Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
Let’s take look at how our free squares did last night. Our first free square of the night was Jrue Holiday who ended up with 35.50 DKFP which was right around 5.3x value. Our second free square of the night was Will Barton who ended up with 39.0 DKFP which was good enough for right around 7.1x value. Our final free square of the night was Montrezl Harrell who ended up with right around 35.50 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 7.9x value.
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Tonight
We have a shorter slate ahead of us for Thursday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Cleveland Cavaliers (119), Houston Rockets (114), and the Minnesota Timberwolves (109). The highest priced players on the slate are LeBron James, Chris Paul, and Joel Embiid.
- Isaiah Thomas PG CLE ($5,700)
- Isaiah Thomas and the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the Orlando Magic tonight at home. The Cavaliers have an implied total sitting at right around 119-points and they are currently 10.5-point favorites. The Cavs have been playing at a pace of right around 100.2 and the Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 102.5. This is going to be a nice pace-up game for Isaiah and the Cavs tonight which should lead to some extra fantasy opportunities. Thomas is likely going to be guarded by Elfrid Payton tonight who is a terrible defender. I expect a big offensive scoring night from Thomas tonight with an easy matchup. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 23.1 MPG, 1.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, .2 BLKPG, 13.6 PPG, 16.8 FPPG, and a .73 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 36.11 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.33x value. He is projected to play right around 33 minutes tonight. Great matchup and a solid price for Isaiah tonight in a game where he has a ton of upside. Load him up as a mid-tier point guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Evan Fournier SG/SF ORL ($5,500)
- Evan Fournier and the Orlando Magic will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers on the road tonight. The Magic have an implied total sitting at right around 109-points and they are currently 10.5-point underdogs. As talked about in the Thomas write up the Cavs have been playing at a pace of right around 100.2 and the Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 102.5. This will be a slight pace down game for the Magic but I still like the spot for Fournier tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by J.R. Smith tonight who is not a guy I fear defensively. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 32.4 MPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.9 APG, .3 BLKPG .9 STLPG 18.0 PPG, 29.0 FPPG, and a .90 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.429 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.35x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. Fournier is coming off of a career-high game and I think he continues to stay hot with a good matchup tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier guard or forward with some upside tonight on Draftkings.
- P.J. Tucker SF/PF HOU ($3,500)
- P.J. Tucker and the Houston Rockets will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves at home tonight. The Rockets have an implied total sitting at right around 115-points and they are currently 5.0-point favorites. The Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.8 and the Timberwolves have been playing at a pace of right around 99.2. He is likely going to be coming off the bench tonight but will all the suspensions on Houston he should see a nice boost in minutes. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 26.6 MPG, 6.0 RPG, .9 APG, 1.0 STLPG, 5.4 PPG, 16.9 FPPG, and .64 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 19.568 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.59x value. He is projected to play right around 28 minutes tonight. Tucker is going to see an increase in minutes due to some of the Rockets suspensions tonight. He is basically minimum price and provides a lot of roster construction flexibility. Load him up as a value forward tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a smaller sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Isaiah Thomas tonight! Good luck Army!
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