Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did for last night. Our first free square of the night was Ish Smith who ended up with 19.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.4x value. Our second free square of the night was Derrick Favors who ended up with 34.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.8x value. Our final free square of the night was Goran Dragic who ended up with right around 34.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.2x value.
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Tonight
We have a decent sized slate ahead of us for Saturday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Cleveland Cavaliers (115), Minnesota Timberwolves (110), and the Washington Wizards (110). The highest priced players on the slate are LeBron James, James Harden, and DeMarcus Cousins.
- Elfrid Payton PG ORL ($6,700)
- Elfrid Payton and the Orlando Magic will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight at home. The Magic have an implied total sitting at right around 106-points and they are currently 9.0-point underdogs. The Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 102.7 and the Cavaliers have been playing at a pace of right around 99.7. This is a slight pace down game for the Magic and Payton tonight but I still like the spot that Payton is in tonight. Payton is likely to be guarded by Isaiah Thomas tonight who is not that great of a defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 29.2 MPG, 4.0 RPG, 6.6 APG, .3 BLKPG, 1.4 STLPG, 12.6 PPG, 30.2 FPPG, and a 1.03 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 36.387 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.43x value. He is projected to play right around 34 minutes. Payton has a good matchup and a solid price tonight. The Domination Station likes him and I think he makes a great mid-tier point guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Will Barton SG/SF DEN ($5,700)
- Will Barton and the Denver Nuggets will take on the Sacramento Kings tonight on the road. The Nuggets have an implied total sitting at right around 107-points and they are currently 5.5-point favorites. The Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.2 and the Kings have been playing at a pace of right around 97.3. This is going to be a pace down game for the Nuggets tonight but this is still a good matchup for Barton tonight. Barton is likely going to be coming off the bench tonight but that is usual for him and the Kings do not have a great defensive bench. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 31.0 MPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.0 APG, .6 BLKPG, 1.0 STLPG, 14.7 PPG, 30.4 FPPG, and a .98 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.88 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.24x value. He is projected to play right around 30 minutes tonight. Barton is at a really affordable price and we always know the upside that he brings to the table. I think he makes a great mid-tier forward or guard play on Draftkings tonight.
- Tobias Harris SF/PF DET ($6,100)
- Tobias Harris and the Detroit Pistons will take on the Houston Rockets tonight at home. The Pistons have an implied total sitting at right around 103-points and they are currently 5.5-point underdogs. The Pistons have been playing at a pace of right around 98.2 and the Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.9. This is going to be a significant pace up game for the Pistons as they are one of the slowest teams in the league. This should have a nice boost to their fantasy production tonight. Tobias is likely going to be guarded by Ryan Anderson tonight who is a horrible defender and a guy Tobias should put a lot of points on tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 32.5 MPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, .2 BLKPG, .7 STLPG, 17.9 PPG, 29.8 FPPG, and a .92 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 31.751 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.2x value. He is projected to play right around 33 minutes tonight. This is a great matchup for Tobias tonight. I expect a big offensive output from him tonight. He makes a great affordable forward with some upside on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a smaller slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Tobias Harris tonight! Good luck Army!
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