Morning! I am going to identify some ridiculous value we have for Monday’s slate in this article. It isn’t a picks article, that will be my afternoon Slack Notes. This piece will be strictly to point out serious issues with pricing or significant value spots players might be in due to pricing and/or matchup.
PG
Emmanuel Mudiay – He played 28 minutes next to Frank Ntilikina and took 14-shots and finished with 10 assists. He has shown in the past he can score in bunches when given the minutes and usage. He’s only $3,900 and if he’s going to play nearly 30-minutes and take double-digit shots he’s someone I absolutely love today. A 29.5% usage rate from a near min-price guard is fantastic.
Austin Rivers – He continues to play heavy minutes coming off injury and Teodosic might still be out. Even if Teo is back, Rivers likely will play around 30-minutes as a combo guard and grab some minutes with Teo at point and Lou Williams off the court. Clippers have a strong 111.5 implied total.
Rajon Rondo – He’s played 30, 24, and 41 minutes and turned in 33.60, 28.80, and 55.00 FanDuel points in each game. He’s priced in the mid-5k price range and has had over a 20% usage rate in each game. If using him try to stack with AD for the assist + basket bonus and accrue a nice 3.5 points per play.
Frank Ntilikina – He played 30-minutes last game and Jarrett Jack found himself as the odd man out. Frank isn’t a big scorer but he can rack up steals and assists. He’s also priced way down and on a slate with a few studs on it that we will want to pay up for he’s likely a nice pivot OFF of Mudiay.
SG
D’Angelo Russell – His usage rate hovers around 30% and he played 31-minutes last game, his most since returning from injury. D Russ was a mid-7k player prior to his injury. If he’s going to play 30-minutes tonight, which isn’t a lock, he’s a super GPP option with a significant ceiling for a mid-5k player. If he returns to the starting lineup tonight I think that signals that he’ll play 30-plus minutes and I will basically just lock him in at that point.
Avery Bradley – Is there anybody playing emptier minutes in the NBA right now? He’s purely being used as a defensive player and getting only mid-teen usage. I won’t touch him tonight if Teo is back, BUT if Teo is out he’ll continue to get a full compliment of minutes at shooting guard and rotate with Rivers and Lou all game. Clippers have a strong total tonight and he could go for 30 FD points and smash his 4.2k price tag IF Teo is out.
Justin Holiday – I love this play tonight because everyone will flock to Jerian Grant (complete fade with LaVine back tonight and less than 10-shots per game) and Zach LaVine. Justin Holiday will continue to soak up heavy minutes at small forward and shooting guard and has a great pace up matchup against the Magic. The Bulls are implied to score nearly 6.0 more points tonight than their season-long average. The Magic defense is anything but magical and Justin might not score real points in bunches tonight, however, with the pace of the game he can rack up steals and peripherals to exceed value.
SF
DeMarre Carroll – He’s the most consistent player on the roster and this play has a lot to do with D Russ still running with the second unit. While they have minutes together on the court it is imperative for us to pay attention to the Nets starting lineup tonight. If D Russ is back as a starter, Carroll becomes purely a GPP option because his production goes way down with D Russ on the court. The correlation is extremely negative for Carroll. If D Russ is still a backup tonight, Carroll is a stud cash game option.
Royce O’Neale – This one is contingent on Ricky Rubio being inactive again tonight. Royce is averaging almost 1 ppm over the last month and had solid 33.2 FD points on Sunday as the starting shooting guard against the Blazers over 33-minutes played.
PF
David Bertans – He plays 30-plus minutes every game that LaMarcus Aldridge misses. Tonight, Aldridge is OUT which means Bertans will play 30-plus minutes and take around 12-14 shots. He’s sub-4k at a position I don’t mind paying down at IF not paying up for both Simmons and Blake (which I like the idea of paying up for both by the way).
C
Pau Gasol – In the last two games that Aldridge has missed, Pau slid into the starting lineup. In one game he exploded for 45 points and smashed his price tag, in the other he was priced up and failed to meet his value by 13 points. He’s likely just a GPP option tonight because the studs I want to pay up for are ALL at center tonight. Opportunity cost has me paying for one of them because I don’t want to miss out on the potential for a 70-plus scoring night from one of the premier bigs.
There are plenty of plays in great spots but this article was specifically to showcase the guys that are $500 + cheaper than they should be. In some cases these guys would be a couple thousand more for their specific role/matchup that they find themselves in tonight. Again, my afternoon notes will be more for plays and strategy but I thought this was more important to help members understand where the value is tonight when creating their player pools and beginning to work on projections.
Here are a couple links of strategy articles I have written if you are interested in more of my own personal process or strategies:
Intro to NBA Cash/GPP/Bankroll Approach and How to Use the Domination Station
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