Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our first free square of the night was D’Angelo Russell who ended up with 13 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.9x value. Our second free square of the night was Nemanja Bjelica who ended up with right around 51.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 9.9x value. Our final free square of the night was Justise Winslow who ended up with right around 27.0 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.0x value.
Tonight
We have a good slate ahead of us for Friday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Denver Nuggets (118), Los Angeles Clippers (116), and the Cleveland Cavaliers (114). The highest priced players on the slate are LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
- Mario Hezonja SF/PF ORL ($4,200)
- Mario Hezonja and the Orlando Magic will take on the Sacramento Kings on the road tonight. The Magic have an implied total sitting at right around 102-points and they are currently 3.5-point underdogs. The Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 101.6 and the Kings have been playing at a pace of right around 98.3. It’s going to be a pace down game for the Magic tonight, but Hezonja is going to see so many minutes and fantasy opportunities it won’t affect him that much tonight. Hezonja is likely going to be guarded by Justin Jackson who is just an average defender. Hezonja has the following stats on the season so far this year: 20.0 MPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.2 APG, .4 BLKPG, 1.0 STLPG, 9.1 PPG, 17.8 FPPG, and a .89 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 31.599 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 7.53x value. He is projected to play right around 35 minutes tonight. The Magic have some significant injuries which means a lot of fantasy opportunity has opened up for other guys tonight. Hezonja is one of those guys who should benefit tonight and the price is right. Load him up as a value forward with a ton of upside tonight.
- Nikola Mirotic PF NOP ($7,000)
- Nikola Mirotic and the New Orleans Pelicans will take on the Washington Wizards at home tonight. The Pelicans have an implied total sitting at right around 108-points and they are currently 3.0-point underdogs. The Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 105.1 and the Wizards have been playing at a pace of right around 100.7. Pace down game for Pelicans tonight but I still like the price and spot for Mirotic tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by Markeiff Morris who is a below average defender. This is a good matchup for Mirotic tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 27.1 MPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.5 APG, .8 BLKPG, .8 STLPG, 16.4 PPG, 31.4 FPPG, and a 1.16 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 41.921 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.99x value. He is projected to play right around 35 minutes tonight. I love Mirotic’s price, matchup and upside in this matchup tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier power forward on Draftkings tonight.
- Jonathon Simmons SG/SF ORL ($4,700)
- Jonathon Simmons and the Orlando Magic will take on the Sacramento Kings on the road tonight. The Magic have an implied total sitting at right around 102-points and they are currently 3.5-point underdogs. The Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 101.6 and the Kings have been playing at a pace of right around 98.3. Like I stated with Hezonja the Magic are depleted and Simmons is going to be a big beneficiary of the opportunities tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by Bogdan Bogdanović who is a below average defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 29.1 MPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, .3 BLKPG, .8 STLPG, 13.4 PPG, 23.0 FPPG, and a .79 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 31.121 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.62x value. He is projected to play right around 35 minutes tonight. As you can tell I am high on the Magic players tonight. They are both priced very low and I find it hard to see how they won’t exceed value tonight. Load Simmons up as a value guard or forward with upside tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a decent slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Mario Hezonja tonight! Good luck Army!
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