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POINT GUARDS:
Russell Westbrook (OKC vs BKN)
BKN is the best aDvP matchup for point guards this season – With news that circulated throughout the day, we’ll have plenty cap room to fit the most expensive player on the slate. Westbrook generally doesn’t like getting showed up, so he’ll certainly be looking to avenge a loss earlier this season to the Nets. Prior to that last meeting, Westbrook had three-straight triple-doubles against the Nets.
* SITUATIONAL
Dejounte Murray (SA vs CLE)
Tony Parker apparently has thrown up the white flag, and seemingly moved aside to let Murray take over the starting point guard role. If Parker sits out tonight, I’ll have a lot more interest in Murray since that’s just one less threat to take minutes away… if Parker is in, I feel like this could be the fade of the night. We know how much of a roadblock Gregg Popovich can be to our fantasy success, so there’s no need to risk this if Parker plays.
De’Aaron Fox (SAC @ ORL)
George Hill is listed as questionable for tonight’s game… if he sits, I’ll have a lot more interest in Fox. The Kings have a few other guys that can slide in to run point on the second unit, but Fox would be the only true point guard on the roster and he’s quite affordable as well.
* GPP
Stephen Curry (GS vs NYK)
As you can see below, Curry has been so hit-or-miss against the Knicks in the last 10 meetings. I think Westbrook is (by far) a better option in all formats, but Curry is definitely an appealing option to pivot off WB.
Elfrid Payton (ORL vs SA)
The ultimate GPP play of them all, Elf actually has a fantastic matchup in-tow as he goes against De’Aaron Fox (5th-worst DRPM rating in the NBA out of 477 players). We know the type of volatile player Elf is, but it seems like he’s in a good groove of late posting at least 34 fantasy points (on both sites) in three of the last four games.
Frank Ntilikina (NYK @ GS)
The NBA coach in me (scary thought) thinks Ntilly Ntilly is better suited to deal with the Warriors offensive onslaught than Jarrett Jack. After all, Ntilly Ntilly is a much better defender and there’s a good chance this game gets out of hand not too long after tip, and that could get him some extra minutes at the min-price.
* CAUTION
Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN @ OKC)
For whatever reason, Dinwiddie just does not get any love from the referees. Call me a Nets homer, call me whatever you want… I watch this team more than any civil-minded human being should, it’s a fact that Dinwiddie gets no love from the refs. I mention this because the last time these two teams faced off, Dinwiddie was in foul trouble moments after the opening tip, and that limited him to only 19 minutes. After all, he is going up against Westbrook, and that’s a near-impossible task for about 99.9% of the NBA. There’s a fair amount of talent at the point guard position this evening… add in the fact that D’Angelo Russell’s return has chipped away at some of Dinwiddie’s minutes, and I don’t see the need to take a risk here.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Klay Thompson (GS vs NYK)
The Warriors opened as massive 14.5-point favorites, and that’s a pretty good indication an ass-kicking is coming the Knicks way. When the defending-champs do a number on their opponents, Klay will generally get some extra run with the second unit and jack up a ton of extra shots in the process.
Tim Hardaway Jr (NYK @ GS)
With Kristaps Porzingis inactive, THJ usually sees an uptick in usage that jumps to 29.4%. This up-tempo game is the type of setting THJ was made for, and I don’t see him faltering in any scenario. Some people may worry that Michael Beasley could swallow up a ton of usage, but the Warriors run the NBA’s 3rd-fastest pace and that should give the Knicks plenty of possessions to keep both of them happy. If I throw my NBA coach hat on again, it would be a smart move to stagger their rotations and have one of them on the court at all times.
Evan Fournier (ORL vs SAC)
Fournier has least 29 fantasy points (on both sites) in four of the last five games. He’ll be taking on a Kings team that is on the back-end of a B2B and just a few digits shy of being a favorable aDvP matchup.
Courtney Lee (NYK @ GS)
Supply and demand, my friends… The Knicks need healthy/versatile bodies for this matchup against the Warriors and Lee is capable of playing 40 minutes if this game stays relatively close.
* GPP
Andre Roberson (OKC vs BKN)
Roberson will never be an appealing name to roster each night, but his production at been right there in the last five games… keep in mind, he did miss eight games in the midst of that stretch. BKN’s pace, and sometimes aloof demeanor, will help Roberson do what he does best – play defense.
Caris LeVert (BKN @ OKC)
I talked about Spencer Dinwiddie being at a huge risk to get in foul trouble, so guess who would benefit from that? ^ ^ ^ This guy! The last time these two teams faced off, that exact same scenario played out and LeVert ended up having the best performance of his NBA career. LeVert hasn’t been affected that much with the return of D’Angelo Russell, so I think this play really has some nice upside here.
* MULTI-ENTRY
Danny Green (SA vs CLE)
We talked about it on today’s pod, but Green has posted nice games against LeBron-led teams. Hey, there’s no Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay, Pau Gasol and possibly no Tony Parker… there’s room for upside here.
