Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Tonight
We have a decent sized slate ahead of us for Monday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Minnesota Timberwolves (110), Indiana Pacers (109), and the Milwaukee Bucks (107). The highest priced players on the slate are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
- Dennis Smith Jr. PG DAL ($6,000)
- Dennis Smith Jr. and the Dallas Mavericks will take on the Miami Heat at home tonight. The Mavericks have an implied total sitting at right around 98-points and they are currently 2.0-point underdogs. The Mavericks have been playing at a pace of right around 98.2 and the Heat have been playing at a pace of right around 98.0. Both of these teams play at roughly the same pace so neither teams gain much of an advantage tonight. DSJ is likely going to be guarded by Goran Dragic who is a middling defender. Smith Jr. has the following stats on the season so far this year: 28.4 MPG, 3.9 RPG, 4.7 APG, .3 BLKPG, 1.0 STLPG, 14.7 PPG, 28.7 FPPG, and a 1.01 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 32.026 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.34x value. He is likely going to be playing right around 32 minutes tonight. Dennis Smith Jr. has a solid FPPM and I like his price and spot tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier point guard tonight on Draftkings.
- Nikola Jokic C DEN ($8,600)
- Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets will take on the Boston Celtics at home tonight. The Nuggets have an implied total sitting at right around 104-points and they are currently 1.5-point favorites. The Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.0 and the Celtics have been playing at a pace of right around 99.3. These teams both play at relatively the same pace. Jokic is likely going to be guarded by Al Horford tonight who is a pretty solid defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 31.2 MPG, 10.5 RPG, 5.3 APG, .8 BLKPG, 1.2 STLPG, 16.1 PPG, 41.1 FPPG, and a 1.32 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 46.639 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.42x value. He is projected to play right around 35 minutes tonight. It’s a tougher matchup against Horford tonight but I think Jokic can overcome that and have a solid game tonight. He has a great price tonight and FPPM number. He is going to play a ton of minutes in what should be a close game tonight. Load him up as a higher priced center with upside on Draftkings tonight.
- Taurean Prince SG/SF ATL ($4,700)
- Taurean Prince and the Atlanta Hawks will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves at home tonight. The Hawks have an implied total sitting at right around 105-points and they are currently 6.0-point underdogs. The Hawks have been playing at a pace of right around 100.7 and the Timberwolves who have been playing at a pace of right around 99.2. A little bit of a pace down game for the Hawks tonight but not the big of a difference. Taurean is likely going to be guarded by Jimmy Butler tonight who is a solid defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 30.2 MPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.3 APG, .6 BLKPG, .9 STLPG, 12.4 PPG, 25.3 FPPG, and a .84 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 25.396 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.41x value. He is projected to play right around 30 minutes tonight. Its a tougher matchup but Taurean is a guy who can fill up the stat sheet in other categories than just offense. He has a solid projection tonight and I think he exceeds his value. Load him up at either forward or guard tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a decent sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Dennis Smith Jr. tonight! Good luck Army!
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