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Congrats to one of our own (Jeff Stange – InsaneDolfan37742) for winning $100,000 last night!
POINT GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS *
Russell Westbrook (OKC @ GS)
Stephen Curry (GS vs OKC)
The margin of victory in last five GS/OKC games – 17 (OKC win) – 16, 16, 21, 26 (rest by GS) could cause some people to re-think their stance on having exposure to this game. Don’t be one of those people, both guys are in a fantastic spot, especially Westbrook, who will certainly try to end OKC’s four-game losing streak by himself.
Isaiah Thomas (CLE @ ORL)
Elfrid Payton (ORL vs CLE)
Both guys are allergic to defense, and reasonably-priced for their current situations… both missing notable scorers out of their lineup.
* CASH *
Tyler Ulis (PHX @ LAL)
I’m fading in GPPs, but he’ll be so highly owned in cash games that you might as well have him. Devin Booker’s absence and so many other Suns’ injuries should open up 30+ minutes for Ulis.
* GPP *
Kyle Lowry (TOR vs BOS)
Lowry’s history vs BOS is fantastic, and his $7000 FD price tag is a nice compliment. I’ll keep him at GPP because of a few recent duds, but I do have optimism since the Raptors are unusually-large favorites and this matchup against Kyrie (making his return after missing three games for an injured quad) is a lot better than advertised.
Andrew Harrison (MEM @ ATL)
Still incredibly cheap taking on a Hawks teams that sucks on defense. Harrison has posted at least 28 FDP in three of the last four games.
DJ Augustin (ORL vs CLE)
Augustin may benefit from some extra minutes in any event tonight. He has posted 5x value (at current price) in four of the last six games and could get more offensive responsibility if Jonathan Simmons is inactive. Lastly, Augustin has posted at least 22 fantasy points in three of his last five back-end B2B games.
Trey Burke (NYK vs MIL)
More of a situational play but look to see if Frank Ntilikina is inactive for tonight’s game – this would give more minutes to Burke as the backup point guard, and some additional minutes at shooting guard as well.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS *
Bradley Beal (WSH @ PHI)
Lots of talk about Beal tonight, and that’s understandable. I think enough people have learned that if you get burned one night by a player, they’ll come back with something nice the next time out… kinda like they owe you something. PHI, in particular, JJ Redick, has really struggled against shooting guards this season, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him bounce back.
Klay Thompson (GS vs OKC)
Usually around that 30-point range vs OKC, but Klay will certainly draw the worst defender in most of the main situations in this game. Also, as I mentioned on the pod, you’ll typically see Klay and Dray work with the second unit, and they have a major advantage over OKC in that regard tonight. I think that’s where they can really leave their mark in this game.
* CASH *
James Harden (HOU @ BKN)
We were pretty skeptical about Harden on today’s podcast, mostly because the 215.5 total in the BKN/HOU game seems a bit low for the two teams. It seems straitjacket crazy to fade Harden against the Nets, but Vegas is telling us (with that low total) the Rockets will handle this game early on… and perhaps, Harden won’t be needed as much down the stretch. Further making the case, Harden and the Rockets play tomorrow night in Miami… they know this game is much more important, so expect them to handle their business early on tonight.
* GPP *
Jordan Clarkson / Josh Hart / Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL vs PHX)
I kinda like them all, and I really can’t decide. I think Luke Walton really can’t decide either, and that’s why they’re best left for GPP purposes.
Caris LeVert (BKN vs HOU)
On today’s pod, we talked about LeVert at a decent length… I had more love for him if Chris Paul were simply rested tonight, but the more I think about it, I like LeVert in any event. I expect the Rockets to handle this game pretty early, and that’ll give LeVert and the second unit some extra run while doing it at a rapid pace.
SMALL FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS *
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL @ NYK)
Last four games against the Knicks…
LeBron James (CLE @ ORL)
I’m not too worried about LeBron’s game two sub-40 performances vs ORL this season… one was a blowout, the other was just a shit-performance in a competitive game. The Cavs desperately need every win they can get, and there aren’t many Magic players that can actually hang with LeBron.
Paul George (OKC @ GS)
I love PG’s price and I’m not all that worried about his impending matchup with Kevin Durant… sure, it’s not the one I want to attack on a nightly basis, but I want some cheap exposure to this game. There should be an excellent pace to the game and George should make value because of that on sheer volume alone.
Mario Hezonja (ORL vs CLE)
Not thrilled about Hezonja being on the back-end of a B2B, but Jonathan Simmons might not play and that would give him a ridiculous number of minutes.
