So here we are entering another 4 game slate. This slate isn’t as bad as Monday’s disaster of the slate, but it is not good by any stretch of the imagination so I would regulate yourself to max multi-entry into whatever you can afford. (37.50 into Quarter arcade). My personal entries will be in GPPs and Single Entries. With GPP’s you can get a little cute and try to target some of the value – Such as a Nick Young or a Jordan Bell. If you play 100 dollar single entry GPPs or more, try not to get too cute. We have 3 games with low paces, so keep in mind 5x value is going to be hard to come by on this slate, like how Monday was. So temper expectations, scores will be a bit low. I personally plan on spreading my lineup out a bit via the games, with a majority coming from the GS game. I will list my play of the day, and in this article, I’m going to cover Giannis and Kevin Durant before getting into my breakdown.
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PLAY OF THE DAY: MARIO HEZONJA
Kevin Durant: I am not getting cute here. Every lineup I start with is going to just click Kevin Durant right away. He is obvious chalk tonight. You don’t fade good chalk, you fade bad chalk(Tyler Dorsey). This is good chalk. He is under-priced facing a tired, undermanned Laker team. I think the game does stay close and has the fastest pace on the board. If you run anything under 5 lineups, you have no reason to fade him at his price. He is under-priced for how many GS guys are going to be sitting. Once again, Play KD!!!
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Giannis is my favorite player and I love rostering him any damn chance I get. However, this slate doesn’t call for it. You already have to roster KD, and if you stuff both of them in you are going to end up with a lot of risky value that can sink your line-up. Giannis also is consistently over-priced. More often than not, he will go under-value. You want to give yourself the best odds of winning, and fading Giannis in this scenario will do that. The Bucks have had all their pieces come back, and are all in full swing. This is eating into his production very slowly and that is why we are seeing him not hit the price tag he continually gets. He will hit or exceed value once every 5 games to keep his price high, and we just can’t bank on that. His history vs Orlando is not great either. Also, Brandon Jennings is in the fold. If you don’t know too much about Brandon Jennings – Think Derrick Rose. He is a ball-hog who dribbles around and tries to break the defense down. He is a terrible off the ball player, and when he and Giannis shared the court the other day it wasn’t good for Giannis. We want Giannis with the ball as much as possible playing point guard – Think LBJ. LBJ currently averages the most drives to the rim in the NBA at a little over 10 a game. Every time he drives that creates an opportunity for a dish out (assist), Lay-up/dunk, or a chance to get to the line. With Brandon Jennings, and Bledsoe commanding a lot of the ball now, this is taking away some of those opportunities for Giannis to drive. We already were scraping for points with The Alphabet, and now we are going to be scraping even harder. The right move here is to fade him and put your money into better options.
Milwaukee at Orlando(207.5)(+8.5)
This game is a game you do want exposure to as it has the second-fastest pace on the board. The main piece I want from Milwaukee will be Khris Middleton. Have you looked at the SGs tonight? You have an under-performing Bradley Beal and a bunch of trash. Middleton has had success vs Orlando, and the addition of Jennings actually has a positive correlation for Middleton. BJ3 will be breaking the defense down, and guess who can sneak open for a 3? You guessed it, Khris Middleton. If not a 3, the defense will be broken down enough where he can get to his spot and knock down his mid-range. I’ve mentioned Jennings a lot…He isn’t on the slate(fd)…He is an interesting pivot on DK off the chalk. He’s going to get minutes again tonight which eats into Bledsoe. I don’t think you need to go to Bledsoe tonight especially at his price point with fewer minutes. For Orlando, my favorite play is Mario Hezonja. He is my play of the day and has had success vs the Bucks. His play-style translates extremely well vs the Milwaukee Bucks. He is a good spot-up shooter which the Bucks tend to struggle with. If he adds blocks or steals he can crush value. He will also see a lot of Tony Snell which is the Bucks worst defender. If Gordon plays, I don’t want him at all. He will see Giannis for a majority of this game. Augustin is a great value play here tonight at PG, and I love pairing him up with Vucevic. You can play them separately as well. Vuc is the best center tonight by far. The Bucks have been doing better versus centers as of late due to Thon Maker not playing, but on this slate where there are no other options, he is hard to pass up. Shelvin Mack had a good game against the bucks just recently, but I won’t be chasing that. He benefited from Augustin playing bad, and he got hot.
