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POINT GUARDS:
Dejounte Murray (SA @ PHI) – On FanDuel
With Tony Parker inactive, Murray jumps into his usual role as savior of the day. I gave the people a quick Murray synopsis on today’s podcast, so I’ll repeat it again: He’s a versatile player that is very active on the boards, and he also has the ability to get you those bonus points on FanDuel with blocks and steals. Well, PHI has committed the most turnovers in NBA this season. Murray is priced up a lot more on DraftKings, so I don’t feel like he is as much of a necessity over there.
Russell Westbrook (OKC @ LAL)
It’s tough to deny Westbrook right now with the run he’s on – the last time he posted fewer than 57 FDP was December 16th, a game that was played on the back-end of a B2B. OKC is starting to figure things out with their trio of stars and there’s always added incentive to playing Westbrook when he comes to Los Angeles, his hometown.
Jamal Murray (DEN vs PHX)
PHX has been torn apart at the limbs by all positions this season, PG being one of the biggest contributors to that mutilation. Murray is no longer this guy with a 30-point ceiling, he’s added in some 40s and 50s, including one of each in the last two games. Will Barton is listed as questionable for tonight’s game with an illness, so that would be some good news that could positively affect Murray… but not hurt him in any way.
Kyrie Irving (BOS vs CLE)
I think I heard something about a narrative in tonight’s game, but Kyrie should have plenty of motivation to do well against his former Cleveland mates.
Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN vs MIN)
Now that Caris LeVert has officially been ruled inactive, I am very interested in Dinwiddie’s services this evening. The Nets only other option at PG tonight is Nik Stauskas, who I like, but he’s not a true option at that position. Also, you’ll see that MIN is a negative aDvP matchup for PGs this season – pay that no mind, as Tyus Jones makes that a faux stat.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
Donovan Mitchell (UTA vs NO)
NO is the 2nd-best aDvP matchup for SGs this season – Mitchell has looked great over the last four games and he dropped 53.5 DKP/48.8 FDP on NO back on December 1st.
Gary Harris (DEN vs PHX)
Mentioned earlier that Barton is listed as questionable, but Harris is the main beneficiary here. SGs vs PHX is the 2nd-best aDvP matchup in all of the NBA. Even if Barton ends up playing, I think Harris is a fine choice.
JJ Redick (PHI vs SA)
SA has been a decent matchup for SGs over the last two seasons, but things get significantly easier with Danny Green inactive. Redick will see a decent boost in shot attempts if Joel Embiid is inactive but I still like this move in whichever opportunity presents itself.
SMALL FORWARDS:
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL vs IND)
This was a heavy point of emphasis on today’s podcast, but Keith and I are both quite fond of the one they call The Greek. IND doesn’t have many players that can match up him with one-on-one, the only option is really Lance Stephenson… and unless he’s blowing in Greek’s ear for 48 minutes, then I’m going to attack! attack! attack! Greek has not hit 5x value (at current FD price) in each of the last five games, but four of those were tough matchups.
LeBron James (CLE @ BOS)
The King goes back to the scene of last year’s crime, and this time he’s got more motivation to stick it to his old teammate. The Cavs are on the back-end of a B2B, so that’s why I don’t have him rated over The Greek, but I’m not totally dismissing him.
Kyle Anderson (SA @ PHI)
One way or the other, Anderson is going to play big minutes and have a great matchup. Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Rudy Gay are all out for the Spurs… the only true threats to Anderson’s value. Also, PHI is a great aDvP matchups for both SGs and SFs. the two spots that he’ll playing all night.
Paul George (OKC @ LAL)
SFs vs LAL is the best (statistically = aDvP) matchup in the NBA at the current moment – I guess it helps George’s outlook that he’s from LA and would like to become a member of the Lakers at some point, but that aDvP number is certainly the sweet spot. PG13 has been on a nice roll here since OKC has picked it up in the wins-column (no surprise) and I expect them to keep it going tonight.
Gerald Green (HOU @ ORL)
With Harden out for two weeks, Green has a great chance to prove his worth to the Rockets. He played 11 minutes on the same day he was signed off the street, and then followed that up with 27 and 21 minutes of court time.
POWER FORWARDS:
Trey Lyles (DEN vs PHX)
PHX has been a great aDvP matchup for PFs this season, and they’re coming into the high altitude of Denver on the back-end of a B2B – I know that we DON’T PREDICT BLOWOUTS, but this situation really bodes well for Lyles, who comes off the bench.
Serge Ibaka (TOR @ CHI)
CHI has been so tough against opposing centers, that it’s the PFs usually getting the glory down low…. hey nowwwww. In fact, CHI is the best aDvP matchup for PFs in the NBA this season. Aside from a rough outing against his former OKC mates, Ibaka has been a regular 5x value participant in most games since the beginning of December.
* GPP
Ryan Anderson (HOU @ ORL)
I love picking on Aaron Gordons’ defense and this spot is exactly where we like Ryno – on the road, with an opponent’s color scheme that isn’t red. Yeah, you heard that right… the dude is color-blind, and he usually can’t shoot as well in those scenarios. With Harden inactive it’s possible that Ryno sees an uptick in shot attempts and he’s had a few games recently with eight or more rebounds… ORL is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. As you can see, that number has been quite vital to his success.
* SITUATIONAL
LaMarcus Aldridge / David Bertans (SA @ PHI)
Without Kawhi in the lineup, LMA becomes a much more appealing option. However, as we discussed on today’s podcast, it’s possible that some of the Spurs’ regulars see slightly-fewer minutes… and that’s where Bertans comes into the picture. I do think he’s safe in any regard tonight (because I believe that Pau Gasol sees fewer minutes), but any indication of LMA resting would make Bertans an all-in option.
CENTERS:
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN @ BKN)
He’s coming home, coming home, tell the world heeeee’s coming home – Well, kinda, sorta. KAT is from nearby New Jersey but some of us here still claim them as our own. Regardless of all that shit, BKN is the best aDvP matchup in the NBA for centers… by a mile.
Nikola Jokic (DEN vs PHX)
I mentioned on today’s podcast how great of a position that Jokic is in tonight – DEN is the #1 rebounding team in the NBA, but there is a huge differentiation in the type of rebounding… DEN is #2 in offensive rebounding while PHX is the 4th-worst in defensive rebounding and they’ll be missing their best rebounder in Tyson Chandler. Not only that, but earlier this season a tired Nets team came into Denver on the back-end of a B2B and Jokic hammered them for 41 points and 12 rebounds. Jokic has played at least 36 minutes in five of the last six games and tonight’s outlook seems appealing in every aspect.
Clint Capela (HOU @ ORL)
Let’s go back to the rebounding numbers, as ORL ranks dead-last in the NBA while HOU is 6th. Capela has had some health issues of late, but it seems like he’s good to go here. Both teams are in the top-10 for pace this season, so there should be plenty of extra opportunities for Capela to clean up.
