Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Tonight
We have a short slate ahead of us for Thursday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Cleveland Cavaliers (113), Philadelphia 76ers (111), and the Portland Trailblazers (111), The highest priced players on the slate are Lebron James, Joel Embiid, and Karl-Anthony Towns
- Justise Winslow SF/PF MIA ($3,900)
- Justise Winslow and the Miami Heat will take on the Los Angeles Lakers at home tonight. The Heat have an implied total sitting at right around 110-points and they are currently 4.5-point favorites. The Heat have been playing at a pace of right around 98.5 and the Lakers have been playing at a pace of right around 105.2. This is one of the slowest teams in the league playing the fastest team in the league. The Heat get a nice fantasy boost tonight. Winslow is likely going to be guarded by Brandon Ingram who is an average to below average defender tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 23.1 MPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.1 APG, .5 BLKPG, .7 STLPG, 6.3 PPG, 18.0 FPPG, and a .77 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 18.53 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.75x value. He is projected to play right around 21 minutes tonight. I am a little bit higher on Winslow than the Domination Station tonight. I like the up-tempo game for the and Winslow gets a lot of ancillary stats. Load him up as a value forward tonight on Draftkings.
- Damian Lillard PG POR ($9,400)
- Damian Lillard and the Portland Trailblazers will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves at home tonight. The Trailblazers have an implied total sitting at right around 111-points and they are currently 5.0-point favorites. The Blazers have been playing at a pace of right around 101.4 and the T’Wolves have been playing at a pace of right around 99.4. This is going to be a slight pace down game for the Blazers tonight but I still like the price and spot for Lillard tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by Jeff Teague tonight who is an average defender at best. I expect a big offensive night from Lillard tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 36.3 MPG, 4.5 RPG, 6.6 APG, .4 BLKPG, 1.0 STLPG, 26.3 PPG, 44.9 FPPG, and a 1.24 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 47.957 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.1x value. He is projected to play right around 37 minutes tonight. Lillard is going to play a ton of minutes tonight in a good matchup. Load him up as a high priced guard with upside tonight.
- Dwyane Wade PG/SG MIA ($5,000)
- Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat will take on the Los Angeles Lakers at home tonight. The Heat have an implied total sitting at right around 110-points and they are currently 4.5-point favorites. Like I stated in the Winslow write-up The Heat have been playing at a pace of right around 98.5 and the Lakers have been playing at a pace of right around 105.2. This is one of the slowest teams in the league playing the fastest team in the league. Wade is likely going to be coming off the bench tonight but he has done well in that role this season. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 23.1 MPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.4 APG, .7 BLKPG, .9 STLPG, 11.2 PPG, 23.9 FPPG, and a 1.03 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 26.543 we have a projection of right around 5.31x value. He is projected to play right around 24 minutes tonight. Wade has started to find his place a bit since he has come back to Miami. He has a pretty solid FPPM number and he is going to be in a significant pace-up game tonight. Load him up as a value guard on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a short slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Dwyane Wade tonight! Good luck Army!
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