Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did for last night. Our first free square of the night was George Hill who ended up with 16.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 3.6x value. Our second free square of the night was Kawhi Leonard who ended up with 49.0 DKFP which was good enough for right around 7.3x value. Our final free square of the night was Dennis Schroder who ended up with right around 30 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.1x value.
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Tonight
We have a huge slate ahead of us for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Denver Nuggets (115), Houston Rockets (114), and the Golden State Warriors (113). The highest priced players on the slate are Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and LeBron James.
Free Squares
- T.J. Warren SF/PF SAC ($6,400)
- T.J. Warren and the Phoenix Suns will take on the Denver Nuggets tonight on the road. The Suns have an implied total sitting at right around 103-points and they are currently 11.5-point underdogs. The Suns have an implied total sitting at right around 104.1 and the Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.2. This is going to be a pace down game for the Nuggets tonight but I still like the spot for Warren tonight and the Nuggets are not a slow team by any means. He is likely going to be guarded by Wilson Chandler tonight who is a below average defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 32.0 MPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.3 APG, .6 BLKPG, .9 STLPG, 19.7 PPG, 31.4 FPPG, and a .98 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 33.279 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.2x value. He is projected to play right around 34 minutes tonight. Warren has been a steady fantasy player all season long. He always gets a ton of minutes and has a solid FPPM. I like him in this matchup tonight against the Nuggets and I think he makes a solid mid-tier forward play on Draftkings tonight.
- Ish Smith PG DET ($5,900)
- Ish Smith and the Detroit Pistons will take on the Miami Heat tonight on the road. The Pistons have an implied total sitting at right around 97-points and they are currently 2.5-point underdogs. The Pistons have an implied total sitting at right around 98.4 and the Heat have been playing at a pace of right around 98.0. This is going to be a pace neutral game tonight for both teams as they play at pretty much an identical pace. Ish is likely going to be guarded by Goran Dragic tonight who is not the greatest defender in the world. Ish has the following stats on the season so far this year: 20.4 MPG, 2.5 RPG, 3.9 APG, .2 BLKPG, .5 STLPG, 9.4 PPG, 19.2 PPG, and a .94 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 28.742 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.87x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. I still think Ish’s price is too low tonight. I think this is a better matchup for him than at first glance and I expect him to exceed his value tonight. Load him up as an affordable guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Chris Paul PG/SG HOU ($9,600)
- Chris Paul and the Houston Rockets will take on the Orlando Magic tonight on the road. The Rockets have an implied total sitting at right around 114-points and they are currently 8.0-point favorites. The Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.8 and the Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 102.6. This is going to be a pace neutral game for both teams and a great game for all players involved as these are two of the fastest teams in the league facing off tonight. Chris Paul is likely going to be guarded by Elfrid Payton tonight who is a terrible defender and I guy I expect Paul to dominate tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 31.2 MPG, 5.2 RPG, 8.9 APG, .4 BLKPG, 2.0 STLPG, 17.2 PPG, 42.4 FPPG, and a 1.36 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 53.362 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.56x value. He is projected to play right around 37 minutes tonight. Chris Paul has a really solid matchup tonight not too mention that James Harden is going to be missing some time. Even at $9,600 with this matchup tonight I think Paul is priced too low. Load him up as a high-priced guard with upside tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a huge slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Chris Paul tonight! Good luck Army!
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