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POINT GUARDS:
Rajon Rondo (NO @ MEM)
Anthony Davis is doubtful for tonight’s game, and now we can finally go back to Rondo with 100% confidence that he’ll hit value. AD’s absence allows Rondo to have his hands on the ball more and even grab some extra rebounds as well.
Kris Dunn (CHI @ NYK)
Dunn has performed well in six of the last eight games, the only two blemishes coming in a blowout and tough matchup. He has already posted two nice games against the Knicks this season and been one of the more consistent players in the league as time has gone along.
* PING-PONG
Ish Smith (DET @ BKN)
BKN: 2nd-best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (3rd-best this season) – The Nets have a ton of injuries to their backcourt, so expect Ish to get little resistance in this matchup. He’s much cheaper on DraftKings tonight, so that is the preferred site to have him on.
Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN vs DET)
The Nets’ backcourt has been decimated by injuries over the last few games, so Dinwiddie will have to shoulder a ton of minutes once again. I’m not a fan of Dinwiddie’s price jumping up so much, but the opportunity to do well is certainly there.
– – – – – – – – – –
Dennis Schroder (ATL @ DEN)
DEN: 4th-best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (6th-best this season) – Schroder has averaged 43.5 DKP/42.8 FDP in his last three meetings vs DEN. ATL is 4-1 in their last five games vs DEN, covering all five.
Jamal Murray (DEN vs ATL)
ATL: 5th-best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (7th-best this season) – Murray has posted at least 33 DKP/32 FDP in 10 of the last 14 games.
* CAUTION
Goran Dragic (MIA @ IND)
MIA is on the back-end of a B2B after playing in Toronto last night. That in itself is unappealing, but if I were on the Pacers coaching staff, I would make sure I glued Oladipo to Dragic for the entirety of this game. No thanks.
Dennis Smith Jr (DAL @ CHA)
There’s a lot of talk about DSJ in a homecoming game in North Carolina, but let’s take a look at what NBA Sleep Specialist has to say about this game for the Mavs tonight (below) – On an 11-game slate, there’s no need to force him in.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
Victor Oladipo (IND vs MIA)
The last time Oladipo faced a tired team (Saturday vs CHI) on the back-end of a B2B, he had five steals in 23 minutes… and that was his first game back after missing the previous four. He seems to be fully healthy again and this matchup vs MIA is a favorable one.
Lou Williams (LAC @ GS)
Sweet Lou will have a lot of heavy lifting to do once again with Blake Griffin, Austin Rivers and Milos Teodosic all inactive. A lot of people have an issue with Sweet Lou if he’s starting, but I do not subscribe to that news service. He played 41 minutes last game… what’s not to like about that?
Jrue Holiday (NO @ MEM)
Holiday will get a nice bump in usage tonight without AD in the lineup, and I’m not sure most people will go this route. The SG position is loaded with talent and going against the Grizzlies doesn’t sound all that appealing. Don’t forget, this isn’t the same defensive powerhouse we’ve seen over the last few seasons.
* GPP
Caris LeVert (BKN vs DET)
LeVert only played 26 minutes on Monday, his first game back since missing the previous two with a groin injury. The Nets lineup has been decimated by injuries, and I expect those 26 minutes to be elevated without a doubt. It was stated that LeVert was at 100% before Monday’s game, so just assume the Nets were being cautious with their young star.
Jeremy Lamb (CHA vs DAL)
You saw the graphic about DAL having a huge disadvantage in tonight’s game, and we’ve had success going with low-owned bench players in this scenario before. Lamb has been playing about 25 minutes per game recently, and he’s posted 30+ fantasy points in two of the last three games.
* MATCHUP-BASED
Courtney Lee (NYK vs CHI)
– CHI: Best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate (2nd-best this season)
Patrick McCaw / Nick Young (GS vs LAC)
– LAC: 3rd-best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate (4th-best this season) – The outlook for both guys got a lot more intriguing with Klay Thompson inactive.
