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POINT GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Russell Westbrook (OKC vs LAL)
Westbrook has posted nearly 2 FP/min against the Lakers in his last 6 meetings… think about that. Sure, I have some worry about OKC blowing the doors off the Lakers, but he still posted 48 DKP/46.2 FDP in just 28 minutes in that same exact scenario two weeks ago.
Stephen Curry (GS @ CHI)
I’m just a big fan of Curry, I didn’t need the news of Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala being out to steer me in this direction… but it certainly helps! Curry sees a slight usage bump of about 2.5% up to 34% with those two off the floor.
Goran Dragic (MIA @ MIL)
Tyler Johnson has been ruled OUT for tonight’s game, so Dragic should see nearly 40 minutes in this game. The matchup vs MIL is actually the 5th-worst for PGs this season, but it’s hard to pass up that many minutes at only $7100 FD… he’s slightly more expensive on DK, and oddly not as appealing to me over there.
* GPP
Kyle Lowry (TOR vs DET)
This will be Lowry’s second game back from injury, which has been the magic number for a few different players so far this season… I don’t know what it is, but a lot of players’ (Aaron Gordon, Tim Hardaway Jr, etc) second game back from an injury go bananas. Lowry played 37 minutes on Monday, a great sign for his first game back, and a few PGs (Spencer Dinwiddie, Kris Dunn, etc) have had some nice games recently vs DET.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Tyreke Evans (MEM vs NYK) – *** Only if Marc Gasol in is INACTIVE
Obviously, we need the Gasol news before going here, as Evans sees a usage bump up to 31.8%… if James Ennis III is out as well, it jumps up to 34.5%.
Kent Bazemore (ATL vs NO)
NO: 2nd-most turnovers per game and they’re also on the back-end of a B2B… look for him to get some extra steals tonight. Bazemore is always deadly in these up-tempo games and NO is the 5th-best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate.
Tyrone Wallace (LAC vs DEN)
DEN: 6th-most turnovers per game and they’re also on the back-end of a B2B. Wallace has at least two steals in four of his six games since joining the Clippers, and he’s played at least 31 minutes in five of those six games.
* GPP
Lou Williams (LAC vs DEN)
DEN is on the back-end of a B2B, so I think what is usually a “red” matchup turns into a “green” one real quick. Gary Harris is a solid defender, you get no argument from me there, but playing in Denver last night will certainly take its toll on everyone. The reason Sweet Lou stays in the GPP section is that he may not be needed for 40+ mins if the Nuggets don’t come to play tonight.
Tim Hardaway Jr (NYK @ MEM)
THJ ruined most people’s MLK Day, but not mine. Now that he’s priced all the way up to $6400 on FanDuel, I doubt anyone will be taking the chance. His $5900 price tag on DraftKings is a little more acceptable, but it’s still not a comfortable area for only playing about 28 minutes in a pace-down matchup. THJ does have the ability to pop off at any time (in any matchup), and that’s why he stays here in the GPP section.
SMALL FORWARDS:
Kevin Durant (GS @ CHI)
Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala are both INACTIVE for tonight’s game, so KD sees a nice uptick in every aspect of the game. I love going with KD when the Warriors are Dray-less because he really seems to take on that lock-down defender role with pride, and that’s very appealing for FanDuel especially. KD should reach value on points/assists/rebounds alone, but his defensive potential now puts him firmly in play. You know I don’t use the “L” word very often… this is about as close as I get to actually saying it.
DeMarre Carroll (BKN vs SA)
Carroll has posted 30+ fantasy points in three-straight games, and it looks like he’s playing some of the best (and consistent) basketball of his career right now. Yeah, I went there! The absence of Kawhi Leonard from the Spurs lineup is not reflected in Carroll’s price, so we should all take advantage of that.
* MATCHUP-BASED
Paul George (OKC vs LAL)
SFs against the Lakers are currently the best aDvP matchup in the entire NBA up to this point in the season! Let’s not forget all the hoopla surrounding PG13 potentially (probably) heading for LA… he wants to show his future teammates what they can expect alongside them next season.
* GPP
Otto Porter (WSH @ CHA)
CHA has been gotten torched by shitty SFs over the last few games, most notably Joe Ingles and Reggie Bullock. If Markieff Morris would’ve been a good boy and sat this game out, I would’ve probably actually used that “L” word. Now, it’s just a good matchup that we hope he can take advantage of.
