Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I’m talking before Tecmo Bowl and face masks. The beauty of the wishbone formation, and this article series, is you knew what you were getting. It was going to be announced as fundamentally sound and maybe a bit chalky. But, you were still going to have to stop it………..and that was the problem, most couldn’t. I write the same way. Here it is big boy, come and get it!
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a thorough slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning NFL the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level. Certainly, follow me for “process” or validation. But, we are going to disagree….and that’s perfectly fine. You only need to know WHY you disagree with me, and you need to be able to trust your own gut and think for yourself. That is the only way you will truly be a great DFS NFL player.
Week 3 NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
NFL DFS Week 3 “Top 3s”
I’m not going to break down every game and every playable player for you. I will, however, give you MY favorites. My favorite games, players at each position, and gpp plays. I’m going to keep it rather short, though. I’m curating my own content and research, and I expect you to do the same. And, I’m absolutely honored, you consider me one of your curated sources and trusted weekly opinions. I love listening to our podcast page, both free and VIP-only. I also use our Research Station very heavily all year long (tutorial here).
Top 3 NFL Games to Target
NOS @ ATL – I think this one is rather obvious off the hop. Many will flock to this game hoping for a shootout. I think this game, based on their last five contests, can have a case made for a gpp-fade to dodge ownership and hope for a dud out of almost all of them. The 53.5 point total will definitely have mouths salivating, but I’m not sold on either QB yet. If the QBs have off days, we might wind up disappointed across the board with Tevin Coleman and Alvin Kamara also leaning hard on their QBs to get them the ball in the passing game.
SF49ers @ KCC – Here might be your primary game to watch. I don’t think KC cares about defense right now. I think they think they are just going to outscore you…..and they have been. I think they have the attitude of “we are going to score 40 and if you think you can do that, too, well…..let’s get it on!” The SF49er defense isn’t great either, but KC just has more weapons. I think your sneaky play here is a Kareem Hunt people have been dying to see do anything so far. We saw Tyreke Hill get fed in week 1 (and some in week 2), and we saw Travis Kelce get fed in week 2. Kareem Hunt will surprise a few people when they least expect it. Don’t drop your guard on him when favored at home and people expecting a shootout……but keep it to your gpp plays.
The rest – There isn’t so much another game I’m wanting to watch as there are offenses in spots I want to learn from. Can CHI destroy a bad ARI team on the road? Is it going to be the defense reeking havoc, or will the offense show signs of life with Trubisky actually coming off Allen Robinson to Trey Burton? Just how good are these Rams? Gurley seems like a lock, but Jared Goff is sneaky solid……adding Brandin Cooks has added a security to Goff and likely rendered him a cash viable QB in most spots. How will the return of Carson Wentz go? PHI also signed Jordan Matthews, and will this dramatically affect Nelson Agholor? That’s scary as overlooked as he was and the bargain he provided us the first two weeks. Is MIA for real? Is Ryan Tannehill usable? What about that time share with Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore? Can we get Drake over the 20 touch mark and really open him up? Is OAK as bad as their DVOA suggests across the board? If so, should we be attacking them like we assume we should be attacking Buffalo? I have a lot more questions, but I’ll be looking at these offenses more than watching single games for fantasy purposes this week.
Top 3 Quarterbacks
Allow me to first show you how this works. I’m narrowing down to my favorite 3 at each spot. My personal list might be a good bit bigger. QBs, for example, have me narrowing down quickly from 32 to 6. But, from there we start splitting hairs. The 7 are: Alex Smith, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Brees, Goff, and Keenum. These are QBs I believe can “win the week” at their positions. But, now with a gun to my head, I have to look at the first three I’ll be excited to reach for in my core lineups. I’ll take tourney shots with all of them at varying exposures.
