Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
Let’s take a look back and see how our free squares did last night. Our first free square of the night was Jose Calderon who ended up with right around 20.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.3x value. Our second free square of the night was Zach Lavine who ended up with right around 46.75 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.2x value. Our final free square of the night was Jeff Green who ended up with right around 35.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 7.9x value.
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Tonight
We have a decent slate ahead of us for Saturday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Denver Nuggets (114), Golden State Warriors (113), and the Philadelphia 76ers (111). The highest priced players on the slate are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Kevin Durant.
- Bradley Beal SG WSH ($9,000)
- Bradley Beal and the Washington Wizards will take on the Chicago Bulls tonight on the road. The Wizards have an implied total sitting at right around 110-points and they are currently 6.0-point favorites. The Wizards have been playing at a pace of right around 101.1 and the Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 102.2. This is going to be a nice pace up game for the Wizards tonight and Beal should see some extra fantasy opportunities. Beal is likely going to be guarded by Justin Holiday tonight who is a decent defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 36.2 MPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.1 APG, .5 BLKPG, 1.2 STLPG, 23.7 PPG, 38.9 FPPG, and a 1.08 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 44.09 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.9x value. He is projected to play right around 38 minutes tonight. Beal is going to see a ton of minutes tonight in what should be an uptempo game for the Wizards tonight. With no John Wall Beal has the green light and I expect him to have a big offensive night tonight. Load him up as a higher priced shooting guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Jerian Grant PG CHI ($5,000)
- Jerian Grant and the Chicago Bulls will take on the Washington Wizards at home tonight. The Bulls have an implied total sitting at right around 104-points and they are currently 6.0-point underdogs. As talked about in the Beal write-up the Wizards have been playing at a pace of right around 101.1 and the Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 102.2. It’s a slight pace down game for the Bulls tonight but neither of these teams plays slow by any means. Grant is likely going to be guarded by Tomas Satoransky tonight who is an okay defender. Grant has the following stats on the season so far this year: 23.1 MPG, 2.6 RPG, 4.9 APG, .7 STLPG, 8.4 PPG, 20.5 FPPG, and a .89 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.539 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.92x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. For the number of minutes and expected production, I think Grant is simply priced too low tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier guard with upside tonight on Draftkings.
- Patty Mills PG CLE ($3,800)
- Patty Mills and the San Antonio Spurs will take on the Golden State Warriors tonight on the road. The Spurs have an implied total sitting at right around 104-points and they are currently 10.5-point underdogs. The Spurs have been playing at a pace of right around 97.2 and the Warriors have been playing at a pace of right around 103.7. This is a matchup of one of the slowest teams in the league going up against one of the fastest teams in the league. Mills should see a nice fantasy boost tonight. Mills is likely going to be guarded by Stephen Curry tonight who has struggled a bit on the defensive end this year. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 23.6 MPG, 1.9 RPG, 2.6 APG, .1 BLKPG, .7 STLPG, 9.7 PPG, 17.9 FPPG, and a .76 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 26.681 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 7.02x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. Mills is dirt cheap tonight has a solid matchup and will be playing in a pace up game tonight. Don’t overthink this one and load up Mills in your lineups tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a decent slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Patty Mills tonight! Good luck Army!
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