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POINT GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Kris Dunn (CHI @ DAL)
DAL is the best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (3rd-best this season) – Dunn has been fairly consistent for a while now, don’t worry too much about that last game against the Raptors who are one of the worst aDvP matchups for PGs.
Ish Smith (DET @ PHI)
Revenge!!! He’s going home, going home… tell the world heeeeee’s going home. Ish used to be a member of the Sixers for a while and now he gets to head back there as the starting point guard. One thing I always love about facing the Sixers is the opportunity for steals, as they lead the NBA in turnovers per game.
Dennis Smith Jr / JJ Barea (DAL vs CHI)
CHI is the 6th-best aDvP matchup on this slate for PGs – I mentioned Dunn earlier, but DSJ rounds this out as a fantastic matchup of up-and-coming PGs in the league. DSJ had an injury not too long ago and struggled to produce upon his return, but things have changed drastically over the last three games. Barea is also in the discussion, exceeding/reaching 5x value (at current FD price) in five of the last six games.
* GPP
Damian Lillard (POR vs ATL)
Great matchup vs Dennis Schroder (2nd-worst DRPM player in the entire NBA) tonight at home on a Friday night. The second game back from injury has seemed to be a magical occurrence for a few players recently, and I’d be willing to see if that trend continues tonight.
Kyrie Irving (BOS vs MIN)
His price dropped from $9000 to $8400 on FD and I think he’s more than capable of hitting value in this spot. We talked about it on today’s podcast, Butler could possibly match up with Kyrie for certain parts of this game – that’s not all that appealing, and why I’m saving him for GPPs only.
Goran Dragic (MIA vs NYK)
Two-straight games of at least 46 FDP and he’s all over the FD portion on the initial upload of the Domination Station. There aren’t many favorable aDvP matchups for PGs nowadays, but NYK is one of the better ones in the league and the 7th-best on this slate.
Tony Parker / Patty Mills (SA vs PHX)
Very risky, but we all know backcourt players are always a great idea to use when going up against PHX. Parker and Mills are incredibly cheap with the great matchup… the ONLY reasons they have been mentioned in this space.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Tyreke Evans (MEM vs WSH)
Tyreezy has been solid over the last few games, exceeding/reaching value in each of the last seven games, and his price has actually been reduced in advance of this matchup vs WSH.
Devin Booker (PHX @ SA)
With Danny Green inactive for the Spurs, Booker will have less resistance to a bigger night. Now, let’s make sure we accentuate “LESS” here because this is still a matchup against one of the stingier teams in league history. There is a situation that I’m keeping my eye on as well – TJ Warren is listed as questionable for this game, so I guess it’s possible that Kawhi could be matched up with Booker in that scenario. I hope not, but I think the volume of shot attempts Booker will hoist up in Warren’s absence is appealing enough.
Wesley Matthews (DAL vs CHI)
Woof! As Keith mentioned on today’s podcast, when you start off the SG discussion (like we did on the pod) you’re in a for a true soul-searching experience. I’ll never be worried about Matthews’ minutes, after all, he typically plays minutes in the upper-30s. What I am worried about his Matthews’ production- there have been plenty of games in which he didn’t reach 20 FDP. All in all, everything should be fine, as CHI is the 3rd-best aDvP matchup for SGs this season.
SMALL FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL vs TOR)
We have been talking about OG Anunoby and his impressive defense most of this season, but there have been a few cracks in the sidewalk of late… guys like Greek (last week) and Paul George have both had their share of success. Tonight’s matchup is a little different being at home for The Greek and his $11,000 price tag on FD is much cheaper than we’ve seen him in a while.
Courtney Lee (NYK @ MIA)
Lee spends most of his time at the SG position nowadays, a favorable aDvP matchup for that position this season. His price is still affordable, and that’s saying a lot for a guy that plays minutes in the upper-30s on a regular basis.
Evan Turner (POR vs ATL)
Turner has stepped up over the last three games and now seems to be getting regular minutes in the 30s. ATL is a favorable matchup for SFs and Turner should easily keep this rolling.
* CASH
Harrison Barnes (DAL vs CHI)
Barnes will spend most of his time between both forward spots, each of which are a favorable matchup vs CHI. It’s been tough sledding of late for Barnes, but this matchup has produced profitable returns all season long.
