Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Tonight
We have a medium sized slate ahead of us for Monday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Denver Nuggets (112), Los Angeles Clippers (110), and the New Orleans Pelicans (108). The highest priced players on the slate are Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, and Damian Lillard.
- Dwight Powell PF/C DAL ($3,700)
- Dwight Powell and the Dallas Mavericks will take on the Los Angeles Clippers on the road tonight. The Mavericks have an implied total sitting at right around 104-points and they are currently 6.0-point underdogs. The Mavericks have been playing at a pace of right around 98.0 and the Clippers have been playing at a pace of right around 101.8. This is going to be a significant pace up game for the Mavericks tonight which should provide a nice fantasy boost for the whole team including Powell tonight. Powell is likely going to be guarded by Deandre Jordan tonight who has a 1.45 DRPM. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 18.6 MPG, 4.9 RPG, .8 APG, .4 BLKPG, 7.1 PPG, 16.6 FPPG, and a .89 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 26.024 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 7.03x value. He is projected to play right around 30 minutes tonight. Powell is dirt cheap tonight and he is going to see a bunch of minutes tonight. Don’t overthink this one and load up Powell as a value forward or center tonight.
- Nikola Mirotic PF NOP ($5,800)
- Nikola Mirotic and the New Orleans Pelicans will take on the Utah Jazz at home tonight. The Pelicans have an implied total sitting at right around 108-points and they are currently 1.0-point favorites. The Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 103.9 and the Jazz have been playing at a pace of right around 98.5. This is going to be a pace down game for the Pelicans tonight but I still like the price for Mirotic tonight. He is likely going to be coming off the bench tonight but he will see plenty of minutes tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 25.2 MPG, 6.6. RPG, 1.6 APG, .5 BLKPG, .7 STLPG, 16.8 PPG, 31.0 FPPG, and a 1.23 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 36.281 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.25x value. He is projected to play right around 33 minutes tonight. Mirotic has a high FPPM and I expect him to play a good amount of minutes tonight. He is still priced too low in my opinion and makes a great play at power forward tonight on Draftkings.
- Andre Drummond C DET ($9,200)
- Andre Drummond and the Detroit Pistons will take on the Portland Trailblazers at home tonight. The Pistons have an implied total sitting at right around 107-points and they are currently 2.5-point favorites. The Pistons have been playing at a pace of right around 99.1 and the Trailblazers have been playing at a pace of right around 99.8. This is going to be a neutral pace game as both of these teams play at relatively the same pace. Drummond is likely going to be guarded by Jusuf Nurkic tonight who has a DRPM of right around 2.87. Drummond has the following stats on the season so far this year: 33.1 MPG, 15.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.4 BLKPG, 1.7 STLPG, 15.0 PPG, 45.8 FPPG, and a 1.38 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 45.28 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.92 value. He is projected to play 34 minutes tonight. It’s a tougher defensive matchup but Drummond has impressive numbers on the season and he is not completely offensive dependant. He has a great FPPM number and I like him as a higher priced center on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a medium sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Dwight Powell tonight! Good luck Army!
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