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PG:
* ALL FORMATS
Dejounte Murray (SA @ MEM)
I always have mixed thoughts about these chalky cheap guys but tend to side with PGs more so than any other position. Reason being, they really don’t need to do a whole lot and are generally involved in most of the action. When we bring Murray into the discussion, he does so much more than your average PG… he scores, rebounds (even on the offensive end) and gets a nice combo of assists, blocks and steals. He’s only $4800 DK/$5200 FD, and likely won’t have Tony Parker lurking over his shoulder tonight. The Spurs are in the slowest-tempo matchup of the night (as well as on the back-end of a B2B, 3 in 4, 4 in 6), but I keep looking at that price and it’s so hard to turn down.
Kemba Walker (CHA vs NO)
Pace-up game for both sides (NO: 6th, CHA: 9th) and I know everyone loves their Kemba at The Hive. Also, look how opposing PGs have fared vs NOLA since the beginning of December…
Kyle Lowry (TOR @ ATL)
If you look at our aDvP chart, you’ll see that PGs have a “red” matchup vs ATL… and this is strange because Dennis Schroder is the 4th-worst defender in the NBA out of 477 players. Looking into it deeper, you’ll find that the Hawks will typically use Kent Bazemore to defend the better player from opposing teams’ backcourts, which is usually the PG. Tonight, they won’t have that luxury as Bazemore will have the DeMar DeRozan matchup. Lowry doesn’t have the greatest history of reaching his max ceiling vs ATL, but he’s been in that 40-point range often.
* GPP
Chris Paul (HOU @ DAL)
DAL is the best aDvP matchup for PGs on tonight slate (4th-best this season) – James Harden could revert back to his old 70-point self any minute now, but almost no one will pay up for CP3 with so much value on the slate.
Milos Teodosic (LAC vs BOS)
BOS is the 4th-best aDvP matchup on tonight’s slate (6th-best this season) – Teodosic has a floor of 29 DKP/27 FDP in his last three home games, and the Celtics #1 defense gets a slight downgrade playing their second game in as many nights. Also, Juwan Evans will be out for the Clippers and that could push Teodosic’s minutes into the 30s.
SG:
* ALL FORMATS
Victor Oladipo (IND vs PHX)
PHX is the best aDvP matchup for SGs in the league this season – Oladipo thrives in the up-tempo setting and the opportunity is there for steals and PHX is tied for the 4th-highest turnover ratio in the NBA. He’ll likely draw a matchup with Devin Booker, and that’s worth every penny of his salary alone.
Lou Williams (LAC vs BOS)
Austin Rivers and Juwan Evans are both inactive, so I expect Sweet Lou to get closer to 40 minutes in this game. As we talked about on the pod, there is a motive-driven narrative as he was snubbed for the All-Star Game. Sure, Sweet Lou will likely draw the Marcus Smart/Jaylen Brown matchup for most of the night, but you can downgrade them a little bit as the Celtics are on the back-end of a B2B.
Nicolas Batum (CHA vs NO)
Batum is starting to look like his old self and the up-tempo matchup certainly works to his benefit. Just like I mentioned in the Oladipo blurb, the opportunity for steals is there as NOLA is tied for the 2nd-highest turnover ratio in the NBA.
* GPP
Andrew Wiggins (MIN @ POR)
Wiggins has scored a combined 69 (real) points over the last two games with Jimmy Butler out of the lineup… Butler is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. Sure, the Blazers defense is much improved, but the volume of Wiggins’ shot attempts alone makes him an appealing option on FanDuel at $6000… he’s not as appealing on DraftKings at $6900.
Wesley Matthews (DAL vs HOU)
Matthews is incredibly cheap ($4800 DK/$5100 FD) for a guy projected to play 35 minutes. The only thing I worry about with Matthews is foul trouble going against James Harden, but if he can avoid that then he’ll be just fine.
* CASH
James Harden (HOU @ DAL)
Harden’s price ($10,900 DK/$11,500 FD) is slowly creeping back to the norm, and I really want to be on board when he finally hits his max ceiling again. However, I don’t think tonight is the night (given the Mavs slow pace and the history vs DAL), but you can still pay up to get guaranteed production in cash games.
