Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did last night. Our first free square of the night was Will Barton ended up with right around 33.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.1x value. Our second free square of the night was Khris Middleton who ended up with right around 41.80 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.8x value. Our final free square of the night was Jamal Murray who ended up with 46.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 8.1x value.
Tonight
We have a large slate ahead of us for Friday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Golden State Warriors (118), Oklahoma City Thunder (116), and the New Orleans Pelicans (110). The highest priced players on the slate are Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
- John Henson C MIL ($4,800)
- John Henson and the Milwaukee Bucks will take on the New York Knicks at home tonight. The Bucks have an implied total sitting at right around 104-points and they are currently 2.5-point underdogs. The Bucks have been playing at a pace of right around 99.0 and the Knicks have been playing at a pace of right around 100.4. This is going to be a pace up game for the Bucks tonight as they are one of the slowest teams in the league. Henson is likely going to be guarded Enes Kanter tonight who is a terrible defender. I expect a nice little offensive output tonight from Henson. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 25.2 MPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.4 BLKPG, .5 STLPG, 8.9 PPG, 22.8 FPPG, and a .90 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 25.01 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.21x value. He is projected to play right around 28 minutes tonight. Great matchup and a great price make Henson a solid value play at center tonight on Draftkings.
- Demar DeRozan SG/SF TOR ($7,700)
- Demar DeRozan and the Toronto Raptors will take on the Portland Trailblazers at home tonight. The Raptors have an implied total sitting at right around 110-points and they are currently 4.0-point favorites. The Raptors have been playing at a pace of right around 101.9 and the Trailblazers have been playing at a pace of right around 100.0. This is going to be a pace down game for the Raptors tonight but I still like the spot for DeRozan tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by Evan Turner who is a below average defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 34.4 MPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.2 APG, .3 BLKPG, 1.2 STLPG, 24.4 PPG, 39.7 FPPG, and a 1.15 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 39.295 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.1x value. He is projected to play 34 minutes tonight. I expect a big offensive night for DeRozan tonight and think he has solid upside in the matchup. Load him up as a higher priced guard or forward on Draftkings tonight.
- Jrue Holiday PG/SG NOP ($7,700)
- Jrue Holiday and the New Orleans Pelicans will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road tonight. The Pelicans have an implied total sitting at right around 110-points and they are currently 5.5-point underdogs. The Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 103.8 and the Thunder have been playing at a pace of right around 99.9. It’s a significant pace down game for the Pelicans tonight but I still like the price for Holiday tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by Russell Westbrook who is a decent defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 36.6 MPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.3 APG, .7 BLKPG, 1.4 STLPG, 18.7 PPG, 35.9 FPPG, and a .98 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 37.846 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.91x value. He is projected to play right around 36 minutes tonight. Holiday is a guy who plays a ton of minutes and even though he is going up against Russ tonight I still expect a nice game out of him tonight. He makes a great play at either guard position tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a large slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with John Henson tonight! Good luck Army!
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