SMALL FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
LeBron James (CLE @ SA)
There has been a lot of talk about fading LeBron today, and I love it! He doesn’t have the greatest history against the Spurs, but most of that was dealing with Kawhi Leonard… he gone! Perhaps the most solace I find in LeBron comes to us from our friends in Vegas, who dubbed the Cavs as a +2 underdog when the line opened… since then, the tides have turned and the Cavs are now 2.5-point favorites with the total rising five points as well! If that doesn’t tell the story, I don’t know what will.
Michael Beasley (NYK @ GS)
Yes, he will be the utmost chalk, but we have seen the massive upside Beasley has when Kristaps Porzingis is out of the lineup. I’m not worried about the possibility of matching up with Draymond Green because: 1) his price is low enough that the offensive/rebounding volume makes reaching value a mere formality, and 2) if Kanter does end up playing big minutes, Dray could be matched up with him.
Kyle Anderson (SA vs CLE)
Anderson has been fantastic over the last few games, including totals of 32.8 DKP/35.7 FDP and 40 DKP/45.1 FDP in each of the last two… most of that boosted by seven blocks and six steals. If you take away those extra “bonus” points those scores don’t look nearly as appealing, but the Spurs are missing so many players that Anderson’s role is worth every penny of his price.
* CASH-GAMES
Kevin Durant (GS vs NYK)
This may seem like a dull breakdown, but who the hell do the Knicks have that can even contain KD? Think about it, and get back to me…
POWER FORWARDS:
LaMarcus Aldridge / Davis Bertans (SA vs CLE)
Both guys will benefit largely from the absence of Pau Gasol. Enough said…
Draymond Green (GS vs NYK)
Dray is going to have a lot of responsibility of the defensive end tonight dealing with multiple Knicks. This should keep him on the floor long enough to get an outrageous number of blocks and steals against a Knicks team that will definitely be lackadaisical since they’re missing some key players and are nearing the end of their west coast trip.
Carmelo Anthony (OKC vs BKN)
At least 36 FDP/37 DKP in each of the last three games, including 48.5 FDP/51 DKP on Saturday vs CLE.
* GPP
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (BKN @ OKC)
RHJ’s price is coming back up near that $7K level, and that kinda sucks. However, he does have peculiar upside in this matchup since we know Westbrook loves to turn the ball over at an alarming rate and RHJ has been known to be quite active on the defensive end. Also, he’ll draw Melo for at least half, if not all, of the night… you know how much I love that matchup.
Aaron Gordon (ORL vs SAC)
The Magic take on a Kings team that is on the back-end of a B2B, and AG00 can certainly make a huge impact on the glass. If Z-Bo plays, he has struggled in the past against some of these versatile power forwards, so that’s where AG00 can truly find himself at that massive ceiling.
* SITUATIONAL
Skal Labissiere / Zach Randolph (SAC @ ORL)
We’ll get word soon on who is actually playing for the Kings tonight. Stay tuned and we’ll talk about this in the Slack chat.
CENTERS:
* CASH
Steven Adams (OKC vs BKN)
BKN is the best aDvP matchup for centers this season – While I’m not thrilled about the dynamic pricing on Adams, I think it’s a safe bet to expect 30-35 fantasy points from him on both sites. Adams rarely has massive upside, as evidenced by his 44.3 DKP/44.1 FDP ceiling this season, but he’s not to blame… he is surrounded by a very talented supporting cast.
* GPP
Willy Hernangomez (NYK @ GS)
I am very interested in Hernangomez taking over the Kyle O’Quinn role this evening. Enes Kanter is horrendous on defense, but his stinky aura is usually masked by the lengthy presence of Kristaps Porzingis. I feel like Kanter will be exposed, taken out of the game and subsequently be replaced by the more youthful and energetic Hernangomez who is eager to see the floor once again. Now, we do need clarification on Hernangomez’s role tonight, but I’m sure we’ll get that soon.
Julius Randle (LAL vs BOS)
I love Randle’s upside, but there’s never a clear indication of what his role will be. I was hopinh that last game was the changing of the guard in LA, and I do think we’ll at least see him get a chance to prove himself once again.
* CAUTION
Enes Kanter (NYK @ GS)
We’ve all been wondering how this is going to work with Kanter tonight, and there’s a few layers to break down here. For one, sure, the Knicks NEED him out on the court with Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle O’Quinn both inactive. The last two times Kanter faced the Warriors (as a member of OKC), he posted 35.3 DKP/34.3 FDP and 29 DKP/27 FDP… this is probably the area where most people expect him to be tonight – On the other hand, nearly every coach Kanter has played for showed a quick hook with him in up-tempo games… Those two totals I just mentioned in the “good news” scenario, are surrounded by single-digit performance landmines all over the joint. All in all, if Kanter is getting a massive increase in ownership% to have his usual stat line, there’s no need to follow the herd.
