Follow me on Twitter: @14AdotWalsh
POINT GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS*
Stephen Curry (GS vs PHX)
No Dray means that Curry could have a lot more play-making responsibility. Any way you look it, Curry is going up against the Suns – GS ranks 2nd in pace while PHX is 3rd . I really wouldn’t worry too much about an incoming Warriors ass kicking… even if they do blow out the Suns, they’ll still have to score the points to get there.
Emmanuel Mudiay (NYK @ PHI)
It’s certainly a slight downgrade that the Knicks are playing on the back-end of a B2B, but Mudiay and Ntilikina are both so cheap that it’s difficult to pass up on at least one of them. Mudiay played 29 minutes in his Knicks debut yesterday, and as Bear mentioned on today’s pod (I laughed), he has basically been vacationing all year in Denver, so he shouldn’t be too fatigued.
* GPP *
Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN vs LAC)
Dinwiddie has been very productive over the last six games, but his price is a bit more than I’d like to pay. I do like that Caris LeVert is out because that keeps his role intact at about 33-35 minutes.
Elfrid Payton (PHX @ GS)
No Devin Booker for the Suns, so that gives Elf another chance to impress his new team. Statistically, the Warriors are a favorable matchup for opposing PGs since their rapid tempo creates more possessions.
Ish Smith (DET vs NO)
I love this matchup for Ish, whose Pistons team gets a sizable boost in tempo with the Pelicans in town. Ish isn’t exactly the safest play in the history of DFS, but I’ll give him the nod today since this is such a glorious spot.
Rajon Rondo (NO @ DET)
Rondo has played very well over the last few games, but it’s impossible to trust the minutes he’ll get. The price is still appealing enough to give him a shot in GPPs though.
TJ McConnell (PHI vs NYK)
Everyone is worried about the blowout in Oakland, but I think this is the game we need to worry about. McConnell could get some nice GT run, and his projected matchup against Emmanuel Mudiay is statistically one of the best on the board.
* DRAFTKINGS ONLY *
DJ Augustin (ORL @ CHI) – $5300 DK/$6100 FD
Jerian Grant (CHI vs ORL) – $5200 DK/$6200 FD
The prices for these guys on FanDuel have gotten to a point that I’m out on, but DraftKings certainly doesn’t think too highly of these fellas. Both guys have the starting PG role for their respective teams and this game has some decent shootout potential.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS *
Zach LaVine (CHI vs ORL)
ORL: 3rd-best aDvP matchup for SGs this season – LaVine was held out of the Bulls last game since they were on a B2B… he wasn’t happy, but said he understood why the decision was made. This could have LaVine very hungry on the court tonight, and the Bulls have been running a much faster tempo since he first came back into the lineup… that should mix well with the Magic, who run the league’s 7th-fastest pace.
Evan Fournier (ORL @ CHI)
Fournier’s numbers SHOULD improve with Elf Payton in Phoenix now. Last game was a bad test to that theory as he went up against the Bucks who are the league’s 2nd-best team against SGs. There really shouldn’t be too much defensive resistance at all in this game so I’m excited to see what Fournier can do with this opportunity.
Klay Thompson (GS vs PHX)
Klay won’t see a massive boost with Dray out of the lineup, but he certainly gets a boost facing the Suns.
* GPP *
Lou Williams (LAC @ BKN)
D’Angelo Russell (BKN vs LAC)
Both of these guys will likely match up against each other in their respective second-units… neither of them like to play defense and they can both score. I feel much safer with Sweet Lou in this matchup, as we know his 30 minutes are a sure thing. D-Russ ended up playing 31 minutes last game because of a double-overtime matchup with the Pelicans… the one thing on his side for tonight, though, is that Caris LeVert remains out with his eyes rolled back into his head. Thanks, Nene… ya douche.
Donovan Mitchell (UTA vs SA)
It’s an absolutely terrible spot for the Jazz on the back-end of a B2B against San Antonio, but Ricky Rubio has already been ruled out for tonight’s game… this put Mitchell at PG with full control of the offense. Mitchell seems to have gotten his groove back like Stella in these last two games that Rubio went down.
Alec Burks (UTA vs SA)
I am going to lose my shit if Burks (the second-best player on the Jazz) doesn’t get any run. Rubio has already been ruled out once again, so the Jazz will need some of these lesser players for more minutes in what could be a throwaway game on the back-end of a B2B… especially in San Antonio. I will be extremely surprised/disappointed if Burks doesn’t play at least 20 minutes.