Justin Holiday (CHI @ NYK)
– NYK: 5th-best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate (5th-best this season) – I keep waiting on Holiday to have that massive performance against his former team. Will tonight be the night?
SMALL FORWARDS:
Kevin Durant (GS vs LAC)
No Stephen Curry… No Klay Thompson… No overthinking it.
Joe Harris (BKN vs DET)
I have a feeling that Harris will start at SG tonight, and that might worry some people since he could go against Avery Bradley, whose defensive numbers haven’t been all that great this season. The main appeal here is that you’ll get Harris at a huge discount while he plays about 35 minutes.
Josh Richardson (MIA @ IND)
I really don’t like many Heat players tonight, but J-Rich is one of two guys I’ll make the exception for. He’ll likely get matched up against Bojan Bogdanovic, a human turnstile, and play nearly 40 minutes.
E’Twaun Moore (NO @ MEM)
Moore was one of the biggest beneficiaries when AD missed some time earlier this season, so I don’t mind going right back to him. It’s no surprise that Moore put up his most points in nearly a month when AD missed a good chunk of last game.
POWER FORWARDS:
Domantas Sabonis (IND vs MIA)
With Myles Turner inactive, you can expect Sabonis to massive chalk this evening. This is a spot where you don’t get cute – Sabonis has been planting his flag in the Pacers rotation over the last few games, and Miami is on the back-end of a B2B after playing a tough game in Toronto last night.
Trey Lyles (DEN vs ATL)
ATL: 4th-best aDvP matchup for PFs on tonight’s slate (5th-best this season) – Lyles continues to play big minutes in all situations… and I know I say this ALL THE TIME, but he always hovers right around that 5x value mark.
Kelly Olynyk (MIA @ IND)
IND: 2nd-best aDvP matchup for PFs on tonight’s slate (3rd-best this season) – Whaaaaaaaaaat? How could you possibly go back to Olynyk after pulling a massive choke job last night? Well, dat variance is a real sonbitch. Olynyk only played 22 minutes last night, so I feel like the Heat coaching staff knew what they were doing in that game, saving him for tonight.
Quincy Acy (BKN vs DET)
The Nets are in the same desperate situation for bodies they were in the other night, and Acy played 33 minutes between both forward spots. This matchup vs DET is much better and the cost is still right there near minimum-price.
Frank Kaminsky (CHA vs DAL)
DAL: 7th-best aDvP matchup for PFs on tonight’s slate (9th-best this season) – Kaminsky will likely see some time at the center position as well, but DAL is absolutely brutal everywhere down low. Below, in the Dwight Howard blurb, you’ll see exactly how brutal they are at rebounding the basketball. This is the secret guy on the pod that me and Keith did not want to give away for free.
CENTERS:
Nikola Jokic (DEN vs ATL)
In my channel today I posted this graphic (below) and it speaks volumes for how great of an outlook Jokic has today. In case you don’t see it, DEN has the 2nd-best rebounding rate in the NBA while ATL is tied for 3rd-worst. Not only that, but DEN also has the 2nd-best offensive rebounding rate in the NBA while is dead-last in defensive rebounding rate. This is just an added bonus, because Jokic will have no problem scoring the basketball either.
Dwight Howard (CHA vs DAL)
In the graphic (above) you’ll see that Howard has a juicy matchup on the boards tonight. DAL is in one of the worst scheduling snafus of the season, and I can see him having an absolute feast in this one. CHA has had four-straight days off prior to tonight’s game, so look for Howard to fully geared up for this one.
* CASH-GAME ALL-STAR
DeMarcus Cousins (NO @ MEM)
You can certainly make the case for Boogie with AD inactive tonight, but don’t forget that MEM is the 3rd-toughest aDvP matchup for centers this season. I think Cousins will have no problem putting up enough points to hit value tonight, I just love Jokic in GPPs at a much better discount.
* MATCHUP-BASED
Andre Drummond (DET @ BKN)
– BKN: Best aDvP matchup for centers this season
Marc Gasol (MEM vs NO)
– NO: 2nd-best aDvP matchup for centers this season
