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* PELICANS @ CELTICS *
The line in Vegas on this game is somewhat telling as the Celtics opened as 4.5-point favorites… and that kind of puts this in no-man’s land. The public has jumped all over the Celtics (as of 5pm) to tune of 85% on tickets (casual bettors) – I couldn’t find the exact stat on it, but teams that have 80% or more of public betting on tickets have a terrible ATS record. The main takeaway is that this should be a competitive game and I think that bodes well for both sides.
POINT GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Damian Lillard (POR vs PHX)
Lillard has been fantastic vs PHX over the last two seasons (six games), averaging 48.7 DKP/46.9 FDP in that span. It is also worth noting that Lillard will be matched up with Tyler Ulis for most of the night, who ranks 88th out of 97 PGs in DRPM this season.
Kyrie Irving (BOS vs NO)
While everyone is hung up on the narrative across the floor, Kyrie will be taking a Pelicans team that has allowed 100+ points all but one game over their last 22… and the only misnomer, they allowed 98 points. If you take a look at Kyrie’s game log, you’ll notice that the upside we’re used to seeing from him isn’t there… I think a lot of that has to do with being on a more defensively-focused Celtics team, but taking on the Pelicans should produce more points than usual for both sides.
Dennis Smith Jr / Yogi Ferrell (DAL @ DEN)
DEN is the 3rd-best aDvP matchup for PGs on this slate (6th-best this season) – JJ Barea has already been ruled OUT for tonight’s game, so both guys should see a huge workload. We had a very spirited debate about Ferrell this morning in the Slack chat, with mostly everyone coming out on the “Pro-Ferrell” side of things. Basketball Monster had a note this afternoon saying that Maxi Kleber could potentially enter the starting lineup to match up with Mason Plumlee, and that would move Ferrell to the bench. I’m not too worried about this because Ferrell will still play 30+ minutes, making this a Caris LeVert-like situation. The discussion for DSJ is a simpler one… he’ll be starting at PG and has a locked-in workload no matter what.
* GPP
Jamal Murray (DEN vs DAL)
Murray hasn’t looked great over the last few games, but we can attribute that to the brutal string of games they were on, which spanned out to six over nine days! The Nuggets got two full days off before coming back home for this one and DAL is the 2nd-best aDvP matchup for PGs on this slate (4th-best this season).
Rajon Rondo (NO @ BOS)
🎵 He’s coming home, coming home, tell the world heeeeeeeee’s coming home 🎵 – I can’t stand using Rondo when both AD and Boogie are healthy, but it is worth noting that Rondo has two 50+ fantasy-point performances in Boston since 2015…. Howevahhhhh, he had five and six steals in each of those games, certainly a huge misnomer. I’m probably not using Rondo, but I’d be a damn fool to not at least mention this narrative.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Devin Booker (PHX @ POR)
With TJ Warren inactive, Booker basically has the same usage rate and stats that he usually does. OK, that doesn’t sound appealing, but Booker has scored at least 28 (real) points in three of his last four games vs POR.
Jrue Holiday (NO @ BOS)
I don’t think anyone will be looking at Holiday tonight, and that’s a big mistake. Sure, the numbers in his last game are inflated because of overtime, but this is still a guy that we can count on to get us at least 35 fantasy points (on either site) under any circumstances. SGs vs BOS are the only “green” matchup according to our aDvP chart.
CJ McCollum (POR vs PHX)
If you can afford McCollum today, by all means, go for it. Aside from last game, he’s been incredibly consistent, and it looks like that time without Damian Lillard really helped him get back in the groove… even when Lillard came back.
* GPP
Pat Connaughton (POR vs PHX)
Shabazz Napier is listed as “questionable” for tonight’s game, so if that turns into an inactive, everyone’s (my) favorite Irishman should see big minutes again. Connaughton played 28 minutes at Minnesota on Sunday, and that was with Napier leaving after only 12 minutes.
SMALL FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Jimmy Butler (MIN @ ORL)
There should be little-to-no resistance for Butler against Jonathan Simmons, who ranks 461st out of 471 NBA players in DRPM. Butler’s price has come down after two underwhelming performances, but I’m not too worried about those… this is a situation we should fully expect him to be in the 40-50 range.
