Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
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Let’s take a look at how our free squares did last night. Our first free square of the night was Mario Hezonja who ended up with 21.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.8x value. Our second free square of the night was T.J. Warren who ended up with right around 44 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.6x value. Our final free square of the night was Julius Randle who ended up with right around 39 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.7x value.
Tonight
We have a medium slate ahead of us for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Minnesota Timberwolves (114), New Orleans Pelicans (112), and the Cleveland Cavaliers (110). The highest priced players on the slate are Anthony Davis, James Harden, and LeBron James.
- Nikola Mirotic PF NOP ($6,500)
- Nikola Mirotic and the New Orleans Pelicans will take on the Indiana Pacers at home tonight. The Pacers have an implied total sitting at right around 112-points and they are currently 3.5-point favorites. The Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 103.9 and the Pacers play at a pace of right around 99.5. Pace down game for the Pelicans tonight but I still like the price for Mirotic tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by Thad Young who is a decent defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 25.3 MPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 APG, .5 BLKPG, .7 STLPG, 16.4 PPG, 30.3 FPPG, and a 1.20 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 36.192 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.57x value. He is projected to play 34 minutes tonight. Mirotic has solid FPPM numbers and he is going to play all the minutes he can handle tonight. I still think he is a but underpriced and makes a great play at power forward tonight on Draftkings.
- Myles Turner C IND ($5,600)
- Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers will take on the New Orleans Pelicans on the road tonight. The Pacers have an implied total sitting at right around 109-points and they are currently 3.5-point underdogs. As I stated in the Mirotic write-up the Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 103.9 and the Pacers play at a pace of right around 99.5. This is going to be a nice pace up game for the Pacers tonight as they face one of the fastest teams in the league tonight. Turner is likely going to be guarded by Anthony Davis tonight who is a decent defender. Turner has the following stats on the season so far this year: 28.1 MPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 2.1 BLKPG, .5 STLPG, 13.5 PPG, 28.9 FPPG, and a 1.03 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 32.827 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.86x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. Turner also has a solid FPPM number and has a nice pace up matchup tonight. Oladipo might be out as well which would leave the Pacers with a lot more fantasy opportunities. Load up Turner as a mid-tier forward with solid upside tonight.
- Stanley Johnson SG/SF DET ($4,700)
- Stanley Johnson and the Detroit Pistons will take on the Brooklyn Nets tonight at home. The Pistons have an implied total sitting at right around 109-points and they are currently 9.5-point favorites tonight. The Pistons have been playing at a pace of right around 99.1 and the Nets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.5. This is going to be a nice pace up game for the Pistons and Stanley tonight. Stanley is likely going to be guarded by Demarre Carroll tonight who is an average defender. Stanley has the following stats on the season so far this year: 27.5 MPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, .2 BLKPG, 1.2 STLPG, 8.2 PPG, 18.4 FPPG, and a .67 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 25.352 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.4x value. He is projected to play right around 34 minutes tonight. Stanley isn’t always the most enticing fantasy player but I think he is in a good spot tonight and it should be an uptempo game. He is priced right and I like him as a value guard or forward on Draftkings tonight
Free Square of the Night
We have a medium sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Nikola Mirotic tonight! Good luck Army!
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