POINT GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Stephen Curry (GS vs DEN)
At least 47 FDP in the four games since returning from injury, and he hasn’t even played 30 minutes in two of those. Kevin Durant is inactive once again, and Curry’s usage rate climbs from 31.7% to 41.1% in that scenario.
Jamal Murray (DEN @ GS)
Murray has been fantastic for the Nuggets of late, exceeding/reaching value (at current FD price) in nine of the last 13 games. Everyone in this game will benefit from the Warriors’ rapid pace, especially the point guard – Murray dropped 33 DKP/32.7 FDP in only 26 minutes a few weeks ago in Oakland.
De’Aaron Fox (SAC vs SA)
Never a huge fan of going up against the Spurs, but Fox is the only true PG on the Kings’ roster and that is not reflected in his price. The Spurs are also on the back-end of a B2B, playing their 3rd game in 4 days, 4th game in 6, and 5th in 7.
* GPP
Chris Paul (HOU @ CHI)
3rd-best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (7th-best this season) – I love going to CP3 in GPPs tonight, possibly as a pairing with Curry if you can swing it. CHI has been great against centers and Ryan Anderson can’t shoot in red settings (seriously, look it up)… Keith disagreed with me on today’s podcast, but I feel like the Rockets offense will funnel to their backcourt, and that’s obviously good news for CP3.
Juwan Evans (LAC vs ATL)
2nd-best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (6th-best this season) – He’ll only be viable if Milos Teodosic misses tonight’s game, playing around 30 minutes in that scenario. Dennis Schroder is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, so that’s good enough for me.
Delon Wright (TOR @ BKN)
Best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight’s slate (3rd-best this season) – TOR is on the front-end of a B2B and then have to head back home for a meeting with MIA… conventional thinking would have you think the Raptors take that game more seriously than the one tonight. Kyle Lowry is certainly appealing in all formats, but as a Nets fan, I know all too well of our struggles against the Raptors (TOR: won 9 straight vs BKN, 7-2 against the spread in that span). If all goes according to plan, Wright could get a healthy number of minutes… he has played 29 minutes twice over the last four games.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Lou Williams (LAC vs ATL)
With Blake Griffin and Austin Rivers inactive, Sweet Lou will have his hands all over the offense. ATL sucks everywhere on defense and this is one of the big no-brainers of the night.
Klay Thompson (GS vs DEN)
It’s Bobblehead Night, and Klay’s usage rate shoots up just below 30% with KD off the court.
Andrew Wiggins (MIN vs CLE)
It’s a very underrated narrative that I don’t think anyone has ever mentioned, but remember when K-Love got traded to the Cavs? They had the chance to keep their #1 overall pick, and LeBron basically forced the franchise to use Wiggins as a bargaining chip to get K-Love. I’m not inside the head of Wiggins, but that would kinda piss me off… and his numbers vs CLE have mostly reflected that. The most impressive number in this graphic is that he’s never shot below 50% against them.
Buddy Hield (SAC vs SA)
Mentioned in the Fox blurb that I’m not a huge fan of going against the Spurs, but Hield gets a nice boost in minutes when Hill misses time. We just saw this scenario on Saturday night against the Nuggets, where he played 34 minutes.
* SPLIT
Eric Gordon (HOU @ CHI) – FD: GPP / DK: ALL FORMATS
Best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate (2nd-best this season) – I love this spot for Gordon, and I mentioned a lot of the same reasoning in the CP3 blurb. I expect most of the Rockets offense to funnel to their backcourt, and we know E-Gordy will take shots until his arms fall off. I keep E-Gordy in the GPP space on FD because his price has sky-rocketed to $8000.
* MATCHUP-BASED
Avery Bradley (DET @ NO)
2nd-best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate (3rd-best this season)
Kent Bazemore (ATL @ LAC)
4th-best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate (10th-best this season)
Gary Harris / Will Barton (DEN @ GS)
5th-best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate (11th-best this season)
SMALL FORWARDS:
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL @ IND)
At least 48 DKP/50 FDP in four of the last five meetings vs IND, including 54.8 DKP/56.3 FDP a few days ago. There is no one on IND that can defend The Greek on a 1-on-1 basis… no one! I mentioned on today’s pod that we have seen The Greek have two of his best games recently in similar spots (where no one on the opposing team has anyone to match up) – these same Pacers days ago and then vs WSH when they were missing Otto Porter.