SMALL FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS *
Kevin Durant (GS vs PHX)
The numbers don’t necessarily show a huge increase, but I am always very optimistic about playing KD when Dray is out. Reason being, I feel like KD takes more pride as the defensive anchor in this scenario and this could lead to more blocks and steals. I’m not worried about his recent history, I’m not worried about a potential blowout, I’m not worried about anything. KD is my favorite play of the night.
Mario Hezonja (ORL @ CHI)
Aaron Gordon is still out for the Magic, and Hezonja has filled in admirably… or I should say, more consistently than Jonathan Simmons who is also the same price on FanDuel.
DeMarre Carroll (BKN vs LAC)
There is no better aDvP matchup (1.182) in all of basketball than SFs going against the Clippers.
* GPP *
TJ Warren (PHX @ GS)
Warren had his struggles at times with Devin Booker out of the lineup, but he’s learned how to manage over the last few games… Elf Payton being there will probably help in tonight’s scenario. I’m mostly intrigued by the pace in this game, and Warren should have plenty of opportunities to score the basketball.
Reggie Bullock (DET vs NO)
I screamed about it on today’s podcast, but ever since the Pistons acquired Blake Griffin, the opposition just simply doesn’t give a shit about Bullock… they leave him wide open and he’s made them pay by going 14-for-27 from behind the arc since the trade. Also, I don’t think many people know Bullock is actually a SG (not a SF as he’s listed on FanDuel), and the Pelicans are the 2nd-best aDvP matchup for that position.
* CAUTION IN GPPs *
*** I feel like both guys will carry a decent ownership% in GPPs so we can avoid that massive ownership in those type of contests ***
Michael Beasley (NYK @ PHI)
I’m usually the biggest Beasley (without Porzingis) fan, but his matchup against Dario Saric is a very tough one. Add in the fact that the Knicks are on the back-end of a B2B (where they really don’t play well at all) and I’m out on all.
Royce O’Neale (UTA @ SA)
Back-end B2B for the Jazz going against San Antonio… I understand that Rubio is inactive and Hood has moved on from Utah, but this game has the slowest pace of the night and quite frankly, O’Neale is still a guy that we’re all learning about as each day that passes. He’s had a few nice games in recent memory (including one against the Spurs), but I’m not expecting the world from him in this B2B scenario.
POWER FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS *
Blake Griffin (DET vs NO)
Excellent spot for Griffin, who should draw the matchup with Nikola Mirotic… that’s really all I needed to convince me.
Davis Bertans (SA @ UTA)
No LMA tonight, so that means Bertans will get about 30 minutes in this game. He comes at a glorious discount for the type of role he’ll have tonight and that’s all I got to say about that. Griffin has hovered right around the 40-point mark since arriving in Detroit, and with the pace/matchup he should be able to blow right past that.
* CASH *
Dario Saric (PHI vs NYK)
Bear loved it on the pod, and I double-agreed. Saric will likely draw a matchup with the always-generous Beasley. The knock on Saric has historically been that you can’t play him with Embiid… well, my friends, those days are over. He can play under any circumstances nowadays.
* GPP *
Lauri Markkanen (CHI vs ORL)
Excellent opportunity for offense all over this CHI/ORL game. Markkanen has played about 35 minutes in each of the last two games since his return, so he’s back in the swing of things without missing a beat.
CENTERS:
* ALL FORMATS *
Anthony Davis (NO @ DET)
I’m just gonna leave this here, and keep in mind, that last performance came in only 27 minutes…
Pau Gasol (SA @ UTA)
Excellent price, and excellent numbers with LMA out of the lineup.
* CASH *
Joel Embiid (PHI vs NYK)
I don’t expect the Knicks to keep this game close at all, so I think that caps Embiid’s ceiling here. I do, however, think he’ll completely dominate Enes Kanter (and whoever else the Knicks throw at him) and drop 50 fantasy points on these fools.
DeAndre Jordan (LAC @ BKN)
BKN: Best aDvP matchup for centers this season – I’m never wowed when I think of what DJ’s possible upside could be. I think he’ll dominate the boards, have a good game and wind up somewhere in the neighborhood of 40… DJ never scores enough.
* GPP *
Andre Drummond (DET vs NO)
If the Pistons weren’t playing their second game in as many days I would have Drummond as an “all formats” play… that’s the only reason. Everything else about this matchup is fantastic, as his biggest strength (rebounding) is the Pelicans biggest weakness. I will definitely be shocked if Drummond doesn’t grab 20 rebounds tonight.
Jarrett Allen (BKN vs LAC)
On today’s pod, I called it… a teenager vs grown man matchup, and that’s exactly what it is. However, Allen has held his own since being inserted into the starting lineup and posted at least 35 FDP in three of those six games.
