from Brees to Kamara and Thomas to Watson to Ginn and Meredith to even rookie backup Boston Scott and the defense. It’s so obvious, a complete fade in GPPs isn’t out of the question because most lineups will have at least small pieces of this game somewhere. On the flip side, Mike Evans and Peyton Barber make intriguing plays, too. The game just has a lot going for it as a traditional NFC South shootout in New Orleans.

Houston @ New England – Another fairly obvious spot, and like the New York Yankees in MLB, everyone loves playing some Patriots in NFL. Brady, Gronk, the running backs like Burkhead or White, and current lead receiver Chris Hogan will be popularly chalky. And, similarly, people will think they are being cute by being openly excited by the return of DeShaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. I will toss out Will Fuller as highly playable, as well. With weapons on both sides of the ball, there are a lot of players to choose from here, and the game should be rather exciting to watch on opening weekend.

Kansas City @ LA Chargers – This game isn’t exactly going to slide under any radars, but it won’t carry the ownership of the previous two in my opinion. Sexy names like Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce will take to the field in a battle against another division rival. NFL Division games can be unpredictable, making the Chiefs and rookie Patrick Mahomes intriguing GPP options while the world might opt for a “wait and see” approach with the young QB citing “tough LAC secondary” as their reason masking their fears. The Chargers have their own stellar talent with always underowned Philip Rivers charging hard with Keenan Allen, Tyrell “The Gazelle” Williams and the return of Antonio Gates. Don’t forget Melvin Gordon sees loads of goal line work and should, again, be among league leaders when it comes to touchdowns. The KC defense didn’t get much better in the offseason, so this game should be exciting to watch and might find itself really chalky on the Afternoon Only slates.

Top 3 Quarterbacks

Allow me to first show you how this works. I’m narrowing down to my favorite 3 at each spot. My personal list might be a good bit bigger. QBs, for example, have me narrowing down quickly from 32 to 7. But, from there we start splitting hairs. The 7 are: Brady, Brees, Watson, Wilson, Cousins, Flacco, Rivers. These are QBs I believe can “win the week” at their positions. But, now with a gun to my head, I have to look at the first three I’ll be excited to reach for in my core lineups. I’ll take tourney shots with all of them at varying exposures.

Tom Brady – He might be expensive, but Touchdown Tommy is probably the best passer of the football this week when we combine safety and ceiling. Lots of weapons, he spreads the ball around, dissects defenses better than most, and has tons of Vegas support in this one. 6.5 point favorite, facing a HOU secondary that didn’t generate much in a pass rush (granted they were beat up), HOU ranked 31st in points allowed to QBs, and a week 1 low price point really has me wanting to pay up for the safety net that is this matchup. Consider it “buying points.” The more you spend on a QB, typically, the more consistent points you are locking up. However, Brady has potential to win the week facing such a poor defense, as well. We always want a high floor AND a high ceiling.

Kirk Cousins – Home, favored, implied to score nearly 4 touchdowns worth of points, facing SF ranked 29th in points allowed to QBs, and SF gave up 27 TDs through the air…………that makes this another great matchup for another quarterback with potential to win the week for $1000 less than Brady on FD and $700 less on DK. Cousins can be a bit up and down, but with a serviceable pass catching back, a solid tight end, and two very high quality receivers, his weaponry this year is much stronger across the board…..add in a soft matchup and positive game script, and you have a nice little value QB with chances to finish top 3 on the week.

Drew Brees – This one is tricky. I would imagine most people will focus on Alvin Kamara, but I don’t think Brees will be completely forgotten, either. The game is chalky and the matchup is obvious. That said, I want a lot of shares, and I think I gain a little leverage with Brees. It feels a little risky in that the Saints emphasized the run last year. But, Tampa was also “solid” vs the run. They were, however, horrendous vs the pass. Our Research Station shows the Bucs as allowing 21st most points to QBs, but reality also states the Bucs were 31st in DVOA and 29th in yards allowed per pass. Both Brees and Michael Thomas are in cake matchups with secure floors and potentially huge ceilings, making them my favorite stack on the week in a game many will be focused on Kamara and will be afraid to take RB/WR or QB/RB in every effort to overuse the term “correlation” they’ve read so much about but don’t really understand. When people get fearful, we should get greedy.

We had some huge winners last year. Tops was DBarlow and his $250,000 1st prize. But, we had a couple heading to King of the Beach, we had another $150,000 winner, and several more 5-figure wins. You can find all of them on our Wall of Wins, and specifically read DBarlow’s story —> HERE!

Top 3 Running Backs

Obligatory Rex Burkhead/James White statement – We don’t trust NE running backs outside of GPPs. When you think you have it predicted, you wind up wrong. Even in smash spots with big positive game scripts, NE backs still carry lots of risk. You won’t see them in this section often, if at all. Not that I avoid all risk, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense when the early season is so loaded with value at all positions.

