Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did for last night. Our first free square of the night was Kyle Anderson who ended up with 23.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.8x value. Our second free square of the night was Lou Williams who ended up with 42.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.4x value. Our final free square of the night was Bobby Portis who ended up with right around 30 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.8x value.
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Tonight
We have a shorter sized slate ahead of us for Tuesday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Dallas Mavericks (111), Los Angeles Lakers (110), and the Oklahoma City Thunder (107). The highest priced players on the slate are Russell Westbrook, Aaron Gordon, and DeMar DeRozan,
- Shabazz Napier PG/SG POR ($5,400)
- Shabazz Napier and the Portland Trailblazers will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road tonight. The Trailblazers have an implied total sitting at right around 99-points and they are currently 8.0-point underdogs. The Trailblazers have been playing at a pace of right around 101.1 and the Thunder have been playing at a pace of right around 99.4. This is a neutral pace game as both these teams play at relatively the same pace. Napier is likely going to be guarded by Russell Westbrook tonight who is an okay defender. Napier has the following stats on the season so far this year: 20.4 MPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, .2 BLKPG, 1.3 STLPG, 9.5 PPG, 18.1 FPPG, and a .89 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 30.721 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.69x value. He is projected to play right around 35 minutes tonight. Napier is starting for Lillard again and he has done pretty well in his absence. He is getting up there in price a little bit but I still like him tonight on this short slate. Load him up as a mid-tier guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Delon Wright PG/SG TOR ($4,400)
- Delon Wright and the Toronto Raptors will take on the Miami Heat at home tonight. The Raptors have an implied total sitting at right around 106-points and they are currently 4.5-point underdogs. The Raptors have been playing at a pace of right around 102.1 and the Heat have been playing at right around 98.0. This is going to be a pace down game for the Raptors tonight. Delon is likely going to be coming off the bench tonight but I still think he will get enough minutes tonight to put him in a good spot. He has the following numbers on the season so far this year: 21.1 MPG, 2.9 RPG, 2.4 APG, .6 BLKPG, 1.2 STLPG, 8.8 PPG, 19.4 FPPG, and a .92 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 26.983 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.14x value. He is projected to play right around 36 minutes tonight. The matchup might not be the greatest but we have to look at Delon’s price and the number of minutes he is going to receive tonight. There is not a ton of value on this slate tonight and I think Delon makes a great value guard play on Draftkings tonight.
- Harrison Barnes SF/PF DAL ($7,000)
- Harrison Barnes and the Dallas Mavericks will take on the Orlando Magic tonight at home. The Mavericks have an implied total sitting at right around 111-points and they are currently 7.0-point favorites. The Mavericks have been playing at a pace of right around 98.2 and the Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 102.9. This is going to be a significant pace up game for the Mavs and Barnes tonight which should see him getting a nice boost in fantasy production tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by Jonathon Simmons who is not a great defender and I guy I expect Barnes to put up a ton of points on tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 34.5 MPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, .2 BLKPG, .6 STLPG, 18.7 PPG, 31.8 FPPG, and a .92 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 33.388 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.77x value. I am a little bit higher on Barnes tonight than the Domination Station. He has a great matchup always plays a ton of minutes and has a solid FPPM. This is going to be a high scoring game and a pace up game tonight which all bodes well for Barnes tonight. Load him up as higher priced forward with upside tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a smaller slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Harrison Barnes tonight! Good luck Army!
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