Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our free squares did last night. Our first free square of the night was Kyle O’Quinn who ended up with right around 24.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.6x value. Our second free square of the night was Michael Beasley who ended up with right around 38.75 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.2x value. Our final free square of the night was Brandon Ingram who ended up with right around 33.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.2x value.
Tonight
We have a huge slate ahead of us for Friday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Houston Rockets (116), Minnesota Timberwolves (113), and the Philadelphia 76ers (113). The highest priced players on the slate are LeBron James, James Harden, and Anthony Davis.
- Jose Calderon PG CLE ($3,200)
- Jose Calderon and the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the Atlanta Hawks tonight on the road tonight.The Cavaliers have an implied total sitting at right around 108-points and they are currently 1.5-point favorites. The Cavaliers have been playing at a pace of right around 101.0 and the Hawks have been playing at a total of right around 100.6. These teams play at virtually the same pace so neither is going to see much of a pace advantage tonight. Calderon is likely going to be guarded by Dennis Schroder who is a terrible defender. Calderon has the following stats on the season so far this season: 15.5 MPG, 1.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, .5 STLPG, 3.8 PPG, 9.5 FPPG, and a .61 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 22.16 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.96 DKFP. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. Calderon is about as low as you can go price wise and is going to be 30+ minutes tonight. I am not going to overthink this one and lock in Calderon as a value point guard tonight on Draftkings.
- Zach Lavine PG/SG CHI ($6,100)
- Zach Lavine and the Chicago Bulls will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves at home tonight. The Bulls have an implied total sitting at right around 106-points and they are currently 7.5-point underdogs. The Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 102.1 and the Timberwolves have been playing at a pace of right around 99.3. This is going to be a pace down game for the Bulls tonight but I still like the price and spot for Lavine tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by Andrew Wiggins who is a terrible defender. I am expecting a big offensive output for LaVine tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 23.5 MPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.6 APG, .1 BLKPG, 1.0 STLPG, 15.6 PPG, 27.6 FPPG, and a 1.17 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 33.552 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.5x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. Lavine has a solid matchup with Wiggins guarding him tonight. I think he should exploit Wiggins on the offensive end tonight. It’s also a revenge game for him as he gets to face his old team tonight. Load Lavine up at either guard position tonight on Draftkings.
- Jeff Green SF/PF CLE ($4,500)
- Jeff Green and the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the Atlanta Hawks tonight on the road tonight.The Cavaliers have an implied total sitting at right around 108-points and they are currently 1.5-point favorites. As I stated in the Calderon write-up the Cavaliers have been playing at a pace of right around 101.0 and the Hawks have been playing at a total of right around 100.6. These teams play at virtually the same pace so neither is going to see much of a pace advantage tonight. Jeff Green is likely going to be coming off the bench tonight but he should still see a ton of minutes as the Cavs don’t plan on playing any of their new guys tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 22.1 MPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, .4 BLKPG, .5 STLPG, 10.5 PPG, 18.3 FPPG, and a .83 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 27.486 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.11x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. The Cavs roster is super thin tonight due to the trades they made which means its all hands on deck for the remaining guys tonight. I expect Green to play a ton of minutes and crush value tonight. Load him up as a value forward on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a huge slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Jose Calderon tonight! Good luck Army!
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