Todd Gurley – I really don’t have a lot to say here other than lock and load. Gurley is perhaps the best RB in the league, the safest, the most secure in his workload, and with the highest upside. He’s right up there with Bell, Johnson, Elliot, etc….and maybe arguably higher. That said, he provides an underthought of hammer play on the Th-Mon slate if you like those monsters. The Raiders just don’t have the squad to be anything more than a neutral matchup with the Rams, and neutral matchups are positive ones for talents like Gurley.

Alex Collins – Collins hasn’t been granted 3-down status yet, but it would be unwise to overlook him this week. You get a potential bellcow at a reduced price with positive game flow if he’s not as featured in the passing game facing the worst team in the NFL last year vs the run. BUF gave up 18 touchdowns last year to RBs and our friend Collins saw 57% of the carries in the Red Zone. He will see quality touches! There is value in Collins, too. He is currently the 11th priced RB on Fanduel and projected 8th. While that’s not a sexy thing to point out, taking any and all value where you can get it “wins the week.” If we win the week in cash games, we stretch out bankrolls indefinitely while waiting for the big tourney weeks to vault us to the next level.

Peyton Barber – While we usually pay up at RB for secure workloads, we do need to remain open-minded to value backs in great matchups with their own secure loads. The risk here is if Tampa can keep this from blowing out to the point they have no choice but to throw. Barber is used some in the passing game. We can expect 15ish rushing attempts vs a defense that cares about stopping the pass more than the run, and if we see a few targets, we can get a 20 touch back, easily, for $5600 on FD and $4100 on DK. You don’t turn profits by remaining so rigid in your “rules” that you miss opportunities like these, even if game flow dictates Barber isn’t likely to have a week-winning game.

Top 3 Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas – Tampa Bay has a horrid secondary again, and while Drew Brees’ pass attempts dropped last year, Thomas’ target went up. In what features to be a high scoring night for the Saints, you are not going wrong in selecting one of the major pieces of production.

Nelson Agholor – I know it’s Thursday Night, but I can’t avoid my love for Agholor. Sliding into the WR1 role with an injured Alshon Jeffrey, you have cheap consistency in targets facing a soft secondary that gave up increased production to the position. Agholor was shining anyway, missing Alshon is just added boost to someone I was already targeting on the big slates.

Emmanuel Sanders – Noted chemistry with Keenum and averaging 8+ targets per game over 3 seasons. You don’t get much better floor for this price at a rather volatile position. The Seahawks aren’t what they used to be, travel into Mile High, and the Broncos have no legit option to catch passes at tight end or in the backfield. We know exactly where most of the targets are going……safe workloads are very important.

Top 3 Tight Ends

Benjamin Watson – New roles on new teams are always interesting and a little risky and we haven’t seen domination from a Saints TE since Jimmy Graham, but this matchup is very juicy for Watson. We don’t necessarily foresee a committee at TE, and we know the Bucs give up points, targets, yardage, and big plays to receivers of all kinds. Behind Kamara and Thomas, Watson might go a little overlooked in this one with ownership levels down near Ginn or Meredith, but a floor much higher and better Red Zone usage.

Rob Gronkowski – Again, it’s not secret news that Gronk is in another smash spot. It’s also important early in the season when we have underpriced players everywhere that afford us to get up to Gronk. When he faces a team prone to giving up points to the TE (only 3 teams allowed more TDs to TEs than HOU), and Brady has a few weeks to prepare, you can safely bet Gronk is going to get his chances. He’s obviously the top Red Zone target for the Pats, and he sees a lot of work between the 20s. He might see 10+ targets in this one easily. Gronk is usually priced as a lower top-tier WR, but has all the skills/usage of a top tier WR. Most weeks, he has inherent value built into his price based on the position he plays. Take advantage!

Delanie Walker – Mr. Consistency always seems to go overlooked. If I had to pick one TE for cash games, it would usually be Walker. But, even I rarely seem to use the guy. He often falls in a sort of tight end purgatory when it comes to pricing. He’s sort of the Al Horford of the NFL. But, this week he’s squarely on the radar being that the Dolphins repeatedly got torched by the tight end last year. Big floor in Walker added to matchup boost and high ceiling means we need to strongly consider Delanie in all formats this week.

Are you a sportsbettor? We have added some of the best handicappers in the game to our sister site…… BeatTheBookie! Full slack memberships, and an immediate savings when you become a VIP on both DFS Army sites. The sportsbetting industry is seeing a massive influx of new hobbyists as the country, and states, scramble to legalize and regulate betting on sports. Get the education and advice you need to shorten your growth curve now! They are routinely 4-0 on a week, and have a data-driven approach instead of hearing some bar story from your Uncle Vinny. Get in the game!!

