Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did for last night. Our first free square of the night was Shabazz Napier who ended up with 33.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.2x value. Our second free square of the night was Delon Wright who ended up with 32.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 7.3x value. Our final free square of the night was Harrison Barnes who ended up with right around 30 DKFP which was good enough for right around 4.3x value.
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Tonight
We have a decent sized slate ahead of us for Wednesday night. The teams with the highest implied totals are as follows: Golden State Warriors (121), Milwaukee Bucks (118), and the Denver Nuggets (112). The highest priced players on the slate Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins, and Stephen Curry.
- Goran Dragic PG MIA ($6,500)
- Goran Dragic and the Miami Heat will take on the Indiana Pacers on the road tonight. The Pacers have an implied total sitting at right around 100-points and they are currently 5.0-point underdogs. The Heat have been playing at a pace of right around 97.9 and the Pacers have been playing at a pace of right around 100.2. This is going to be a nice pace up game for the Heat and Dragic tonight as they play extremely slow. Dragic is likely going to be guarded by Darren Collison tonight who is a below average defender and a guy who I think Dragic can put up a ton of points on. Dragic has the following numbers for the season thus far: 31.5 MPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.8 APG, .2 BLKPG, .9 STLPG, 16.9 PPG, 31.3 FPPG, and a .99 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 34.96 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.38x value. He is projected to play right around 33 minutes tonight. I really like this spot and matchup for Dragic tonight. I like him as a relatively affordable point guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Caris Levert SG/SF BKN ($5,400)
- Caris Levert and the Brooklyn Nets will take on the Detroit Pistons at home tonight. They have an implied total of 101-points and they are currently 2.0-point underdogs. The Nets have been playing at a pace of right around 103.8 and the Pistons have been playing at a pace of right around 98.3. Slight pace down game for the Nets and Levert but I still like his price and spot tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by Avery Bradley tonight who has struggled a bit defensively this year. Levert has the following stats on the season so far this year: 26.5 MPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.2 APG, .4 BLKPG, 1.3 STLPG, 12.0 PPG, 25.7 FPPG, and a .97 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 30.962 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.75x value. He is projected to play right around 31 minutes tonight. The Nets are a bit banged up and I expect Levert to have a lot of opportunities tonight. He makes a solid play at $5,400 on Draftkings tonight.
- Bobby Portis PF/C CHI ($4,700)
- Bobby Portis and the Chicago Bulls will take on the New York Knicks tonight on the road. The Bulls have an implied total sitting at right around 102-points and they are currently 4.5-point underdogs. The Bulls have been playing at a pace of right around 101.2 and the Knicks have been playing at a pace of right around 99.7. Slight pace down game for the Bulls but it is not that significant. Portis is likely going to come off the bench tonight but this is a role that he has excelled in. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 20.5 MPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, .3 BLKPG, .4 STLPG, 12.3 PPG, 24.3 FPPG, and a 1.19 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 27.204 which would be good enough for right around 5.79x value. With Mirotic likely out tonight expect Portis to see an uptick in minutes again. He has a really solid FPPM number and he has a great priced tonight. Load him up as a cheaper forward or center with great upside on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a larger slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Goran Dragic tonight! Good luck Army!
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