Chris’s Afternoon Delight: Draftkings and Fanduel
NFL Afternoon Slate Guide 9/09/18
Hey, my name is Chris and I will be bringing you your “afternoon delight.” This article will be focusing on the afternoon slates each week during the NFL season. The purpose of this article will be to put you on a successful path for this slate. I will break down each game, as well as giving you my favorite plays from those games. Each week this slate will have 2 to 4 games. This means ownerships will be heavily concentrated on select players, which is both good and bad to a certain extent. Most of the time in these slates you will need at least two of those chalk players in order to stay with the competition. They key to winning this slate will be to differentiate yourself in other spots in order to get yourself to the top of those large field gpps.
Chiefs vs Chargers
This game alone will have most of the highest owned players in it (the chalk). This game features the highest over/under on the slate by a good margin. Currently, the Chargers are a 3.5 point favorite over the Chiefs. Starting out with the Chiefs offense, we can expect that Mahomes, Hunt, Hill and Kelce will get the bulk of the attention on this offense. From an ownership standpoint, that leaves Sammy Watkins as a good gpp play. Since he didn’t do anything in the preseason and with several other chalky players in this game and a few in other games on this slate, this is going to be the best time to play him in a gpp. We want to play him before he starts being a contributor in this offense. Let’s go back to the chalk here, Travis Kelce is the player on the Chiefs that I will be severely underweight on compared to the field (projected ownership of 7% in our Domination Station, but that is for the main slate. On this slate, he figures to be even higher). Not only due to price, but the Chargers have defended Kelce well in the past. Plus Alex Smith is no longer with the team and he loves to target his tight end.
I like Mahomes, but I don’t love him. His connection with Hill is strong and I’m hoping this year Hill becomes more than a boom or bust play. Vegas expects the Chargers to be winning this game so Mahomes should be throwing the ball a lot. Kareem Hunt torched the Chargers both games last year and is my favorite play on this offense. He is a dynamic runner that is also involved in the passing game. He is one of those guys who can take it to the house on any given play. Other fringe players are definitely playable on small slates like this and if you were mass entering lineups I would definitely take a shot at players like Ware, Conley and Robinson.
Chiefs top plays: Hunt, Hill, Mahomes, Watkins and Kelce
The Chargers will be the chalkier of these 2 teams. Everyone watched the Chiefs defense get shredded by the Bears 2nd string offense in the preseason. With Marcus Peters gone and with Eric Berry’s injury concern, it is looking worse for this defense. Rivers, Gordon and Allen will be highly owned, but rightfully so. All three of these players should have good games and I am willing to bet that at least one these players will be in the gpp winning lineup. My favorite out of the three is Gordon, just like Hunt he has the opportunity to score on both running and passing plays.
I am not a fan of using Gates this week, however his ownership should be low with Kelce, Olsen and Reed on this slate. I most likely won’t play him much at all this season, but on a short slate at his salary it is worth a shot. He has chemistry with Rivers and I see him being used mostly inside the 10 yard line or on short yardage passing plays. The best pure gpp play is Travis Benjamin. He is a boom or bust play, meaning he will either get 2 catches for 20 yards or he will get 4 catches for 100 yards and a td. There is no in between. To add even more risk he is now the 4th wide receiver on the depth chart, so the chances of a breakout game are very slim, but perfect for gpps. Tyrell Williams and rookie Mike Williams are other options to be considered, but I would only play them if I was maxing out a contest with 150 lineups.
Chargers top plays: Gordon, Allen, Rivers and Gates
Seahawks vs Broncos
At first look I did not want any part of the Seahawks offense. Baldwin has a banged up knee and Denver has one of the best defenses in the NFL and to make matters worse this game is in Denver (Editor’s note – Game logs show visiting teams really struggle in weeks 1 and 2 when coming into Mile High, adding to the Seahawks troubles this week). Then I thought, no one is going to want to play any Seattle players on this slate so it makes perfect sense to fire them up in gpps. You do not need to go crazy and play 3 or 4 Seattle players, but 1-2 should be enough to separate you from the field. Russel Wilson and Doug Baldwin are the first obvious choices here. While I do have interest in Wilson because of his rushing upside, I am not too high on Baldwin.
I do have interest in Lockett as another boom or bust play. He is cheap and it will allow you to pay up in other areas to fit more studs in your lineup. I do not want to touch Penny or Carson on this slate because we have so many other great running back options that neither of them are worth playing. My favorite play from this team and possibly the entire slate is Nick Vannett. Who? Now that you are back from looking this guy up on your computer or smartphone, this is the best gpp play on the slate. The Broncos have a great defense, but the weakest area of their defense is defending tight ends. The Seahawks will be trailing in this game and it most likely will be early in this game. With Jimmy Graham now on the Packers and the Broncos defense locking down the wide receivers Vannett will look to seize his opportunity and should be involved in this offense. The Seahawks will be throwing a lot in this game and it will not be hard for Vannett to easily crush his value and get to 5x or better on this game. Vannett already hooked up with Wilson in the preseason for a td and if he finds his way into the end zone in this game he will exceed 5x his salary.
