Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did for last night. Our first free square of the night was T.J. Warren who ended up with 36.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.7x value. Our second free square of the night was Ish Smtih who ended up with 22.5 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.8x value. Our final free square of the night was Chris Paul who ended up with right around 39.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.1x value.
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Tonight
We have a tiny slate ahead of us for Thursday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Golden State Warriors (118), Houston Rockets (113), and the Oklahoma City Thunder (108). The highest priced players on the slate are Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, and Stephen Curry.
Free Squares
- Eric Gordon SG HOU ($6,500)
- Eric Gordon and the Houston Rockets will take on the Golden State Warriors at home tonight. The Rockets have an implied total sitting at right around 113-points and they are currently 5.0-point underdogs. The Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.9 and the Warriors have been playing at a pace of right around 103.7. This is going to be a nice pace-up game for the Rockets tonight and a great game overall as both teams play fast. Gordon is likely going to be guarded by Klay Thompson tonight who is a decent defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 32.2 MPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.1 APG, .4 BLKPG, .6 STLPG, 19.3 PPG, 27.6 FPPG, and a .86 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 35.388 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.44x value. He is projected to play right around 38 minutes tonight. No Harden again tonight and a pace up game makes Eric Gordon an attractive option on a small slate tonight. He has a relatively affordable price and I think he has some upside tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Draymond Green PF/C GSW ($6,600)
- Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors will take on the Houston Rockets on the road tonight. The Warriors have an implied total sitting at right around 118-points and they are currently 5.0-point favorites. Like I talked about in the Gordon write-up the Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.9 and the Warriors have been playing at a pace of right around 103.7. Slight pace down game for the Warriors tonight but I wouldn’t worry that much about it as both teams are some of the fastest in the league. Draymond is likely going to be guarded by Ryan Anderson tonight who is not a good defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 32 MPG, 7.5 RPG, 7.6 APG, 1.3 BLKPG, 1.5 STLPG, 10.4 PPG, 36.4 FPPG, and a 1.14 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 35.605 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.39x value. Durant is out tonight and Draymond has a really good matchup. I think we will see a little more offensive output from him tonight which should help him exceed his value. Load him up as a mid-tier forward or center on Draftkings tonight.
- Gerald Green SG/SF HOU ($4,000)
- Gerald Green and the Houston Rockets will take on the Golden State Warriors at home tonight. The Rockets have an implied total sitting at right around 113-points and they are currently 5.0-point underdogs. The Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.9 and the Warriors have been playing at a pace of right around 103.7. This is going to be a nice pace-up game for the Rockets tonight and a great game overall as both teams play fast. Green is likely going to be coming off the bench tonight which is nice as he won’t face some of the Warriors best defenders. He has the following stats in his limited season so far this year: 21.6 MPG, 3.0 RPG, .5 APG, .3 BLKPG, 1.0 STLPG, 13.8 PPG, 21.8 FPPG, and a 1.01 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 15.641 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 3.9x value. He is projected to play right around 23 minutes tonight. I am obviously higher on Green than the Domination Station tonight and I think he makes a solid value play on a slate with little value. Load him up as either a value guard or forward on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a tiny slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Eric Gordon tonight! Good luck Army!
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