SF:
* ALL FORMATS
TJ Warren (PHX @ IND)
Warren should be matched up against Bojan Bogdanovic (ranked 428th of 477 players in DRPM) for most of this game… maybe even Thad Young for other parts of it. Either way, it’s a matchup that Warren should smash, and he’s gone for exactly 38.1 FDP in each of the last two games.
Nemanja Bjelica (MIN @ POR)
Jimmy Butler is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, and that gives Bjelica merely one more chance to strut his stuff before going back to the bench. Bjelica should really benefit from having the best aDvP matchup of any T-Wolves starter tonight.
Robert Covington (PHI vs CHI)
Covington is very appealing with the horror show of injuries to the Sixers lineup at the moment. As I mentioned on today’s podcast, (if I put my NBA coaching hat on) I would play Covington more at the two tonight and put him in more scoring-friendly situations. In any event, it looks like he’s starting to regain some confidence as more responsibility is being put on his plate.
* GPP
Darius Miller (NO @ CHA)
Miller has played 30 minutes or more in three straight games and reached 6x value each time. In a roundabout way, he is the reason why Rajon Rondo is seeing fewer minutes.
Jaylen Brown (BOS @ LAC)
LAC is the 3rd-best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate (5th-best this season) – Brown plays more at the SG position, as opposed to the SF designation he gets on FanDuel. He was a victim of the Marcus Smart show last night, but I expect him to get back to playing 30+ minutes as some of the older Celtics likely won’t see as much time on the back-end of a B2B.
PF:
* ALL FORMATS
Anthony Davis (NO @ CHA)
While Boogie is tied up with that idiot Dwight Howard all night, AD will have free reign against guys like Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky. I got time for that.
Ben Simmons / Dario Saric (PHI vs CHI)
Supply and demand, my friends. The Sixers are decimated by injuries and both guys will have to play major minutes.
Montrezl Harrell (LAC vs BOS)
DeAndre Jordan is doubtful for tonight’s game and that’ll give Harrell another opportunity to do some damage. Making this even more favorable for him, the Celtics are on the back-end of a B2B and have been bodied down low a lot recently (see: Julius Randle last night). Harrell is very inexpensive on both sites ($4700 DK/$4900 FD) and makes for a great play in all formats.
Ryan Anderson (HOU @ DAL)
Anderson is a much better shooter on the road, and most of his huge games come when the rebounds are combined with the great shooting. Well, the Mavs are the worst rebounding team in the NBA.
C:
* ALL FORMATS
Joel Embiid (PHI vs CHI)
Keith brought up an excellent point on Monday’s podcast – Yes, the Bulls have done a great job against opposing centers this season, but who do they really face on a regular basis in the Eastern Conference? Well, DeMarcus Cousins made Keith look like a genius, and now a very similar type of player in Embiid will look to take aim at that same team. Add in the fact that the Sixers are missing a good chunk of their normal rotation, and Embiid’s upside could potentially be GPP-winning level.
Greg Monroe (PHX @ IND)
Now that Alex Len has been ruled out, that paves the way for Monroe to do some HUGE damage against the Indy second unit. Backup centers (Ekpe Udoh, Alex Len, Bam Adebayo, Julius Randle) have all had big games against the Pacers since the beginning of 2018, all in large part thanks to Al Jefferson.
* GPP
Jusuf Nurkic (POR vs MIN)
Not enough people pick on Karl-Anthony Towns, but now could be the time. Nurkic has played very well in two of the last three games with 48 FDP in each of those, all while playing 31 or minutes or less… but that’s the part that leaves him reserved for GPPs only, the minutes. In fact, he’s only maxed out at 31 minutes since January 2nd.
Clint Capela (HOU @ DAL)
I really wish Capela wasn’t so damn expensive on FanDuel ($7800), but on DraftKings ($6600) it’s all systems go. DAL is the worst rebounding team in the NBA and Capela could truly put a hurting on this undersized Mavs team.
Jonas Valanciunas (TOR @ ATL)
ATL has been getting torched by centers all season long, but I can’t say that a guy playing about 22 minutes is a great play in every format. Jo Val is a nice salary-saver with serious upside, but I’d rather go to these guys playing more minutes… and it’s not like he’s free either.
