Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Tonight
We have a huge sized slate ahead of us for Monday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: New Orleans Pelicans (123), Golden State Warriors (120), and the Phoenix Suns (115). The highest priced players on the slate are Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, and James Harden.
- Jamal Crawford SG MIN ($3,800)
- Jamal Crawford and the Minnesota Timberwolves will take on the Sacramento Kings on the road tonight. The Timberwolves have an implied total sitting at right around 111-points and they are currently 5.5-point underdogs. The Timberwolves have been playing at a pace of right around 99.5 and the Kings have been playing at a pace of right around 98.2. This is going to be a slight pace down game for the Timberwolves tonight but I love the price and matchup for Crawford tonight. Crawford is likely going to coming off the bench but he should significant minutes which will allow him to crush his value tonight. Crawford has the following stats on the season so far this year: 19.1 MPG, 1.1 RPG, 2.3 APG, .1 BLKPG, .5 STLPG, 10.3 PPG, 16.5 FPPG, and a .86 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 23.703 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.24x value. He is projected to play right around 27 minutes tonight. Crawford is going to see 25+ minutes tonight at an almost rock-bottom price against a horrible defensive team. Load him up as a value shooting guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Nemanja Bjelica SF/PF MIN ($4,700)
- Nemanja Bejelica and the Minnesota Timberwolves will take on the Sacramento Kings on the road tonight. The Timberwolves have an implied total sitting at right around 111-points and they are currently 5.5-point underdogs. As stated in the Crawford write-up the Timberwolves have been playing at a pace of right around 99.5 and the Kings have been playing at a pace of right around 98.2. Yes, it is going to be a pace down game but neither team plays that fast and the Kings have been horrendous on defense this year. Bjelica is likely going to be guarded by Justin Jackson who is just an average defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 16.1 MPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.0 APG, .1 BLKPG, .6 STLPG, 5.8 PPG, 13.0 FPPG, and a .81 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 28.454 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.05x value. He is projected to play right around 33 minutes tonight. Butler is going to be out for the foreseeable future which means a ton of fantasy opportunity has opened up on the Timberwolves. Bjelica is going to be one of the beneficiaries of that opened up production and I love the spot he is in tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier forward tonight on Draftkings tonight.
- John Collins PF/C ATL ($5,800)
- John Collins and the Atlanta Hawks will take on the Los Angeles Lakers at home tonight. The Hawks have an implied total sitting at right around 110-points and they are currently 1.5-point favorites. The Hawks have been playing at a pace of right around 100.6 and the Lakers have been playing at the fastest pace in the league at right around 105.0. This is going to be a significant pace up game for the Hawks tonight. Collins is likely going to be guarded by Julius Randle tonight who is a below average defender. Collins has the following stats on the season so far this year: 22.3 MPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.2 BLKPG, .6 STLPG, 10.2 PPG, 23.6 FPPG, and a 1.05 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 34.96 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.03x value. He is projected to play 30 minutes tonight. This is going to be a nice pace up higher scoring game for the Hawks and Collins tonight. I like his price and matchup tonight and think he will exceed his value tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a huge slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Jamal Crawford tonight! Good luck Army!
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