There is some injury news to look at today. Marcus Smart will play. Josh Richardson says there is a 60% chance he will play. John Henson is out. We do have some value tonight(Thon Maker). I will have most of my exposure in the first two games. Let’s just dive right into it.
Point Guards:
Eric Bledsoe (7500/6300): Point guard tonight is U-G-L-Y. Eric Bledsoe has not been playing well all series. Everything is down for him. His FG%, his shot attempts, and he is getting less steals. So let’s look at this from a GPP angle. In Theory, he should regress to the mean sooner or later, right? His ownership will be down even on a slate with a really bad selection for PGs. Marcus Smart is back and he will be locking down Khris Middleton. This will open up some more opportunities for Bledsoe to step up. He has been sitting back and letting Jabari/Middleton/Giannis take over. Khris Middleton is shooting a blistering 61.5% from the field in 4 games so far. Boston needs to focus on him or they’ll be going home. Bledsoe has no choice but to step up tonight and I do not mind taking him at a lower ownership with his 50 point upside.
Goran Dragic (6300/6100): Dragic will be your chalk at PG tonight. It’s not a bad play but it isn’t a great play. There just really isn’t any other options here that have any safety. You at least know what you will get with Dragic. He is normally good for 25-35. Unless he jams his pinky like Teague and does nothing for the rest of the game because of it. Bottom line is – you should just play Dragic.
Dejounte Murray (5000/4800): We finally saw him shoot the ball from 3 last game. He made a bunch. He had 24 fantasy points at the half and ended with 24 fantasy points. I’m not a huge fan of Murray here but the theme here is PGs are awful so you have to go somewhere. I don’t have any stats to sell you on him being a good play. The good thing we saw was he decided to shoot the ball more so his upside went up to where he won’t drop a 5-10 and ruin your lineup.
Patty Mills (4600/4700): Mills is going to keep chucking it. His shots are up from the regular season. A lot of people are going to go Dragic/Mills and move on from PG and there is nothing wrong with that. You can expect around 15-25 with the possibility of hitting 30 if he gets hot. Nothing wrong with that, at all.
Shaun Livingston (4000/3300): This is your value play at PG. The one thing I hate about Livingston is his upside…It’s capped. He will give you 20 minutes no matter what happens in the game. He doesn’t get extra run during blowouts. He will give you 15-25. If you are ok with getting that for his price then sign yourself up. He will have some ownership but not as much as the above – mentioned.
Honorable Mentions: Terry Rozier – His price is way too high with Marcus Smart being back. This play is specifically an ownership leverage play. Rozier has 50 point upside even with Marcus Smart back. It just lessens his chance he will get there. I’ll have some small exposure to him for the ownership leverage but that is the only reason.
Shooting Guards:
Khris Middleton (8500/8100): He has been shooting 61 percent from the field. EN FUEGO. He will have Marcus Smart on him so I am lowering my exposure to Middleton tonight. I will be underweight with the field as most people will still go here without understanding the effect Smart will have.
Jaylen Brown (7300 on both): There it is – Jaylen Brown finally got a significant price bump. I don’t mind him here still even at this price point. He is their primary scorer and we saw he can go for 50. He just isn’t free anymore like before. He is still worth it though.
Dwayne Wade (5500/5800): Miami won’t lay down tonight. They will compete. Wade will be chalky and rightfully so. If the game stays close he produces like a 7k player. Wade has crushed when the games stay close. You want to have exposure to Wade tonight.
Marco Belinelli (5700/5300): Picking between Belinelli and Redick is truly a coin flip. They have been switching off who performs and it’s Marco’s Turn. When you see a coin flip situation – I prefer to take the guy who is going to be lesser owned. Beli will be lesser owned than Redick tonight. IE: If you group 100 people together. 95 people call heads and 4 people call tails. You have a choice to call heads or tails. What would you do? I am going to call tails and if it hits tails now 95 people are eliminated and I only have the remaining 4 to compete with.
Marcus Smart (5000/4400): Smart will see close to 30 minutes tonight and be glued onto Middleton. He most likely won’t start but that doesn’t bother me. I love Marcus Smart here as he can score Fantasy points in a number of ways. He isn’t scoring reliant. People may be nervous to play him tonight and that makes me love him even more. His price will go up immediately after tonight. Play Smart.