TJ Warren / Josh Jackson (PHX @ LAL)
Brandon Ingram (LAL vs PHX)
Excellent game to be involved with for all parties. Typically, not a huge fan of Warren without Devin Booker in the lineup, but this matchup makes me overlook that.
* GPP *
Kevin Durant (GS vs OKC)
Playing his old frenemies always brought out the savage in KD, but now he’s got a tough matchup with Paul George. Not worth the salary cap hit, in my opinion, but he’s certainly capable of posting great numbers in a revenge game.
Otto Porter (WSH @ PHI)
Everyone was pissed about Beal not performing well last night, but I’m also a bit miffed at Porter’s production from that one. Porter did get into early foul trouble last night, thus allowing him to only play 25 minutes, so he should be well-rested for this game.
Joe Harris (BKN vs HOU)
If the Nets are getting their asses kicked, Harris should see plenty of garbage time fourth-quarter run in a nice up-tempo setting. Harris has posted 20+ fantasy points three times in the last seven games.
POWER FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS *
Ben Simmons (PHI vs WSH)
Great numbers against the Wiz this season… Wizards are on the back-end of a B2B, so we can downgrade their defense a little bit.
JaMychal Green (MEM @ ATL)
I’m usually not a Green fan at all, but his matchup and price both seem like too good of an opportunity to pass up.
* GPP *
Draymond Green (GS vs OKC)
Dray’s numbers have really suffered over the last six games, only reaching 5x value one in that span. His numbers against OKC aren’t all that great either, but he does have a respectable upside that we have seen before. Talked about it the Klay blurb, but he and Dray are usually together on that second unit, where GS has a major advantage over OKC tonight.
Ryan Anderson (HOU @ BKN)
Ryno popped off with massive upside in Saturday’s game at Cleveland, and that makes sense since he’s a much better shooter on the road. Also, he’ll get a black and white backdrop to get himself off the red planet… it’s a real thing, folks.
Luc Mbah a Moute (HOU @ BKN)
The Rockets likely won’t need Mbah a Moute’s defensive presence out there tonight, but it doesn’t mean he can’t come into a few blocks and steals. The Nets do run one of the league’s fastest tempos and that at least creates these opportunities for Mbah a Moute.
Jabari Parker (MIL @ NYK)
Late addition to the list, but I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on Parker now with John Henson ruled inactive. Could lead to more points down low and/or rebounds.
* CAUTION *
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK vs MIL)
Has never reached 40 fantasy points on either site against the Bucks in seven career meetings.
CENTERS:
* ALL FORMATS *
Joel Embiid (PHI vs WSH)
Great matchup – 58.5 DKP/59.8 FDP vs WSH earlier this season. The Philly crowd should be all jacked up tonight after the Eagles Super Bowl win, and Embiid usually thrives in these meaningful games.
Marc Gasol (MEM @ ATL)
Great matchup against ATL. Let’s be honest, we attack this team all the time… why not do it with a seasoned vet/skillful individual?
Clint Capela (HOU @ BKN)
BKN: Best aDvP matchup for centers this season – Capela has a very realistic chance of posting a 20/20 tonight.
* CASH *
Enes Kanter (NYK vs MIL)
Prior to last game, Kanter had posted at least 17 points and 17 rebounds in three straight. He did post a 17 pt-18 rebound performance @MIL on Friday.
Julius Randle (LAL vs PHX)
Has consistently been a solid contributor but there’s not much upside built into his price.
* GPP *
Jonas Valanciunas (TOR vs BOS)
I don’t love the history of JoVal against the Celtics, but he is certainly worth a chance in large tournaments, given his recent massive upside. Not many people will likely pay up for JoVal either, and that makes him appealing from an ownership standpoint.
Channing Frye (CLE @ ORL)
I almost labeled this play “All Formats” but that might be stretching it a bit. Frye has played a lot more since the Kevin Love injury, and tonight he’ll return to Orlando, one of his former stomping grounds. If you’re a game-log watcher, toss away Saturday night’s game against the Rockets… The Cavs got absolutely demolished in that game and Frye just simply wasn’t needed as much.
Jarrett Allen (BKN vs HOU)
Two 30+ performances prior to last game – Allen does get into foul trouble, so stay in the GPP lane with him.
* SITUATIONAL *
Marreese Speights (ORL vs CLE)
If Jonathan Simmons misses tonight’s game that should force the Magic to play Speights 20+ minutes. After all, Speights had his most minutes in recent memory on the back-end of a B2B, just like the situation he’s in tonight.
Jahlil Okafor (BKN vs HOU)
I don’t mind going here if Quincy Acy is ruled out for tonight’s game. I doubt it would put Okafor in the starting lineup, but he could certainly get more minutes later in the game because of it.
