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POINT GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Chris Paul (HOU @ PHX)
PHX: 4th-best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (6th-best this season) – HOU put up 142 on PHX earlier this season, albeit with James Harden in the lineup, but this is still a terrible defense that is tied for second-worst in the league. Don’t overthink it, because a lot of other people won’t.
Jamal Murray (DEN vs MEM)
Gary Harris is inactive for the Nuggets, and Murray is one of the biggest beneficiaries, sporting a team-high 27.1% usage rate with all of tonight’s DEN inactives off the court. MEM has historically been a team that we don’t want to tangle with, but PGs have been a slightly better-than-average aDvP matchup this season.
Rajon Rondo (NO vs POR)
I’m only big on Rondo if Anthony Davis is inactive tonight… we have talked about this to the point of nauseum, but AD’s absence allows him to accumulate more stats. Rondo has posted at least 38 DKP/35 FDP in four-straight meetings vs POR, and we saw this EXACT situation back on December 2nd – he posted 38.5 DKP/36.2 FDP in only 28 minutes.
* CASH
John Wall (WSH vs ORL)
ORL: Best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (2nd-best this season) – The Wizards get a pace-up tempo and ORL is brutal at every position on the defensive end. We talked about this on the pod, but it’s worth fading Wall in GPPs since so many other Wizards players can get it on the action.
Kemba Walker (CHA vs UTA)
UTA: 2nd-best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (4th-best this season) – Things have been very wacky this season and it’s a weird thought to pick on UTA, but the absence of Rudy Gobert makes them a much worse defensive unit. Kemba has typically done better at home over the course of his career and has posted around 40 fantasy points in five-straight games, even reaching 60 in Wednesday’s game vs DAL… another favorable aDvP matchup.
Dennis Schroder (ATL vs BKN)
BKN: 3rd-best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (5th-best this season) – I’m never a huge fan of Schroder’s upside, but he does consistently notch a little more than 30 fantasy points per game.
* GPP
Damian Lillard (POR @ NO)
It’s only Lillard’s second game back from a lingering calf injury, but he says he’s fully ready to go for this one. Lillard does have 50 fantasy points in three of his last six meetings vs NO.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Victor Oladipo (IND vs CLE)
Two of Oladipo’s last three games have been against teams on the back-end of a B2B – 1/6 vs CHI: 54.5 DKP-57.7 FDP, 1/10 vs MIA: 44.8 DKP-45.4 FD. CLE returns back to the states today after an embarrassing loss in Toronto last night… I expect a much better effort from them, and that should allow Oladipo to play a full complement of minutes against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
Eric Gordon (HOU @ PHX)
PHX: Best aDvP matchup for SGs this season – He’ll get matched up with either Devin Booker or Tyler Ulis for most of the night, both of whom are among the worst defenders in the NBA.
Kent Bazemore (ATL vs BKN)
Both Marco Belinelli and DeAndre Bembry are inactive for the Hawks tonight, and that should definitively put Bazemore over the 30-minute mark. This will be a pace-up tempo for ATL with a great matchup to boot.
Will Barton (DEN vs MEM)
Gary Harris is inactive for the Nuggets tonight, that situation isn’t built into Barton’s price tag. I don’t expect Barton to start this game, but he’ll still play over 30 minutes with the potential for a massive uptick in production.
CJ McCollum (POR @ NO)
NO: 2nd-best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate (3rd-best this season) – McCollum has posted at least 40 FDP in six of the last eight games. Keep in mind, though, most of that was without Lillard in the lineup. Regardless, the matchup is one of the best on the board.
Jrue Holiday (NO vs POR)
While it hasn’t necessarily been a great matchup for SGs this season, Holiday would certainly benefit from the absence of Anthony Davis. Holiday has consistently played minutes in the upper-30s all season, but the production is what we’re really after here.
* CAUTION
Devin Booker (PHX vs HOU)
Booker has never reached 50 fantasy points (on either site) or shot better than 50% vs HOU once in his career. To make matters worse, he’ll likely have Chris Paul attached to his hip all night.
SMALL FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Kevin Durant (GS @ MIL)
Assuming he’s not on a minutes-restriction, KD will benefit greatly from not having Stephen Curry in the lineup. Without Curry on the floor, KD’s usage rate spikes slightly to 33.9%.
LeBron James (CLE @ IND)
I’m a huge fan of Angry LeBron, and I don’t think the Pacers have many players that can even contain him. Sure, the Cavs are on the back-end of a B2B coming back from Toronto, but that game was over before it even started… no Cavs should be tired, because they didn’t do shit! The big caveat to LeBron is that he won’t have Isaiah Thomas on the court alongside of him… it seems like LeBron gets some of his production taken away in that scenario.