* GPP
Brandon Ingram (LAL vs CHA)
Ingram’s numbers have taken a massive hit since getting hurt, but they have also been without Lonzo Ball in the lineup… he is listed as probable for tonight’s game, and him just being in the lineup is a huge boost for everyone around him. CHA is actually the 5th-best aDvP matchup for SFs this season.
Robert Covington (PHI vs DET)
RoCo has been dealing with a finger injury of late, and that could be why his offensive numbers have been abysmal lately. The hope here is that he can figure it out for one night, as his $6000 price tag on FanDuel is reminiscent of a few years ago.
Kyle Anderson (SA vs PHX)
Anderson will likely start at SG for the Spurs tonight, a fantastic matchup for anyone in that position vs PHX. He’ll be one of the lower options on the offensive pecking order, but there should still be enough touches to go around for everyone.
POWER FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Derrick Favors (UTA @ DEN)
No, it’s not particularly a great matchup vs DEN, but Favors is the most capable big that UTA has and he’ll be needed a great deal on the court tonight. Favors has done well in this matchup before, the last two of the games shown below were without Rudy Gobert in the lineup.
Al-Farouq Aminu (POR vs ATL)
I’m a huge fan of Aminu tonight, who will likely be matched up with Ersan Ilyasova. This is important because Aminu’s main trait (his defense) can certainly come to the forefront in this matchup… Ilyasova is a guy who will force a lot of different maneuvers to the basket, and this could lead to more blocks and steals than usual. On the flip side, if this is one of those nights that Aminu turns it up offensively, we could be in for a yuuuuge ROI.
* CASH
LaMarcus Aldridge (SA vs PHX)
PHX is the 3rd-best aDvP matchup for PFs this season… I know that LMA isn’t all that appealing with Kawhi back in the lineup, but this matchup might be too good to pass up.
Trey Lyles (DEN vs UTA)
Not a fan of the matchup, but I do love that Lyles has an assured role in this Nuggets rotation… something that isn’t always easy to come by. Lyles hasn’t showed a tremendous amount of upside, yet he’s always hovering right around that 5x value mark. Don’t forget, Lyles spent his first two years as a member of the Jazz.
* GPP
Tobias Harris (DET @ PHI)
I’m going to like his outlook a lot more if Andre Drummond is ruled out for tonight’s game… that will certainly open up more offensive opportunities. Harris has just missed value at his current FD price in three-straight games, and that same price has lowered because of it.
Frank Kaminsky (CHA @ LAL)
Woof! It was a rough one last game for Frank the Tank, but that was a huge blowout win at Sacramento and he was acting as more of a facilitator. Tonight’s game should be much more competitive and that’s when Frank the Tank comes to play.
CENTERS:
* ALL FORMATS
Joel Embiid (PHI vs DET)
DET is the best aDvP matchup on tonight’s slate for centers – Embiid should be pretty safe in any of tonight’s potential scenarios, and there are a few…. 1) Andre Drummond is listed as questionable – even if he does play, Embiid has dominated him plenty of times before. 2) Boban Marjanovic draws another start (much to my chagrin) and gets abused by Embiid out on the perimeter. 3) The Pistons go a totally different route, and Embiid abuses them high, low and everywhere in between.
Jusuf Nurkic (POR vs ATL)
ATL is an eyelash away from being a favorable aDvP matchup for centers this season – Nurkic has played very well of late and there’s no one on this Hawks roster that matches up all that well with him. Nurkic has posted at least 35 FDP in four-straight games, including at least 41 FDP in three of those four.
* GPP
Jonas Valanciunas / Jakob Poeltl (TOR @ MIL)
MIL has been brutal down low for quite some time. Admittedly, this is a very shaky situation with minutes at the center position for the Raptors, but the matchup certainly demands our attention.
Aaron Baynes (BOS vs MIN)
MIN is the 2nd-best aDvP matchup on tonight’s slate for centers – The absence of Marcus Morris should comfortably put Baynes in the 22-24-minute range this evening, and I like his chances to possibly get some more block attempts against Karl-Anthony Towns.
