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Boston at Philadelphia (204.5)(-6.5)
Boston surprised a lot of people last game out with a straight up win at +9 in game 3. Boston is the real deal. It will be extremely hard for them to close the series out tonight in Philadelphia. I expect this game to be close. I have no fear of anyone resting or losing minutes.
Toronto at Cleveland (213.5)(-5.5)
I am absolutely disappointed in Toronto. Coach Casey looks clueless. So clueless he benches his star player for the whole 4th quarter. He is just grasping at straws. This will be a good game and I do hope Toronto wins but it doesn’t look like that is in the cards for them.
Point Guards
- Kyle Lowry
- Terry Rozier
- George Hill
- VanVleet
Kyle Lowry leads the list here tonight for PGs. I will be doing most of my lineups using him as the lead for exposure. So I will have Lowry/Rozier then Lowry/Hill and so on and so forth. I think Rozier is a little too expensive today on FD. I still will have my exposure to him but I prefer Lowry. I am really focusing on what plays can give me 5x today. Value = Points/(price/$1000). Just in case some of you didn’t know the formula for calculating the value. So Lowry on FD is 8300. If you are good at math, you want Lowry to essentially hit 41.5. Ok – So this is going to be my metric today. I want everyone I play to be able to hit value. Essentially, this is step 1 on how I start with my roster construction. Can player X hit value? Looking at today there are some crazy prices. I want to attack today’s slate by making sure I put out the best lineup in terms of value. Some punt plays I have interest in are Larkin/Wright/McConnell. I might throw 1 lineup with 1 of them each in combined with Lowry.
Shooting Guards
- Jaylen Brown
- DeMar DeRozan
- JJ Redick
- Kyle Korver
- Marco Belinelli
- Marcus Smart
Jaylen Brown has an amazingly affordable price. His minutes will keep trending up. He should be close to 30+ minutes today barring anything happening to him. We have to go back to the DeMar well. He won’t get benched again in the 4th unless the coach wants to lose his job. Redick’s veteran leadership will shine tonight. I like Korver a bit more than Belinelli. Both are great plays though for their price. I absolutely loved Marcus Smart once he came back initially and was priced at 5k. I just do not like his price point. His game is blocks/steals and he needs to get his shot to fall to really get to 30+. He got “hot” from the field game 2 and hit 35.5. Great score yes, but barely over value. With today’s mindset – we want to put out the best roster possible to hit value. I will have exposure to him via MME but not as much as the others listed.
Small Forwards
- Lebron James (DK only)
- Jayson Tatum
- OG Anunoby
- CJ Miles
- Robert Covington
There will be a different way to attack things via sites today. On Draftkings – Lebron/Embiid and run DS. For Fanduel – I’ll have around 20% of him which will be underweight versus the field. You shouldn’t ever completely fade him at this juncture in the playoffs. 14.5k though is just ridiculous. Yes – On Fanduel that is 72.5 needed. Can he get there? Absolutely. That’s why I will have 20% of him just in case. Tatum is my true #1 at SF. I’ll have around 80% of him. I’ll be pairing him up with the following 3 guys. I know the phrase – “let’s go back to the well.” With RoCo though – That well is dried up. The 40 he put up against Boston was a fluke. History suggests that 10-20 is normal for him. If he beats me, so be it. I’ll have around 10% of him. Very low exposure.
Power Forwards
- Kevin Love
- Serge Ibaka
- Ben Simmons
- Marcus Morris
- Jeff Green
- Ersan Ilyasova
Kevin Love is repaying us for all the pain he has put us through! I am going to have a lot of Love in my lineups. Serge didn’t receive much of a price bump – I’ll go right back to the well here. I don’t care if he starts or not. Seems like he did better off the bench. I hate Simmons at his price but will have some exposure to him. It’s certainly in the realm of possibility he hits 50 tonight but I highly doubt it. Morris/Green/Ilyasova all have favorable prices tonight. They don’t have tremendous upside but can easily hit 5x for you. I plan on having Love as my focal point at PF and mixing in the rest with him.
Centers
- Joel Embiid
- Al Horford
- Jonas Valanciunas
- Aron Baynes
I’ll have a lot of Embiid tonight. I’ve loved him this whole series and will keep playing him. I give the slight edge to Horford over Jval. If you are looking for value – Look no further. Aron Baynes is your guy. The nice thing about DK is you can run Embiid and Baynes.
Good Luck Gentleman! My work schedule has changed dramatically this week so I won’t be around today pre-lock to answer any questions. Have No Fear – The Bear will be Here!