Jimmy Butler (MIN vs NYK)
The T-Wolves have been rolling lately, and Butler is a huge reason for that. I’m not a huge fan of Butler’s price tag rising to this level, but this matchup against the Knicks is one that should give him little-to-no resistance at all.
Otto Porter (WSH vs ORL)
ORL: Best aDvP matchup for SFs on tonight’s slate (3rd-best this season) – We always talks about loving Porter in these up-tempo situations, and that’s exactly what he has tonight as ORL runs the league’s 6th-fastest pace. Porter will draw the matchup with Jonathan Simmons, who has surprisingly been one of the NBA’s worst defenders this season.
TJ Warren (PHX vs HOU)
We talked about Devin Booker getting the Chris Paul treatment this evening, so if that’s the case then I expect Warren to benefit the most. Warren actually plays much better with Booker in the lineup because of floor-spacing and whatnot… he’s a better Robin, he ain’t Batman!
Gerald Green (HOU @ PHX)
Quite simple, but Green benefits greatly from these up-tempo settings. Green’s price on FD actually came down (for whatever reason) to $4800 for this great matchup and he’s posted at least 24 FDP in four of the five games since Harden injured his hamstring.
POWER FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Dragan Bender (PHX vs HOU)
Your “free square” of the day on FanDuel at the minimum $3500, Bender will likely see about 35 minutes and easily hit 5x value. This is where Keith and I started to disagree on the podcast about Bender’s outlook.
Yes, he did have his career-high ceiling game last time out (against Keith’s OKC Thunder, which is why I’m sure he’s bitter), but don’t forget that Bender was the fourth-overall pick in the 2016 Draft. The Suns have been looking for opportunities to get him involved in the rotation, and Marquese Chriss has been running away with this competition… well, there’s no Chriss or Josh Jackson tonight so that’s that. Also, this is the Rockets we are talking about here… the Suns need as much versatility as they can find on the court, and that’s the deadly weapon that Bender brings to the table. I think he’ll finish with about 30 fantasy points, and you take that any day of the week at the minimum price, especially when there isn’t a whole lot to be excited about at the position. Mic drop.
Trey Lyles (DEN vs MEM)
Mr. Consistency is here, folks, and he’s actually shown some upside in two of his last four games. MEM has even been a favorable matchup for PFs this season.
Ersan Ilyasova (ATL vs BKN)
ATL is without Marco Belinelli and DeAndre Bembry, so this could create some extra minutes for Ilyasova, whose production has been fairly consistent over the last 10 games.
Domantas Sabonis (IND vs CLE)
Sabonis will go largely overlooked after having his price increased drastically. The Cavs pitiful defense was on full display last night in America AND Canada for everyone to see, and I just don’t think they are capable of stopping such a talented player down low.
Al-Farouq Aminu (POR @ NO)
I mentioned this in the pod (and got agreement from Keith), but Aminu becomes vital to the Blazers’ game plan if Anthony Davis DOES play tonight. We have seen this plenty of times since the two forces combined, but opposing teams NEED their bigs as much as possible to thwart the onslaught attack down low. Aminu is only $5000 on FanDuel, which is pretty absurd, considering how many minutes he’ll be needed if that situation presents itself.
CENTERS:
* ALL FORMATS
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN vs NYK)
I wouldn’t say this is a great matchup for KAT, but he is priced all the way down to $9100 on FanDuel after having decreasing fantasy-point totals in each of the last four games… take advantage while you can. He actually grew up as a huge Knicks fan, living in nearby New Jersey, so that is an interesting narrative to attach to all this. It is also worth noting that KAT has three blocks in each of his last three games vs NYK, and did post a massive 47-point/18-rebound game (80 DKP/79.6 FDP) against them last season.
* GPP
Jusuf Nurkic (POR @ NO)
It’s pretty much the same write-up that I had for Aminu, but replace him with Nurkic in a matchup against DeMarcus Cousins. The only reason Nurkic is a GPP play is that this idiot likes to get himself into unnecessary foul trouble every now and again.
Bismack Biyombo (ORL @ WSH)
WSH: 5th-best aDvP matchup for centers this season – Biyombo is absurdly underpriced on FanDuel at $5500. His minutes have declined in some of these games, but you can attribute that to ORL not being all that competitive lately… and he still hit 5x value in two of those games. A very similar player in Ekpe Udoh just crushed this matchup on Wednesday.
