Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
Let’s take look at how our free squares did last night. Our first free square of the night was Yogi Ferrell who ended up with 27.50 DKFP which was right around 6.1x value. Our second free square of the night was Evan Fournier who ended up with 41.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 8.1x value. Our final free square of the night was Nikola Jokic who ended up with right around 67.0 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 7.7x value.
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Tonight
We have a larger sized slate ahead of us for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Golden State Warriors (121), Oklahoma City Thunder (113), and the New Orleans Pelicans (110). The highest priced players on the slate are Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins, and Kevin Durant.
- Jrue Holiday PG/SG NOR ($6,500)
- Jrue Holiday and the New Orleans Pelicans will take on the Atlanta Hawks tonight at home. The Pelicans have an implied total sitting at right around 112-points and they are currently 2.5-point favorites. The Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 103.8 and the Hawks have been playing at a pace of right around 100.6. This will be a slight pace down game for the Pelicans tonight but Atlanta isn’t a slow team by any means. Holiday is likely going to be guarded by Kent Bazemore tonight who is a pretty solid defender. Holiday has the following stats on the season so far this year: 36.5 MPG, 4.4. RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.5 STLPG, 18.5 PPG, 35.4 FFPG, and a .97 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 36.701 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.48x value. He is projected to play right around 37 minutes tonight. It’s a little bit of a tougher matchup for Holiday but at this price, I think he exceeds his value tonight. He has great FPPM numbers and he is going to see a ton of minutes in what should be a close game tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier guard with upside tonight on Draftkings.
- Will Barton SG/SF DEN ($5,500)
- Will Barton and the Denver Nuggets will take on the Los Angeles Clippers on the road tonight. The Nuggets have an implied total sitting at right around 110-points and they are currently 2.5-point underdogs. The Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.0 and the Clippers have been playing at a pace of right around 101.3. This is going to be a nice pace up game for the Nuggets and Barton tonight which should lead to some extra fantasy opportunities. Like always Barton is going to come off the bench where he should feast on a weak defensive bench for the Clippers. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 31.1 MPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.0 APG, .6 STLPG, 1.0 STLPG, 14.6 PPG, 29.9 FPPG, and a .96 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 33.812 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.14x value. He is projected to play right around 34 minutes tonight. Barton is in a really solid spot tonight at an affordable price. He always has the upside and I think he has a pretty safe floor tonight in a game he should see a large number of minutes in. Load him up as either a mid-tier forward or guard tonight on Draftkings.
- Montrezl Harrell PF/C LAC ($4,500)
- Montrezl Harrell and the Los Angeles Clippers will take on the Denver Nuggets tonight at home. The Clippers have an implied total sitting at right around 112-points and they are currently 2.5-point favorites. As talked about in the Barton write up Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.0 and the Clippers have been playing at a pace of right around 101.3. Slight pace down game for Harrell but I still like the spot he is in tonight. Harrell is likely going to be coming off the bench tonight which is actually a good thing as he won’t see as many minutes faced up against Jokic tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 14.2 MPG, 3.7 RPG, .8 APG, .6 BLKPG, .3 STLPG, 8.1 PPG, 15.3 FPPG, and a 1.08 FPPM. Deandre Jordan is going to be out tonight and Willie Reed and Harrell are going to be taking over for him tonight. Harrell has a super FPPM number and if he gets the minutes tonight I think he crushes value. Load him up as a value forward or center tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a smaller sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Will Barton tonight! Good luck Army!
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