Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did last night. Our first free square of the night was Nikola Mirtoic didn’t do anything as he was a late scratch. Our second free square of the night was Spencer Dinwiddie who ended up with right around 35.0 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.6x value. Our final free square of the night was Terry Rozier who ended up with 58.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 11.1x value.
Tonight
We have a shorter slate ahead of us for Thursday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Oklahoma City Thunder (109), Toronto Raptors (109), and the Minnesota Timberwolves (109). The highest priced players on the slate are James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
- Will Barton SG/SF DEN ($5,500)
- Will Barton and the Denver Nuggets will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder at home tonight. The Nuggets have an implied total sitting at right around 108-points and they are currently 1.0-point underdogs. The Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 99.8 and the Oklahoma CIty Thunder play at a pace of right around 99.8. These teams play at an identical pace so neither team will gain much of an advantage tonight in the pace department. Barton is likely going to be guarded by Paul George tonight who is just an average defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 31.5 MPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.0 APG, .6 BLKPG, 1.1 STLPG, 14.2 PPG, 29.7 FPPG, and a .94 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 32.488 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.91x value. He is projected to play right around 35 minutes tonight. I like the price and spot for Barton tonight. He should see a ton of minutes in what should be a close game. Load him up as a mid-tier guard or forward tonight on Draftkings.
- Khris Middleton SG/SF MIL ($7,100)
- Khris Middleton and the Milwaukee Bucks will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight on the road tonight. The Bucks have an implied total sitting at right around 103-points and they are currently 5.5-point underdogs. The Bucks have been playing at a pace of right around 99.0 and the Timberwolves have been playing at a pace of right around 99.1. These teams play at pretty much the identical pace so neither team is going to gain much of an advantage tonight. Middleton is likely going to be guarded by Andrew Wiggins who is a terrible defender. I expect a big offensive outing for Middleton tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 37.1 MPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.3 APG, .2 BLKPG, 1.3 STLPG, 20.4 PPG, 36.3 FPPG, and a .98 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 36.093 which would be good enough for right around 5.08x value. He is projected to play right around 37 minutes tonight. Middleton is always a guy you can count on to play a ton of minutes. He gets matched up with Andrew Wiggins tonight which means an easy night for him offensively. Load him up as a higher priced guard or forward with upside tonight on Draftkings.
- Jamal Murray PG/SG DEN ($5,700)
- Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder at home tonight. The Nuggets have an implied total sitting at right around 108-points and they are currently 1.0-point underdogs. As stated in the Barton write up the Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 99.8 and the Oklahoma City Thunder play at a pace of right around 99.8. These teams play at an identical pace so neither team will gain much of an advantage tonight in the pace department. Murray is likely going to be guarded by Russell Westbrook who is a decent defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 30.1 MPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.9 APG, .3 BLKPG, .8 STLPG, 16.2 PPG, 27.3 FPPG, and a .91 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 31.044 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.24x value. He is projected to play right around 34 minutes tonight. I think Murray is a bit underpriced tonight and he makes a solid play at either guard position on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a short slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Will Barton tonight! Good luck Army!
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