Jared Goff – I’m sure this play shocks a few of you, but after looking long and hard at numbers, Goff is my lead dog so far. I don’t like it, but I see a Chargers defense struggling to defend the pass (they didn’t exactly shut down the Bills rookie). The Chargers are currently ranked 30th in DVOA vs the pass and 29th against the WR1. I like that Goff is home, favored in a solid way, and most importantly…..he’s efficient. He is currently ranked 3rd in Total QBR and 7th in yards per pass attempt. That’s solid for $100 less than Matt Ryan….and again, no one will see it. I can see you stacking with Todd Gurley here easily for a very nice floor. Gurley catches passes, too, and the Chargers are ranked 28th in DVOA vs pass catching backs. Food for thought, but where I might be headed when my other great options are nearly $1500 more expensive this week.
Matt Ryan – Speaking of Ryan, he’s in a great spot, too. However, these games vs NOS in the ATL have played to the under more than once. I see an equal likelihood of a shootout, but I’m concerned with Ryan’s efficiency. He ranks 15th in QBR and 17th in yards per attempt……….and that’s with throwing 71% of his air yards to Julio Jones! Where is the balance? I see this trend being great for Julio, but not so great for Matty Ice. I think he’s about the best option we have on the board this week, but the more I look, the more I don’t even like the week.
I’m disclaiming things immediately in an effort to be completely transparent with you, the reader. I’m not playing too heavily this week, and I believe being disciplined is your greatest asset in beating the DFS NFL game. Being able to play less when all the degenerates keep playing the same amounts (or even more than they should) will hold your profits longer, allowing you to hit those winning weeks harder. This is the kind of coaching advice our VIPs get from me on a weekly basis, and why our community is doing more than it’s part to make people better DFS players in every sport. It’s not debatable. We help you. Period.
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Carson Wentz – I believe a ton of people are going to be using Wentz in cash formats this week, but we have to temper expectations just a smidge. Did we learn nothing from MLB? Do we just toss a starter coming off the DL out there in cash games his first start back? Yes, I realize Wentz at 80% is an upgrade over Nick Foles right now, but does that mean he’s arguably the best play in terms of floor and ceiling available across 10+ games? I’m not so sure yet. I’d like to see his mobility. I’d like to see how aggressively his coaches play him. I’d also like to see a shootout over a 6 point favored game facing one of the weaker teams in the NFL in Indianapolis. We might see a lot more Corey Clement that we’d care to see leading us to a disappointing Carson Wentz day. This play might be popular, but it’s not without risk. And, we’d like to avoid risk, where possible, when we play everything but the largest gpps in DFS.
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Top 3 Running Backs
Corey Clement – If we hear Jay Ajayi sits, this is week one’s James Conner. Not in the same upside way, but in the price point “lock him in for cash” way. IND is not good vs the run by DVOA standards, and we have very positive game script with a 6 point spread favoring PHI at home implied to score almost 4 touchdowns this week. When there is no Ajayi and no Sproles, Clement becomes game flow independent and set for a huge workload in a game favoring grinding the clock down late. Don’t overthink this one at this price.
Dalvin Cook – I’m interested in following more news on this one. I’d like to know why he’s off to the slow start. I’m sure some of it has to do with shooting out at Lambeau last week, but I’m wondering where the efficiency as at this point. We should see workload, and we can’t deny the game flow here with a massive 16 point spread favoring the Vikes at home, but we do have to be concerned with how much Kirk Cousins is being asked to throw (more below) and we do have to wonder if Latavius Murray won’t steal work, if this game gets out of hand too quickly. I love the spot for Cook, but I wanted to make mention of the concerns and why he’s not exactly a lock-and-load play for cash games.
Kenyan Drake – Sometimes players just pop off the board at you. Such is the case with Drake this week with me. I’m not sure if I’ll keep him here in my top 3 or not because he is still splitting some carries with Frank Gore. I don’t know that I can guarantee 18+ touches for Kenyan, but it should be close. This is a great time to check pace of play numbers, and even our Correlation Matrix at DFS Army to see how much floor you can expect by just stacking him with Ryan Tannehill for cheap. OAK is travelling east and is horrible on defense right now. OAK ranks 31st vs the run and 28th vs pass catching backs specifically. That definitely sets up well for Kenyan. I’d just like to see a little more workload…….but I do like that price.