Top 3 Defenses

Baltimore Ravens – There just is no better spot for a defense this week. The Ravens draw the inept Bills who ranked 19th in running the football (with LeSean McCoy mind you) and 28th in passing the football. Yuck. Give me a home team, positive game flow, a lot of Vegas support, and a defense that can both get after a QB and take the ball away, and you have a very chalky defense pick. Don’t sweat it in cash. Hedge the volatility of the position by taking other options in gpps or larger leagues.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Tough, tough call to look immediately at the Jaguars as the alternative to the Ravens. This is the stout analysis you are paying for! But, seriously, we have a solid road game script favoring the Jags, a potentially turnover prone Eli Manning forced to throw the ball more than usual, and an elite defense that ranked second in the league in both sacks and takeaways. If you remember last year, the Jags won many a gpp for people. Not much changed heading into this year, especially in this matchup.

New Orleans Saints – Many people shy away from high game total games. I have learned shootouts can be some of the sneakiest DST games of all. Everyone seems to think because there will be no shutout that the DST is not going to perform. But, when the ball is going back and forth in the air all day, there are tons of opportunity for turnovers and sacks. Add in Fitztragic and a weak receiving corps outside of Mike Evans, and I’m listening. Toss in the fact the Saints tend to let you run all over them so they can focus on defending the pass, and I’m very excited to let Fitzy just lean back and fire at all the black jerseys on the field indiscriminately.

Remember, my Top 3 GPP picks are yet to come….keep reading!

Our Freeroll below directly coincides with our release of FantasyDraft on our Domination Station Optimizer! You can now play all three sites we brag about with the industry’s most customizable optimizer while using our proprietary projections for all major sports like NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, and Nascar. Enter via the link below…

Click this link and enter ASAP!

Top 3 GPP Plays

Brees/Thomas – Kamara, Kamara, Kamara…..(to paraphrase Jan from The Brady Bunch when bitching about how Marcia always got the attention). I’m ok with the full fade of Kamara based on under 20 touches historically, and massively unsustainable TD efficiency last year. I think he’s a great RB, but I don’t think he’s Gurley, Fournette, or even David Johnson. Yet, he carries the price. Based on purely ownership and industry buzz for months, I can easily fade him. On top of that, Tampa Bay allows opponents to throw all over them. People finally figured out New Orleans is “run first,” but people are slow to react or think outside the box. While they focus on Kamara, you can be focused on the Saints passing game. This is a solid matchup for Drew Brees, and a monster matchup for Michael Thomas. Combine the two at lower ownership, while fading Kamara in the same game, and you have a world class pivot. Throw in Benjamin Watson for an even riskier shot at big rewards.

Flacco/Brown – Buffalo is a weird defense in that they try and limit the shorter passing. While Michael Crabtree is still a threat, especially in the Red Zone, John “The Sheriff” Brown seems to have the sickle cell controlled for now, had a great camp, has incredible chemistry with Flacco, and is cheap and flying under every radar. Brown gets deep in a hurry and Flacco is cheap, too, providing a high floor with a solid ceiling in this matchup. Combining the two has the upside to win your GPPs if your more expensive players also have big games.

Brady/Hogan/Fuller – We all know Brady is going to likely spread the ball around. Naked Brady is a thing. That said, Chris Hogan is the primary weapon in the passing game not named Gronk. Running it back with DeAndre Hopkins is beyond obvious. But, what people aren’t maybe paying attention to is Belichick taking Nuk away completely, including “tiempo de garbaj.” Will Fuller might be a massive TD regression candidate, but he is also a player than can get loose in a hurry when Hopkins is smothered. In the event we see all the Hopkins ownership come out flat, this game stays close on a likely great game from Fuller…..at a far cheaper price tag, allowing other shots elsewhere in your lineups.

NFL DFS Breakdown Video

But, We’re Not Done!

I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask The Geek, Donuts, Keg, Puggle, DFSUpNorth, ThunderDan, BigMarley, ScottiB, and our other staff members for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our Slack chat forum is where the magic happens, and it’s where these coaches live!!

Bookmark this article because I will be updating the section below with a lot of pertinent articles as they drop throughout the week. My intention is for you to rely on this single piece for most of the important reading you do any given week. Don’t forget to use code CHOP for your discount when signing up at DFS Army.com to unlock your 20% discount. And, don’t forget to give me a follow out on Twitter via the link back at the top. I am usually trying to foster discussion out there, too.

NFL DFS “The Wishbone” Lineup Advice and Strategy for Fanduel and Draftkings Week One Football

Week 1 NFL Vegas Odds Table