Trevor Ariza / Gerald Green (HOU @ CHI)
One again, I expect the Rockets offense to funnel to their backcourt. While this isn’t “technically” their backcourt, I expect both guys to flourish in a great aDvP matchup. Ariza is more likely to find his way into my lineup, considering his price has dropped tremendously and he’s still playing minutes in the mid-30s. Green will be more popular, but this is a night where we need some massive savings in order to fit three upper-tier studs in our lineup.
* MATCHUP-BASED
Kyle Anderson (SA @ SAC)
3rd-best aDvP matchup for SFs on tonight’s slate (9th-best this season)
* CAUTION
LeBron James (CLE @ MIN)
Jimmy Butler (MIN vs CLE)
Yes, I went here. You’ll likely get a lot folks chasing that last ~80-point game from LeBron, and I guess it’s not necessarily chasing, just realize that he’s not taking on the Orlando Magic tonight. You have to remember, that we have seen this matchup plenty of times from Butler’s tenure in Chicago… he was able to hold LeBron to about 50 fantasy points more often than not. I don’t think LeBron is a bad play at all, I would just rather spend up for Giannis where I know significant upside is a real thing
Butler’s main goal tonight will be to contain LeBron, so I don’t think we’ll necessarily see a huge upside game from him either. I think both guys will be heavily-owned since this is such a marquee matchup, and they could both end up cutting each other’s proverbial heads off in the process.
POWER FORWARDS:
* ALL FORMATS
Anthony Davis (NO vs DET)
I’m just gonna leave this here…
Draymond Green (GS vs DEN)
6th-best aDvP matchup for PFs on tonight’s slate (10th-best this season) – I love playing Dray when KD is inactive because it forces him to be more aggressive on the defensive end… you know, that same guy that we loved so much in the pre-KD era that would load up the stat sheet with blocks and steals. Dray has come under some fire recently for already having 11 technical fouls this season, so I look for him to have a huge “everyone shut the hell up” kind of game.
Lauri Markkanen / Bobby Portis (CHI vs HOU)
Nikola Mirotic is listed as “doubtful” for tonight’s game, so both Markkanen and Portis can get used to life without him, which will happen in the near future. HOU is actually a negative aDvP matchup for PFs this season, but I’m not buying it with either guy… they are versatile enough to play different positions. This is more of a volume-based play, as tonight’s current situation without Mirotic is not reflected in their prices.
Montrezl Harrell (LAC vs ATL)
5th-best aDvP matchup on tonight’s slate for PFs (7th-best this season) – Harrell is in line for huge minutes with Blake Griffin inactive, and nothing would make me happier than for him to crush DeAndre Jordan’s Bobblehead Night. Go win me $10, Harrell!
* CASH-GAME ALL-STARS
Trey Lyles (DEN @ GS)
3rd-best aDvP matchup for PFs on tonight’s slate (5th-best this season) – Lyles gets consistent minutes and always hovers around the 5x mark like clockwork.
Domantas Sabonis (IND vs MIL)
Playing solid minutes over the last few games, while both Thad Young and Myles Turner have been wilting away. MIL can’t rebound for shit, so expect Sabonis to put another firm reminder in the mailbox that he should be the one getting the most minutes in this trio.
* CAUTION
Ryan Anderson (HOU @ CHI)
The man can’t shoot in arenas where the main color scheme is red… he’s color-blind. This is not a joke.
CENTERS:
* ALL FORMATS
Kevin Love (CLE @ MIN)
He’s coming home, coming home, tell the world heeeeeeeee’s coming home. Karl-Anthony Towns is terrible on defense, and I expect more of the offense to funnel Love’s way tonight, given all of the different matchups the Cavs will be facing.
* SITUATIONAL
DeAndre Jordan (LAC vs ATL)
Bobblehead Night! The one thing I will say, though, is that I need Milos Teodosic to be active in order for me to go here. We talked about this on the pod today, but DJ is not a guy that can create his own shot… he needs lobs and all sorts of fancy shit catered to him in order to SCORE. Sure, he can grab plenty of rebounds, but those are only worth 1.2/1.25 depending on what site you play on.
* GPP
Myles Turner (IND vs MIL)
I really wish we had some assurance that Turner was going to play his usual allotment of minutes, but he hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in five of the last six games. There are some things that have attributed to these circumstances, mainly bad matchups and blowouts, but this matchup makes it very hard for me to pass up.
Jakob Poeltl (TOR @ BKN)
Jonas Valanciunas has failed to play 20+ minutes in each of the Raptors’ three games in 2018. They do play tomorrow night in Toronto against a team with an imposing center (Hassan Whiteside) – I feel like the Raptors continue on this path and give Poeltl more minutes tonight against the team who is the best aDvP matchup for centers in the NBA.