POWER FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
LaMarcus Aldridge (SA @ BKN)
LMA gets a nice boost in production with Kawhi Leonard out of the lineup, and he should dominate this under-sized Nets front-line. I do wonder how much the Spurs will extend Pau Gasol, who has a sore wrist, and any time that he gets cut short would drastically help LMA as well.
Blake Griffin (LAC vs DEN)
The Nuggets come into LA sluggish, on the back-end of a B2B, and the Clippers will likely be without DeAndre Jordan for this game. This typically leads to more rebounds for Griffin, who has 9.9 rebounds/36 minutes with DJ off the floor… Griffin has 8 rebounds/36 minutes with DJ on the floor. Also, if you subscribe to the fact that Lou Williams will be in a much tougher matchup than usual, then more offense should funnel Griffin’s way.
* GPP
Davis Bertans (SA @ BKN)
Bertans has been playing a lot more since the start of the new year, and this matchup vs BKN should have him crush value. I just mentioned it with LMA, but if the Spurs want to limit Gasol with the sore wrist, Bertans would be a huge beneficiary. Also, if you think the Spurs will crush my boys tonight, it’s not a bad game theory scenario to roll out Bertans.
Jordan Bell (GS @ CHI)
As I said on today’s podcast… “He’s not a lock, he’s not a fade. He’s Jordan Bell.” Basically, what I’m saying is that we really don’t know what we’re going to get… and that’s why he resides in the GPP section. There are so many layers to break down with Bell, and I’ll do that in the #AdotWalsh-MLB-NBA channel upon request today.
Trey Lyles (DEN vs DAL)
Only played 15 minutes last night vs DAL and 19 in the game before @SA, but that was their sixth game in nine days and not many Nuggets played their usual allotment of time. I feel like the 15 minutes Lyles played last night was to keep him fresh for this matchup tonight against Blake Griffin, and his price has dropped down below $6k on both sites.
* TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
Anthony Davis (NO @ ATL)
ATL is the 2nd-best aDvP matchup for PFs on tonight’s slate – AD does have 50+ fantasy points on both sites in three of four back-end B2B games this season, yet he’s also missed two games in that scenario. I know this is a fantastic matchup, but the Pelicans did play a tough overtime game in Boston last night and AD was the one that exerted most of his energy.
CENTERS:
* ALL FORMATS
DeMarcus Cousins (NO @ ATL)
Hovering right around the 50 fantasy-point mark in five of the six back-end B2B games this season… his last one (vs NYK) went for 63.3 DKP/59.8 FDP via 29 points and 19 rebounds. I think this game sets up well for Boogie, as AD was the one who went bananas last night. It’s also worth noting, ATL is a “green” aDvP matchup for centers, and they were much worse when Dewayne Dedmon was in the lineup… when he was injured, ATL actually improved against centers and allowed more points to the PF position.
* CASH GAMES
Dewayne Dedmon (ATL vs NO)
The Hawks will NEED Dedmon out there tonight against the AD/Boogie combo, and I wouldn’t even be surprised if he got the start in this game. Dedmon has played anywhere from 18-25 minutes (the 25 minutes coming in that last game vs SA) over these last four games and his fantasy-point totals have been going up incrementally in that span as well.
* GPP
Willie Reed (LAC vs DEN)
Reed got benched in favor of Montrezl Harrell in the Clippers last game, but that was to counteract the Rockets rapid up-tempo pace… something they will certainly not have to deal with tonight. I think whether it’s Nikola Jokic or Mason Plumlee that gets more minutes tonight, Reed matches up much better against either guy.
* TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
Nikola Jokic (DEN @ LAC)
Jokic balled outrageous last night and he’s got a fantastic matchup (especially if DeAndre Jordan is inactive), so that will likely have him highly-owned in this game. However, let us remember the Nuggets are on the back-end of a B2B (coming in from Denver), and Jokic exerted a ton of energy last night. 30 minutes on the front-end of a B2B
x 11/4 – day before in DEN, played 34 mins vs MIA… DEN plays terrible vs GS the next night
* 12/27 – day before in DEN, played 26 mins in blowout win vs UTA… plays great the next night
1/6 – day before in DEN, played 32 mins vs UTA… goes 3-10 on FG with 5 TOs next night
* 1/13 – day before in DEN, played 28 mins vs MEM… plays great the next night