Top 3 Wide Receivers
Corey Davis – We might take some heat here, but we need value this week and it’s not as easy to come by as Quincy Enunwa was last week. In Corey Davis, we draw the Jags. But, volume matters and people will be spooked off by what is perceived to be a lockdown secondary. Did you realize so far this season, the Jags were only ranked 20th in DVOA vs the WR1 and were 23rd vs the WR2? I didn’t either, and that made Davis taste a little better for his price. Our bigger issue is his QB throwing to him. Where we all agree WRs benefit is in targets. Give me the opportunities and I’ll likely take my chances if I can also increase my floor/ceiling across the rest of my lineups as a result. Corey Davis is a disgustingly sneaky 4th in the league when it comes to target air yards with 47% of his entire team’s opportunity. Only Allen Robinson, O’Dell Beckham, and Julio Jones have a larger share. He is also 3rd (behind Jones and Michael Thomas) in percentage of workload. And, he is the only sub-6k player on Fanduel’s main slate with at least 20 targets (10 per game). The volume is there for this value play to pay off, and the matchup is not as gross as people will have you believe.
Adam Thielen – This guy just keeps going. He’s as consistent as they come in an offense with Kirk Cousins throwing to him in a better environment for both players over last year. I know we have a huge spread to contend with, but you have to get those points somehow and I’m not as confident in Dalvin Cook (or Latavius Murray) as I should be. Short, ball-control routes are not something to be ignored, and Theilen will see his share possibly even when this game is out of hand. I like him on both sites due to red zone work this week. His matchup is obviously cherry when looking at BUF’s 28th rank vs the pass in DVOA. Cousins has also aired it out 84 times on the young season, only outranked by Big Ben, Matt Stafford, and Joe Flacco for most attempts through two games. The volume should still be there given the efficiency issues at RB right now.
Julio Jones – Yes, I trashed Julio before the season started and said I’d never use him in cash games. Well, that was so three weeks ago! Actually, I’m not entirely comfortable with Julio in cash, but I have loved seeing his target volume absolutely dominate the team’s usage. We’d all like to see some positive touchdown regression, but opportunity is opportunity here. At $8900 on Fanduel, I don’t think Julio is some cash game lock you have to play, but I do think he boasts a strong floor against a defense we’ve seen can be thrown on like mad already. I think his ceiling is among the best in the league, and that combo is lethal this week. Julio has an insane 40+% target share with ATL, and when you look at target air yards percentage it’s even more disgusting……71%!!! Through 2 weeks, Julio is tied for 3rd with Golden Tate at 28 pure targets. Only Antonio Brown (33) and Michael Thomas (30) have more.
Top 3 Tight Ends
Zach Ertz – Enter Carson Wentz. We can’t say enough about the connection these two shared last year that made Ertz a household name and led him to be drafted along with Travis Kelce in your season long leagues. If Wentz is anything near himself, it’s a boost to Ertz for sure. Not that things were bad. Under Nick Foles, Ertz was still seeing targets aplenty (nearly a dozen per game so far), and he will always see Red Zone work. It helps that IND is currently 31st vs TE in DVOA and coming into PHI where TEs perform best.
Trey Burton – Perhaps my favorite pick on matchup alone. I just wish Trubisky was more efficient with the ball and was looking at more than Allen Robinson in his read progressions right now. ARI ranks 28th vs TEs and played the Rams last week. If they had faced another team with a TE, like WAS, we would see an even worse current DVOA. Jordan Reed wasn’t used like we thought and still put up 4/48/1 against the Cardinals in week 1.
Will Dissly – With SEA so banged up, Russell Wilson has had to lean heavily on his TE Will Dissly. Dissly was a shocker in week 1 with his 3/105/1 line, but backed it up last week with another 3/42/1 week. Dallas has struggled vs TEs this year and ranks 26th in DVOA. Dissly is home, favored and about the only dependable outlet Wilson has at the moment. Expecting another solid performance is not at all out of the question, and doesn’t even cost you $5000 on Fanduel……surprisingly a $1000 price drop for no apparent reason. He is only $3300 on Draftkings, where you’d rather see more receptions, but falling in the endzone always helps. Two consecutive weeks is great, and it won’t shock us to see him make it three.
