Good morning, everybody! You have just jumped into some NHL DFS Value Stacks where we target the better scoring lines, defensive pairings, and value picks for the larger hockey slates of the day. Designed to be a fast read, we aim to get info to you quickly and efficiently. For deeper dives into advanced metrics, you will want to either follow me (@Choppodong) out on Twitter, watch accompanying videos on YouTube, or simply become a VIP and join our exclusive Slack Channels inside the DFS Army. Either way, I can’t wait to engage and talk puck the rest of this 2018 season, so let’s dive in!!!
NHL Goalies and Back to Back Situations
Front end of back to back: WPG, EDM, ARI
Back end of back to back: CBJ, CGY, WAS, CAR
Watch these teams for extensive travel, backup goalies getting the start, and general exhaustion giving your opposing scoring lines a nice boost in opportunity.
Are you new to NHL DFS? See: Strategy Guide for Fanduel and Draftkings
NHL Strategy: Favored Hockey Line Stacks
In DFS NHL we correlate in different ways. Sometimes centers with wingers, sometimes we include a defenseman, and sometimes we cross lines and overlap on power play units. Here are the correlated plays I like most today.
WAS PP1 – Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Carlson are your key components here. You can include Kuzetsnov for exposure to the WAS2 line, but I’m not using Oshie (not enough minutes and running cold). Ovi may be a hat trick waiting to happen, but you will also pay goalie prices for him. Sure, he’s a hat trick waiting to happen on any night, but he is also a bitter pill to swallow when he only gives you 5 SOG like last night. Carolina lines have been a defensive sieve the past 3 games. CAR1 has given up 6 goals against, CAR2 has given up 5, and the D1 pairing has been involved in 7 of those when on the ice. Over the last 3 games, the Hurricane defense is the weakest on tonight’s slate. Add in the recency bias of WAS1 flopping in good matchups lately, and you might get these guys at lower ownership, too.
CBJ1 – DuBois, Panarin, Foligno, Jones are my keys. Jones and Werenski both log a lot of ice time and both serve on the PP1. They shoot the puck and are one of the more active SOG pairings in the league. Werenski is ok, but Jones is hot right now for only $300 more on Fanduel. 22 SOG and 6 assists in his last 5 games have produced point totals of 20, 22, 22, 8, and 11. DuBois/Panarin will draw a VAN1 line that has allowed 4 goals over it’s last three games and proven vulnerable to quality scoring chances. Foligno gives 2 goals in 3 games on 10 shots at a fair price, and gives exposure to the CBJ2 for diversification in cash games.
CHI PP hybrid – Toewes, Schmaltz, Sharp, Oesterlie is not the type of combination you will see from me often. A combo like this will be more friendly on Draftkings with your Utility spot, but is workable on Fanduel if willing to use both center spots on Blackhawks. The last 5 games have been great for Chicago, but the lines have really moved around on the power play units. For me, it requires creativity to get pieces of all the scoring at a fair price. Over the 5 game stretch, Toewes has produced multi-point games in all but the most recent one. Schmaltz has 5 goals over his last 5 games. Sharp has thrown in 3 goals of his own. And, Oesterlie gives access to all 3 of them at a price in the low 4k’s on Fanduel for a smidge of correlation/stacking. Oesterlie has himself chipped in with 2 goals, 4 assists, and 15 shots in his last 6 games, 4 of which yielded double digit Fanduel points. The perfect part of this plan is you get all 3 scoring lines covered with exposure while at even strength, a defenseman logging minutes like mad, and stacked correlation to the PP1. Over the last three games, Toewes and Schmaltz have been on some form of power play unit a bone-crushing 65% of the time….and you have them both! As a little added bonus, the WPG defensive pairing of Trouba and Morrissey (their supposed best) has coughed up 9 goals and 150 shots on goal in their last 3 games. We just found a way to have a skater or three on the ice for every minute that the leaky WPG defensive pairing logs. And, no one else will have this combo giving you a completely unique set up tonight.
There are plenty of other stacking combinations tonight. For more targeted plays, become a VIP today and enter our Slack Forums where the discussion never rides the bench!
DFS NHL Advice: Value Picks
Joel Armia (W WPG3/PP2 – $3500 FD) – Armia has recently seen a promotion of sorts in terms of his minutes logged. What was 12-14 is now 15-19 over his last 5 games. Across that time, he has also produced 21 SOG and 3 points. Over the last 4 weeks, Armia has averaged 11.13 FD points per game and has 3 games in his last 5 with double digit fantasy points. Use him as a one-off or as cheaper exposure to Winnipeg’s PP2.
Jakob Chychrun (D ARI2/PP1 – $3900 FD) – No longer some secret, Chychrun continues to show a hard floor of 8 fantasy points and 22 minutes night after night. Edmonton has been a wreck lately, and Arizona typically plays better at home. Over his last 10 games, Chychrun has logged a combined 49 blocks and shots on goal for a solid Draftkings floor. While we’d like to see more actual production on Fanduel, he is under $4000 and allows you to really spend up for some top line stacks when used as a one-off and “late night hammer” play.
Alexander Edler (D VAN1/PP1 – $4800 FD) – 22, 24, 16, 18, 11, and 21 are not the fantasy scores you would expect from a Canuck defenseman. But, that is exactly what you see with Edler over his last 6 games. There might not be a better value on the slate. We like value multipliers of 2.5 and 3X in NHL DFS, but Edler is delivering 3.5X and even 5X on a rather routine basis. Tons of minutes, tons of blocked shots, and tons of shots on goal are exactly what we are looking for when it comes to cheap defensemen. Add in exposure to the best scoring lines his team can throw out there along with a few assists, and you have a very safe floor perfect for cash games or rounding out some dependable points in your GPPs.
Video Supplement for NHL DFS Value Stacks
For those that like things in video form with screen-sharing capability, tune in below…
DFS NHL Overtime
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