PG
Kyle Lowry – He’s averaging 1.07 fpm and only has a 21.7% usage rate. That being said his matchup with the Wizards is a good one as he should feast on Tim Frazier and Tomas Satoransky. Neither of them are equipped to be able to keep up with Lowry and I think the offense will run through Lowry tonight. He’s a solid cash game option but I really want to target him in GPPs where I think a very competitive game on the road could bring the best out of Lowry.
Jeff Teague – He’s a great cash option on both FanDuel and DraftKings because of his mid-5k price tag. Similar to Darren Collison on Wednesday, he’s just underpriced and shouldn’t have a tough time reaching value. Due to his role on the team and a sub-20% usage rate, I don’t think he has the ceiling necessary to win a GPP, thus he isn’t really the best play for anything bigger than a small field GPP.
Russell Westbrook – He scored nearly 70-points against the Nuggets when they played in December. His matchup is delicious and he really can only top off his own ceiling by missing his shots. In a competitive game on the road, Westy has a superb ceiling. His usage rate of over 35% in the past month is second to none. I love him for cash and GPPs of all sizes. He’s just one of those guys you likely need exposure to in one way or another. Whether you lock him into cash or GPP, make sure he’s in one of them.
Dejounte Murray – He’s a great cash game option IF Chris Paul misses Thursday’s game. IF Paul does play then I won’t touch Murray because of a healthy CP3 defense.
SG
Malcolm Brogdon – With Eric Bledsoe OUT on Thursday, Brogdon will likely get some extra run with the first unit and be relied upon more to keep the offense chugging along. In his last 12-games of 29-minutes or more he’s scored 24+ FanDuel points. Only twice has he scored more than 40-points and only one other time has he topped 30. He makes for a very solid and safe cash game option that I don’t mind plugging in. However, his ceiling for GPPs is seemingly capped due to the shot volume that Middleton and Giannis soak up.
Khris Middleton – In the last seven games, Middleton has scored over 40-points in four separate games and never has scored less than 32-points. He’s a cash game stud and also has a legit GPP winning ceiling. In the last four weeks with Bledsoe off the court, Middleton has the highest usage rate on the entire team (34.1%) which is higher than Giannis Antetokounmpo’s at 32.5%. I LOVE KM tonight for all formats and all sites.
James Harden – If CP3 is ruled OUT then Harden will be incredibly chalky and rightfully so. However, due to his increased ownership and the opportunity to roster Giannis and/or Westbrook, I think the savvy move is to FADE Harden in GPPs and use him in cash (if CP3 is OUT). The elevated ownership with two other studs with similar ceilings is the ideal situation to fade someone in a GPP. The elevated ownership in a cash game by a guy who just dropped 100 points is the ideal situation to eat the chalk. That being said, his matchup with the Spurs is brutal and the Rockets are implied to score nearly 9.0 points less than their season-long average. I wouldn’t blame you for fading him in all formats tonight, especially if CP3 is back.
Lastly, if Eric Gordon is active tonight then I won’t touch Harden with a ten-foot pole no matter what.
SF
Giannis Antetokounmpo – I spelled that without looking and in one try, just like above. I hope it’s right and I refuse to spell-check. The Alphabet and his 32.5% usage rate in the last month without Bledsoe on the court is someone I love paying up for tonight in GPPs. However, Jimmy Butler defense is pretty solid and worries my enough to not want Giannis in cash games due to his ceiling possibly being capped. I think the Bucks attack through Middleton against Wiggins which is why I want KM more than Giannis tonight. If I am paying up over 12k it’s really hard for me not to pay for Westbrook in any format.
Will Barton – He’s just TOO cheap on DraftKings, where his price is still mid-5k. What a mess. He’s a lock on DK in all formats. I don’t care about the DvP, when a volume shooter is playing 38mpg as a starter the past 10-days I want to lock him in when he’s below average price tag.
Stanley Johnson – Likely will carry an elevated ownership tonight and while I think he’s a better player than he has been all year, he’s not as good as he was last game. He won’t take 21 shots again with Blake Griffin starting tonight for Detroit and he likely won’t make over 50% of them from the field. If Johnson is starting he isn’t a bad cash game play but he’s the ideal fade for GPPs coming off a career game.
PF
Markieff Morris – He continues to shoot the ball aggressively and he’s being asked to carry the load a bit more with Wall off the court. He’s responded well and is currently underpriced by about 1k based on his recent production. He’s a great cash game option and I love him for small field GPPs.
Serge Ibaka – He’s the ideal large field GPP play. He hasn’t been playing great since his suspension and either looks bored or injured. Either way, when he turns it up and is dialed in the guy has a 45-point ceiling. If he gets the better of Markieff tonight then you can get a 40 + player at single digit ownership as the crowd is all over Morris and likely Carmelo in GPPs.
Carmelo Anthony – He’s been incredibly consistent over the past month and is giving max effort on both sides of the ball. He’s a bit safer due to a larger sample size of success so he’s my favorite mid-tier power forward cash game play but my least favorite GPP option.
However, if you do fade Westy tonight, then I would certainly want to roster Paul George AND Carmelo Anthony, because the offense likely won’t be shut down by the Nuggets. Wilson Chandler, Will Barton, and Darrell Arthur are going to be struggling mightily to keep these two from scoring. That’s a GPP strategy to leverage against the Westy ownership by using the secondary scorers. Both are likely better plays for people who MME.
C
Karl-Anthony Towns – The Bucks are allowing opposing centers to make 62% of their field goal attempts over the last 10 games (third highest rate). His shot attempts have been all over the map as of late with games of 24, 16, 8, and 6 field goal attempts. However, he’s been incredibly efficient and has turned in games of 50, 50, 41, and 28 FanDuel points. If he’s on the high end of his attempts (which I think he will be with Butler possibly being blanketed by Giannis) then the offense could run through KAT. In this scenario, he would clearly have the highest ceiling out of all centers on the slate. I love him for GPPs and don’t mind him in cash.
Jonas Valancuinas – Is a great cash game center on DK. It’s weird to think that with his minutes being so sporadic but his game by game output has been dependable and his matchup with the Wizards is a solid one. He’s averaging 25 fppg and 1.13 fpm. He doesn’t need more than 24-26 minutes to not only reach value but to exceed value. I don’t mind him in GPPs as well but I am not sure if he has the type of ceiling I want out of my center when a high score will be needed because of the high-end studs on the slate.
Quick thought about a close Vegas spread:
I am worried about Beal against Derozan and Porter against OG defense tonight. I am also concerned about Derozan if Porter slides down on him. That is also why I think the offense flows through Lowry on the Raptors side of the ball and likely through Markieff on the Wizards side of the ball against Ibaka who doesn’t look fully healthy right now. His game has been “off” since he returned from his suspension.