Malcolm Brogdon (4200/4400): 30 minutes at 4k? Yes, please. He is an excellent value play tonight. Could he burn you? Sure and he has before. However, 30 minutes at 4k is something you have to consider. He has every opportunity to hit 30 if he adds steals and hits his open 3s.
Honorable Mentions: Wayne Ellington – Low ownership play that can get hot at any moment. Will see more minutes if Richardson sits.
Power Forwards:
Giannis Antetokounmpo(11300/9900): The emergence of Jabari Parker has hurt Giannis. However, in Boston, Giannis has had games of 55/66. The Bucks will need a lot more Giannis tonight to win. I like him over KD because I know I will be getting Giannis for the whole game. This game will be competitive.
Kevin Durant (10900/10300): If I thought this game would be competitive I would be playing KD over Giannis. However, I don’t think it will be. If you think it will… then fire up KD. The Spurs have been a really bad road team this year. This game will slip away from the Spurs towards the end, and KD won’t be needed.
Justice Winslow(4500/5000): I actually wish Jrich didn’t have any issues because this is going to raise the ownership of Winslow. I like Winslow no matter what and he is my top play at SF for value.
Kyle Anderson (3700 on both): This play is a reach but you can get Slo-Mo at low ownership. He has been seeing more court time the last 2 games and producing a bit more. If he gets his hands on some steals and blocks, he will get to 25 easy.
Honorable Mentions: I do not mind Covington on DK for 5100 but hate his price on FD. Gay and Tatum’s prices are a little too high but if I had to choose I’d go with Tatum. ALERT: Keep an eye on Jrich news. There is a chance you can get him for extremely low ownership tonight. You saw his upside last time out. Scared Money Don’t Make Money (SMDMM). He might be a true GTD so we might not know pre-lock.
Power Forwards:
Ben Simmons (10500/10100): If you like a 10k player consistently giving you 45-55 then look no further. I see him staying on the court even in a blowout. His first playoff win. If anything they’d take him out with a few seconds left to give him a standing ovation at home. Just play Simmons. Don’t overthink it.
Draymond Green (8200/7900): His price is ping-ponging back and forth. He is the only player from this game I have a true interest in. He doesn’t need to score to get to 40. We like that. As long as he doesn’t get into foul issues he will get you 35+.
James Johnson (6100/6600): He has shown tremendous consistency in this series and has 50 point upside. His price is extremely affordable and you should be overweight to the field here.
Jabari Parker (5200/6200): Love him on Fanduel. He is a little pricey on DK. He is playing extremely well and being rewarded with minutes.
These 4 Power Forwards really should be the only ones you consider tonight.
Centers:
Joel Embiid (9500/8900): He put quite a scare into people in the first half but managed to get to 40. He had a terrible game. 8 turnovers for a center is pretty insane. He is your best option at center. He has 50-60 point upside with a great floor. If you are struggling with centers and don’t want to take the risk – Just play Embiid.
Al Horford (8000/6900): Priced too high on FD. I think he is too high on DK too. I’ll have very little Horford tonight.
Hassan Whiteside (5400/5500): You are damn right I am interested here. He played 26 minutes finally. As long as he stays out of foul trouble he has 50 point upside. I’ll go back to the well here – he owes me money. Gortat repaid me. Now, Whiteside will.
Thon Maker (3500/4200): He will be chalky. It makes me a bit nervous. A majority of his points came from blocks. He is a great off the ball defender but the main reason Thon never saw minutes is that he is god awful at defending 1on1. It’s basically free points if you post him up. My only worry here is that Brad Stevens does that this game and this might lower Thon’s Minutes. However, his price is just too damn cheap. I like his floor tonight to at least give you 15. It’s hard to pass that floor up at min price on Fanduel and 4k on DK.
Aron Baynes (4400/3900): There is absolutely nothing wrong with doing an ownership pivot from Maker to Baynes. Maker will have a majority of the ownership. Baynes does have the ability to outscore him.