MIDDLETON: Great aDvP matchup and Good History vs Magic
HEZONJA: Will see Bucks worst defender and his game translates well.
Vucevic: No other options. Not a great history against the Bucks and I like him less if Gordon is back. Once again though, there aren’t many options here at center.
Washington at Boston (204.5)(+2.5)
Boston sure has gotten ugly. This game will be extremely slow and Washington is on a back2back. For Washington, I am finding myself gravitating towards Satorasnky. He will see a lot Shane Larkin. Larkin is 5 feet 11, while Tomas is 6 foot 7. Tomas will be able to do whatever he wants. I hate Bradley Beal’s price point and would not roster him if this was a ten game slate with more options. However, he has had success vs a Boston team that was healthy, and now he’s going to see a lot of Terry Rozier. If you can fit him in your lineups without destroying your roster, do it. I don’t like the Morris brothers here, as they haven’t shown to have success against one another. I’m not buying into a fake narrative because they are brothers. Marcin Gortat is your dumpster dive here. He should see 20-25 minutes with Mahinmi running out there for 28 yesterday. I won’t be playing Rozier at his price point. He is priced to his ceiling, and he could very well go way under it. Tatum and Porter are good low-owned options as everyone will either be paying way up at SF or way down. I don’t like either of them though. Shane Larkin is on a strict minutes restriction of 24. I don’t really want to go there. ** Update: Horford Out. I prefer Monroe over Baynes. They both will see the same minutes and Monroe will see more usage.
Satoransky: He should be able to do whatever he wants.
Beal: Has had several bad games in a row, he is due right? He has a good aDvP and good history vs Boston. If you can afford him, do it.
Monroe: Better offensive player than Baynes. Minute for Minute he is better than baynes.
Miami at Sacramento(208.5)(+7)
This game is slow! However, we still want to grab pieces here. Tyler Johnson is my top point guard on this slate and has posted two 40 point games against Sacramento. Those are ceiling games for TJ. I will be pairing him up with Bam Bam. Bam went 1 for 10 the other night and still hit 22 fantasy points. I think he will shoot better tonight and I love his price and guaranteed 20+ minutes. Dragic’s priced to his ceiling so I don’t want any part of him, even though it is a good aDvP matchup. The pace of the game does not benefit him. Between KellyO and James Johnson, typically we want KellyO in slower paced games and James Johnson in faster games. This means roster Kelly over Johnson if you can afford it. I still don’t mind Johnson for his price, but I would try to get Kelly. Wayne Ellington is your punt play at SG for Miami. He will see 25+ minutes. All he does is shoot threes though so if he misses, he won’t get you many points. For the kings, I don’t have interest in fox. He is priced to his ceiling in a slow-paced game. For the shooting guards on the kings, I really don’t want either of them. If I do deploy Bog or Hield, it’ll be “he was the last spot left and I had that much salary left” type of thing. I don’t like guessing which one of these yahoos are going to get hot. They both have the same upside, with the same floor. Bog’s minutes are just a bit more consistent. WCS is actually my favorite center on the slate tonight, and it is his third game back. I feel safest rostering him over anyone.
TYLER JOHNSON: Two Chicken Sandwiches (40 points) and 2nd best aDvP on the slate.
Lakers at Warriors(225.5)(-7.5)
The fastest game on the slate by a significant margin. I want Lonzo Ball facing off against Quinn Cook. I want KCP. I want Julius Randle. This Laker team is thin as it has ever been right now and these guys are getting all the minutes they can handle. I am going to be pairing up 2, possibly all 3 of these guys tonight against Kevin Durant. Kuzma hurt his ankle last night, and I doubt he plays. The one punt play that I will be looking at is Derrick Williams. He will be low-owned and might see up to 25 minutes if Kuzma does in fact sit. Our resident Laker fan, MrBearHere, can update us with more information. Go find him in his channel. For GS – KD. Pair him up with Nick Young if Klay does sit. I am only rostering Young though if Klay sits. I don’t want Cook or Livingston. Omri Casspi and Andre Iguodola are going to both see 20-25 minutes tonight, and Casspi is much cheaper than Andre. I prefer Casspi over Andre. Jordan Bell and Kevon Looney will most likely see only 10-15 minutes each and that is just not enough for me. I prefer ZaZa over Javale tonight as ZaZa can score on his own where JaVale needs Curry to help him create.
RANDLE/LONZO/KCP: In this order – I will be trying to get all of them.
DURANT: Lock.
