1/11/18 NBA 3 game slate breakdown
Short slate tonight but lots to look at!
Cle/Tor: This game has the highest total projected score of the night by over 10 points at 223. LOTS OF POINTS! For the Cavs everyone knows Lebron James is one the best players of all time. You don’t need me to tell you he’s good at basketball. Something, however, to think about is who will be guarding him. OG Anunoby is quickly being recognized as one of the league’s premier defenders. Last game vs the Heat our boy J Rich put up 6 points against OG. The game prior to that The Greek Freak put up 24 points, 5 assists and 5 rebounds. Mild for a guy of his caliber. Lebron can certainly put up big numbers on any given night, but this defensive matchup gives us something to think about (also note that Paul George put up 33 points vs the Raptors but Anunoby only played 20 minutes that game). As for the rest of the Cavs, I think Love is in a great bounce back spot. He will draw Jonas V to start the game and Love should get some open looks early…we know that when he starts off hot he usually puts up huge numbers! I also like the idea (GPP only) of Isiah Thomas. IT played 21 minutes vs the Magic, then 19 minutes vs the Wolves before he got ejected for karate chopping Andrew Wiggins in the throat. We could see him play over 25 minutes tonight and at $5,400 (FD) I want my exposure there if I’m fading LBJ.
As for the Raptors, with Ibaka and Lowry off the court, DeRozan’s usage goes from 30.2% to a whopping 43.8%. Hard to pass that up against a team unable to defend guards. Delon Wright will be chalky and rightfully so. He is soaking up all the minutes he can handle as the team’s starting PG. The other usage increase I have noticed is Norman Powell, which jumps from 20.3 to 24.1 with Ibaka and Lowry out. This is the kind of low ownership play that can help win a GPP! I don’t like Jonas tonight as I see the Cavs going small and the Raptors will need to keep up. They will roll out more Pascal Siakam or Lucas Nogueira. Also expect a few more minutes from VanVleet who gets a slight usage bump with Ibaka and Lowry out.
LAC/SAC: This game has a total of 210.5 o/u and has the Clippers slightly favored by 1.5. I hope you all enjoyed the show that sweet Lou put on last night. 50 piece chicken mcnuggets! Lou is the definition of streak shooter. I don’t expect him to put up those numbers tonight, but, he will be heavily leaned on to score if Milos and Blake are out again. Ty Wallace should now see a ton of minutes with CJ Williams being ruled out. He’s hungry and wants to prove that he and the Kings are the perfect team against whom to do that. Last night Wesley Johnson played only played 15 minutes. Perhaps Doc Rivers was saving his legs for tonight’s game? I expect him to see upwards of 20 minutes tonight and Vegas thinks this game will be close, so he could see a few more ($4,000 on FD). News to watch here is if Blake and/or Milos play. Deandre Jordan will play his usual minutes in the mid 30s while dealing with Willie Cauley-Stein.
Sacramento Kings are well rested and will get George Hill back tonight. Hill perhaps better rested as he has missed the last two games for the birth of his chile, and is safe to play given he will play full minutes. De’Aaron Fox will also get as many minutes as he can handle with Frank Mason being out another 2-4 weeks with a tear in his heel (ouch). A guy I LOVE tonight is Bogdan Bogdanovic. The Clippers have a 1.133 aDVP against the SF position and I want to attack that with a guy who can catch fire. Speaking of catching fire, Buddy Hield is long overdue. He should be lower owned for the game log watchers who see he had a 22 ftps performance against the Lakers. Buddy has 30 point potential and is $4,500 on FD. Centers seem to have big nights against the Clippers. I will be rostering a ton of WCS in tonight’s LU’s. He is the anchor of the Kings’ defense and cleans up on the glass. Hill being back also bodes well for Willy as he gets easy layups with Hill and Fox garnering so much attention. One last Kings player worth mentioning is Garrett Temple. In the last two games he’s played 29 minutes a piece but that was without George Hill. He should drop down to the mid to low 20 minutes now with Hill back, as he won’t be needed to play the backup SG anymore.
SAS/LAL: This game has a total of 211 0/u with the Spurs being slightly favored by 2.5. We all know the Spurs are a pace down team. This usually means the opposing team will play slower. Not the Lakers. Walton knows 2 words in his vocabulary: 1. Play 2. Faster. If this game stays as close as Vegas predicts then I am rolling out Lonzo. He is the engine that makes the Lakers run and can put up a 50 FTPS performance even with that horrible looking jump shot. I expect KCP to get his usual 30+ minutes and he never met a 3 point shot in transition he didn’t like. The only somewhat attackable position against the Spurs is PF/C at 0.973 aDVP. This leads me to Julius Randle and Kyle Kuzma. Randle starts at the PF but is the team’s center for all intents and purposes. When Kuzma enters, either Randle or Nance play the 5 while Brook Lopez sits. Kuzma is one of my favorite plays on the slate. Again, if this game stays close as predicted by Vegas, Lonzo and Kuz will be a big reason why.
The Spurs are well rested not having played since January 8th at the Kings. I like to attack the Lakers at the 3 and 4 positions. The aDVP will show you why. At SF the Lakers are 1.220 aDVP which leads me to Kyle Anderson. Kyle should see upwards of 28 minutes and is only $5,600 on FD. He should be a cash game lock and in play for GPPs. The next guy I want to target here is LMA. He has been putting up monstrous games the last few times: 48.9, 54.3, rest game, 44.3 and 45.2 (FD). For a guy with this much ceiling in a game, where I want to attack PF in a game that Vegas predicts should be close…do the math. Ok, this is my one narrative play for the night. Pau Gasol. Pau was heartbroken when news broke that he had been traded to NO for CP3. Then when the trade got “basketball reasons” nixed he was never the same. He then left for Chicago as soon as his contract was up and he did so in a “screw you guys” manner. He wants to play well and he wants to do that in Los Angeles.
