We are winding down the NBA DFS season and if you’re still playing cash (other than H2H) then you’re really behind the 8-ball. The switch to MME and utilizing the DS optimizer should be everyone’s priority. For this reason, I am going to make the NBA content this week strictly MME based. I will focus on game theory, opportunity cost, and remember – our goal is to WIN a tournament and not just to place in it. If we are happy with doubling or tripling our tournament money then we should just be playing double/triple ups that have the same ROI and an easier cash line. Let’s go for first or last!
Let’s talk value and opportunity!
Richaun Holmes should get another 25-30 minutes on the court to match the size of Andre Drummond. He might reach the higher end of that projection if he’s able to stay out of foul trouble. He’s just 4.2k on FanDuel and is a nice value option at a position that doesn’t look too appealing tonight.
Mike Muscala could get a hefty dose of minutes tonight as well with Dewayne Dedmon possibly missing the game. Last game, Muscala played 32 minutes and had a 16.0% usage rate while scoring 26.40 fantasy points. He’s a solid option and likely a bit safer than Holmes, however, he doesn’t have the ceiling that Holmes has.
Kyle Kuzma will continue to get heavy run with all the injuries to the Lakers and last night had a 33.9% usage rate. Yes, he’s against the vaunted Spurs defense and uber slow pace, but with playing time in the 40 minute range in 4 of the last 7 games and never less than 34-minutes he offers a solid floor and ceiling combination.
Robert Covington continues to prove he’s a much better player with Embiid off the court. His usage rate has been 29.2% and 20.0% in the last two games. He scored 42.20 fantasy points last game with Embiid OUT and is in a fine spot tonight.
Dillon Brooks should play around 30-minutes and took 26 shots last game. If they’re missing half their team again and if MarShon Brooks is also out, then Dillon is a solid upside GPP option as the Grizz continue to give their youngin’s a look.
Reggie Bullock is at the same price point as Dillon Brooks and likely will have a little bit higher ownership than the same priced player. That said, Bullock offers a much higher floor without the ceiling. If you are playing cash this is the type of player I would prefer, if doing GPP/MME then I absolutely roll with Dillon Brooks and even Stanley Johnson over Reggie Bullock.
JJ Redick, Marco Belinelli, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jaylen Brown are all decent cash plays tonight. For GPPs, I would reverse this order for my liking. Jaylen leads the group in both categories especially if both Larkin and Rozier are out again.
Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson was a stack I said to play at point guard last night and they combined for a million points. Well, maybe not that many, but they both crushed value and started you off with a very unique build. I am going back to the well with these two at PG.
Yogi Ferrel and Maxi Kleber should both get healthy run tonight as half the team is out and/or resting. No Dirk, Powell, Barnes or DSJ.
Let’s talk MME strategy!
The only two players priced over 10k are Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis. I will throw 20% on both of them for the minimum setting but put the maximum exposure to 25%. My plan is to go pretty heavy on the fair and balanced lineup approach tonight. I love the second tier of “studs” tonight and prefer to build heavily in that tier.
I am going to have around 50% exposure to Ben Simmons AND LaMarcus Aldridge. I plan on stacking the two of them at PF on FanDuel for 50% of those lineups.
I.E. If I made 100-lineups, I would want 25 of them to have Simmons/LMA together and then 25 individual lineups with Simmons and then 25-lineups with LMA.
Nikola Vucevic, Jrue Holiday, Aaron Gordon, Kyle Lowry (love going back to the well) will all garner 15/25 min/max exposure setting.
I’ll throw a minimum 5-8% on all of the value guys listed above and just let the optimizer rip. Yogi Ferrel and Maxi Kleber likely will get 15% exposure and Yogi might go as high as 30-40% for me by the end of the day.
Make sure you are paying attention to #donuts-nba-nfl-mlb channel tonight so that you don’t miss out on last minute all-in calls like I made with Sean Kilpatrick (30+ points last night!)
Best of luck!
<3 Donuts
This is my most recent strategy article, “How to Make a Lineup in 15-Minutes”. If you are living the #DadLife or just uber busy, this article is perfect for people who want to produce a money-making lineup in limited time while using our tools and content in the most efficient way possible.
https://wp.dfsarmy.com/2018/03/how-to-create-multiple-dfs-lineups-in-just-15-minutes.html/ref/22
Here are a couple links to other strategy articles I have written if you are interested in more of my own personal process or strategies:
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