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Top 3 Defenses
Minnesota Vikings – I don’t need to bore you with numbers to make my case here. It’s chalk. 16 point spread, at home, and an implied team total of 12 for Buffalo? Puleeeeeze. Our actual concern is whether or not Buffalo will even do anything warranting turnover potential. Will they have the ball enough? Will they even be inept enough to allow our defense to actually score any points? Shutouts are rare…..we need sacks and turnovers. This game might be so low, it actually serves to hurt our floor.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Here is a solid pivot, and you’ll get it with lower ownership (not that we care in cash games). But, when the lower ownership is there, and makes sense, I’ll take it. We know the Jags are elite. We know TEN is struggling at QB right now. Only 200 yards of offense last week? Neither QB is any good and will be forced to throw the ball at some point just to maintain their dignity. Delanie Walker is out. Derrick Henry is losing work to Dion Lewis. And, the Jags will just sit back and look for all the pick 6s they can eat. The 16.5 implied total for TEN says it all. Fire up the Jags when everyone is suckling the teet of Vikings disappointment.
Baltimore Ravens – Even further down the list, we find our week 1 chalk. Same situation…..horrible team total facing them (19 points), and a semi-west travelling east situation. Case Keenum isn’t as turnover prone as a rookie from Buffalo or a backup in TEN, but this game still presents a premium matchup for a very stout defense. Your choices at defense are pretty deep this week, so look to pay down if you really need the cap money. But, if you use deeper value at WR or TE, you can easily get up to these guys.
Remember, my Top 3 GPP picks are yet to come….keep reading!
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Top 3 GPP Plays
O’Dell Beckham – Not many receivers are capable of winning the week like a little OBJ (ODB if you prefer). This week, he finds himself as a road dog, in a low total game, where he only has an implied total of 17.5ish himself. These are strong indicators for a WR having a big game, if in nothing else…..garbage time. We’ve seen the NYG focus on both him and Saquon Barkley, but this game is leaning more on the passing work. People looking at DVOA will see the 4th ranked defense vs the WR1, but ODB moves around the formations a little bit in order to gain matchup advantages. With the 30th ranked DVOA vs the WR2, OBJ could find himself in a lot of favorable spots…..ready to break off a couple big ones. Long shot play, but one of the league’s best receivers in such a perceived “bad spot” should lead to lower ownership on an undeniable slate breaker.
CHI DST – I’m afraid this matchup vs ARI is catching too much fire to be truly low owned. However, with home defenses like MIN, JAX, and BAL also in great spots, I’m hoping this one winds up a little under the radar. People around the industry seem to think home field matters for defensive big games. What matters is a crappy QB being forced to drop back and throw. Kahlil Mack obviously is going to garner some of the ownership by his cache, but Sam Bradford has looked awful so far with his 28th ranked yards per pass attempt ranking through 2 games. Add in his league-worst Total QBR efficiency rating, and we have grounds for a gpp winning defense…..almost regardless of ownership.
Tannehill/Stills stack – By looking at our Milly Maker Breakdown article, we find the QB/WR1 is in fact the most common gpp-winning stack. In a week where we are likely to be paying up in a lot so spots, on both sites, we can find some value matching up Ryan Tannehill and Kenny Stills. It won’t be chalky, but it will be cheap. And, this stack also carries 2 TD upside for both. OAK is traveling east for an early game, and ranks in the bottom 5 of every major DVOA category, including 27th against the opposing WR1 and 29th to the QB. Sneaky, cheap, and ripe for the picking.
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But, We’re Not Done!
I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask The Geek, Donuts, Keg, Puggle, DFSUpNorth, ThunderDan, BigMarley, ScottiB, and our other staff members for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our Slack chat forum is where the magic happens, and it’s where these coaches live!!
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