Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our first free square of the night was Julius Randle who ended up with right around 39.25 DKFP which was good enough for 5x value. Our second free square of the night was Trey Burke who ended up with right around 65.25 DKFP which was good enough for 13.6x value. Our final free square of the night was Kyle Kuzma who ended up with right around 36.25 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.3x value.
Tonight
We have a large slate ahead of us for Tuesday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Toronto Raptors (117), Houston Rockets (115), and the Los Angeles Clippers (114). The highest priced players on the slate are LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
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- Chris Paul PG HOU ($8,100)
- Chris Paul and the Houston Rockets will take on the Chicago Bulls at home tonight. The Rockets have an implied total sitting at right around 115-points and they are currently 13.5-point favorites. The Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 101.2 and the Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 101.9. Slight pace up game for the Rockets and a good overall game to target for DFS purposes. Paul is likely going to be guarded by Cam Payne tonight who is a below average defender. Paul has the following stats on the season so far this year: 31.6 MPG, 5.6 RPG, 7.9 APG, .3 BLKPG, 1.7 STLPG, 18.8 PPG, 42.1 FPPG, and a 1.33 FPPM. Taking a look our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 50.239 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.2x value. He is projected to play right around 30 minutes tonight. No Harden tonight which means a lot of opportunity for the rest of the Rockets tonight. Paul is going to be one of those guys to benefit tonight in a solid spot and a solid price on Draftkings tonight
- Paul Millsap PF/C DEN ($5,700)
- Paul Millsap and the Denver Nuggets will take on the Toronto Raptors on the road tonight. The Nuggets have an implied total sitting at right around 109-points and they are currently 8.5-point underdogs. The Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.7 and the Raptors have been playing at a pace of right around 101.6. This is going to be a nice pace up game for the Nuggets and Paul Millsap tonight. Millsap is likely going to be guarded by Serge Ibaka tonight who is not the greatest defender. Millsap has the following stats on the season so far this year: 28.5 MPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.1 BLKPG, 1.2 STLPG, 13.9 PPG, 30.2 FPPG, and a 1.06 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.509 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.18x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. Millsap has a solid price with a great matchup in a pace up game tonight. I think he makes a great option at $5,700 tonight on Draftkings.
- Gerald Green SG/SF HOU ($4,700)
- Gerald Green and the Houston Rockets will take on the Chicago Bulls at home tonight. The Rockets have an implied total sitting at right around 115-points and they are currently 13.5-point favorites. The Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 101.2 and the Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 101.9. As I stated in the Paul write up this is going to be a nice little pace up game for the Rockets with the added benefit of no James Harden tonight. Green is likely going to be coming off the bench but he should see enough minutes to exceed his value tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 21.4 MPG, 3.0 RPG, .5 APG, .4 BLKPG, .6 STLPG, 11.3 PPG, 18.9 FPPG, and a .88 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 25.462 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.42x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. Green has had a nice season since coming to Houston. With James Harden out tonight I expect him to exceed his value tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a large slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Chris Paul tonight! Good luck Army!
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