Seahawks top plays: Wilson, Vannett, Baldwin and Lockett
The Broncos are favored to win this game, and there a few plays that I like from this team. To start off, this is not the scary Seattle defense that they have been for the past several years. Case Keenum comes in at an extreme value that will allow you to get in another stud. However, I do not think it is necessary to play Keenum it is an option on this slate. Emmanuel Sanders is my favorite play from the Broncos. From what we have seen it looks like Keenum loves to target Sanders and this could be the perfect opportunity to get Sanders at a lower ownership because he had a bad season last year. Sanders is good in both cash and gpp formats and will be a staple in a lot of my lineups. Royce Freeman will be the main back in Denver this season. Currently his role is playing the early down snaps while Booker would get all of the passing down work because he is a better pass protector than Freeman. By the end of the season I can see Freeman being a 3 down back, but right now he will most likely only be in on first and second down. With that, Freeman is still a good option because Freeman should be killing the clock late in the game. The savings you get by playing Freeman will open up a lot of possibilities for your lineups. I am not interested in Thomas in this game, but he is definitely in play. Other plays from this game would include Booker and Sutton.
Broncos Top Plays: Sanders, Keenum, and Freeman
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Cowboys vs Panthers
There are not too many plays in this game that I am interested in. On the Cowboys side of the ball the only players I am interested in are Elliot, Hurns, and Beasley. This game should play pretty slow; however, I can see the Cowboys getting down early and being forced to throw the ball more. Elliot should be more involved in the passing game. I prefer to look elsewhere at running back on Draftkings, but on FD he is a better option because the salaries are closer together to the other running backs. With Dez gone, newly acquired Allen Hurns becomes the starting wide receiver. Being in the same price range as Sanders will help his ownership stay lower. Beasley is an interesting option as he will be playing out of the slot. He is one of the cheapest options on the slate and should have a solid floor of 4-7 catches in this game. Other options on the Cowboys include Gallup and Terrance Williams. I am not interested in playing Prescott as he does not offer any value on Fanduel and even though he is cheaper on Draftkings he does not have the upside or the floor for me to consider him.
Cowboys Top Plays: Elliot…… Hurns and Beasley
The Panthers also do not have too many players that I am interested in. Run CMC comes in at great value with his expected role in this offense. McCaffrey is one of the top plays on this slate and on the main slate. If he can get the volume that is expected, I would expect him to have a very high floor and his ceiling is as high as most of the top backs in the NFL. Cam Newton comes next as a great pivot off of the other top quarter backs on this slate. His rushing upside makes him a great gpp play. Newton has an easier path to success than Wilson does because of the differences of opposing defenses. The only aspect that is making me hesitate playing a lot of Cam is that this game is going to play slow while both teams look to play heavy ball control to keep the other offense off the field. Funchess is my last target from the Panthers. He should see a decent amount of targets and is a great red zone threat. The only other play for me on the Panthers would be Olsen, but with Reed coming up in the next game and Vannett being a great value, I won’t be on him too much.
Panthers Top Plays: McCaffrey, Newton, Funchess and Olsen
Redskins vs Cardinals
On the Redskins offense there are not too many players that I am willing to play. Jordan Reed is the best option on this offense. A healthy Jordan Reed is something we do not get too often and we should play him while we can. Alex Smith loves his tight ends and Reed should see plenty of targets. The Honey Badger who is now on the Texans was the main reason why the Cardinals were good at stopping or limiting opposing teams’ tight ends. Reed is a cheaper version of Gronkowski and I would not be surprised if Reed has a really good game. I have no interest in any of the running backs on the Redskins and if that ends up costing me a gpp win, I am okay with that because we cannot play everyone. The other top option on the Redskins will be Jamison Crowder. Playing the slot he should avoid most if not all of Patrick Peterson coverage. This is the kind of gpp play that could make a huge difference on Sunday. Other options include Paul Richardson and Alex Smith
Redskins Top Plays: Reed and Crowder
The Cardinals also do not have many players that I am interested in. The top play by leaps and bounds is David Johnson. He is one of the best plays on the main slate and is on this slate as well. DJ is coming off a wrist injury, not any kind of leg injury. Do not be afraid to jam him into your lineups. DJ could have returned near the end of the season, but there was no reason for him to come back. Bradford is a dink and dunk quarterback and Johnson should be heavily involved in this offense. Larry Fitzgerald is another option as Bradford won’t be throwing much further than 10 yards on most passing plays and that is where Fitzgerald will be running most of his routes. Our last main target here is Seals-Jones. With Bradford likely keeping most passing to 10 yards or less Seals-Jones could see a good amount of targets in this game and is another value option at tight end on this slate.
Cardinals Top Plays: DJ, Fitzgerald and Seals-Jones
Signing Off
That game finished up our afternoon delight. My favorite defensive plays are the Broncos, Panthers and Chargers. All three of those teams are favored to win and should score well. Whether you are preparing dinner on the east coast or wrapping up lunch in the west coast. Hopefully your main slate lineups are currently crushing and if you played the early slate it would be great to see you guys at the top of those leaderboards. Feel free to hit me up in slack for any questions. I am almost always available to talk to. Football is my passion and I am always willing to help as much as possible. Cash games are fairly easy in these mini slates. Don’t try to get too cute with lineups and you will be just fine. In gpp you will need to have a couple low owned plays to vault you to the top of the leaderboards.