Josh Jackson (PHX @ POR)
Jackson was listed as “questionable” coming into today, but he is confirmed to be in the starting lineup with TJ Warren and Marquese Chriss inactive. The rookie out of Kansas missed one game last week, yet came back two days later and dumped in a career-high 21 points in the same situation he’ll be in tonight. SFs vs POR is also the only “green” matchup for PHX, according to our aDvP chart.
* GPP
Jaylen Brown (BOS vs NO)
Brown will play his minutes at the two and three, both favorable aDvP matchups against the Pelicans. He’s played at least 29 minutes in each of the last five games and reached/exceeded salary-based expectations in four of those games.
POWER FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Anthony Davis (NO @ BOS)
Boston has never seen the likes of AD and Boogie on the court at the same time, so we get to play another episode of the guessing game. Yay! AD, himself, has had a solid history against the Celtics, posting 55 fantasy points (on both sites) five of the last six meetings.
Al-Farouq Aminu (POR vs PHX)
PHX: 2nd-best aDvP matchup for PFs on tonight’s slate (4th-best this season) – Aminu has had his fair share of ups and downs over the last few games, but I feel like this matchup trumps all. He’s well-suited for these up-tempo matchups, and they’ll NEED him to deal with Dragan Bender on the other side of this matchup… stop laughing, all you Bender haters. He’s still a physically-imposing body and Aminu’s length will make his life difficult.
* GPP
Gorgui Dieng (MIN @ ORL)
Gorgeous Dong has played well recently, and that has put him on the court for at least 20 minutes in four of the last five games… also posting at least 20 FDP in four of those five. If you check out our Depth Chart Hub (located on the website under the “NBA” tab), you’ll see that the T-Wolves are a much better rebounding team than the Magic, and that should give Dieng the extra push he needs to easily reach value at only $3700 on both sites.
Daniel Theis (BOS vs NO)
Theis has seen an uptick in minutes over the last three games (while posting at least 20 fantasy points), and conventional wisdom would have you think this continues once again. We have talked about it at nauseum, but teams going against the Pelicans NEED their bigs on the court more to counteract AD and Boogie.
CENTERS:
* ALL FORMATS
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN vs ORL)
I just mentioned it in the Dong space, but the T-Wolves have a significant rebounding advantage over the Magic. The most appealing part of that is that the T-Wolves have been especially great at offensive rebounding while the Magic are dead-last in rebounding of the defensive end… this could lead to a number of put-backs for KAT. Advanced thinking 101, folks.
* GPP
Nikola Jokic (DEN vs DAL)
We’ve had a big discussion about Jokic earlier today in the Slack chat, and the main takeaway is that this guy has all the talent in the world… but he doesn’t show it every night. Jokic’s history against the Mavs isn’t all that great, but only once has he topped 30 minutes. He does, however, have two games that really stand out, and I think he is certainly capable of posting similar numbers tonight. In looking at the rebounding differential, DEN is ranked 2nd in the NBA while DAL is dead-last.
Bismack Biyombo (ORL vs MIN)
The Biz went bananas against the Wizards on Friday (as I mentioned in this same space, thank you thank you), falling just shy of notching a career-high number of fantasy points… What I did not expect was for him to score 21 (real) points. Tonight, he’ll be matched up against Karl-Anthony Towns, who has never been confused for a great defender, so this is a great chance for him to get that burger for the second time in as many games. Howevahhhhh, this is The Biz that we’re talking about… we know he’s not a perennial scorer and most of his fantasy points come on blocks/rebounds. Not to mention, his price has jumped up significantly after last game.
* CASH GAMES
Al Horford (BOS vs NO)
Here we go again with that NEED for bigs against the Pelicans, and you can bet that Horford is atop that list. I’m not thrilled about Horford’s outlook for upside, but for where he’s priced against other guys at the position, it’s still a decent way to get decent production while differentiating your roster construction. It’s a much different situation this time around, but Horford has consistently been in the 32-35 FDP range in his last six meetings against them.
