POINT GUARDS:
Russell Westbrook (OKC vs POR)
The absence of Damian Lillard downgrades the POR defense somewhat… not that he’s a great defender, but Napier is a tiny person. Westbrook is one of the best offensive threats in NBA history (as much as I never like to tell Keith that) so I don’t see him having too much trouble doing his thing.
I will say, though, on a four-game slate (with so much value at the PG position) there is some merit to fading last year’s MVP in multi-entry GPP formats… NOT ALL FORMATS!!! Play Russ in cash, but it’s not a terrible idea to get creative on this short slate.
Shabazz Napier (POR @ OKC)
We just talked about Napier being a tiny person, but the dude still gets his fantasy points. In Lillard’s absence, which is starting to become too much of a regular occurrence, Napier has consistently played minutes in the mid-30s and never posted fewer than 29 FDP in all those starts… and his current situation isn’t calculated in tonight’s price.
Dennis Smith Jr / JJ Barea (DAL vs ORL)
Elfrid Payton (ORL @ DAL)
I have a lot of interest in going to either side of this matchup, considering both teams are in the top-five aDvP matchups for PGs this season. Not only that, but there isn’t one single position in this game that has a negative aDvP matchup! You can try and make this game sound unappealing all that you want, but there’s a lot of goodness to be had here at a discounted price.
De’Aaron Fox (SAC @ LAL)
With George Hill and Frank Mason inactive, Fox will be the only true PG on the Kings’ roster once again. I love the narrative here too, as Fox tooled Lonzo Ball in their Sweet 16 matchup during the NCAA Tournament last year.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
DeMar DeRozan (TOR vs MIA)
I am somewhat worried about the Raptors playing an overtime game in Brooklyn last night, but they are missing Kyle Lowry after he got powerbombed by Joe Harris off the top turnbuckle… that’ll show anyone trying to jump in the air against my beloved Nets! Back to reality, Lowry hasn’t missed a game yet this season, below is a chunk of games that DRZ played without him last season… the ones highlighted in green were games on the back-end of B2Bs. It is worth noting, though, MIA is the best aDvP matchup for SGs on tonight’s slate.
Garrett Temple / Buddy Hield / Bojan Bogdanovic (SAC @ LAL)
Oh boy, lots of appeal here from the Kings trio… Let’s start with Temple, who actually plays more at the SF position – did you know that SFs vs LAL are the best aDvP matchup in the entire league this season? Now you do. Hield and Bogdanovic are more appealing here as well, seeing more time on the court whenever Hill and Mason are inactive.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL vs SAC)
I don’t know about you guys, but I always feel a lot more comfortable when my ankle monitor comes off. All the legal troubles are finally behind KCP, and he draws a favorable aDvP matchup in the process. The Lakers have been involved in two major blowouts (on both sides of the coin) over the last two games so that’s why KCP’s game log looks so awful… expect that to turn around tonight.
* LATE ADDITION
Wayne Ellington (MIA @ TOR)
Tyler Johnson was just ruled inactive for tonight’s game so Ellington should realistically play minutes in the mid-30s, if not, close to 40.
SMALL FORWARDS:
Paul George (OKC vs POR)
If you’re fading Westbrook and going for ALL THE MARBLES, I love this move to defer to PG13. The most notable piece of information is that he has THE ONLY favorable aDvP matchup in this game.
Harrison Barnes (DAL vs ORL)
Assuming Barnes will play most of his minutes at the PF position tonight (he should), Aaron Gordon has been one of the worst defenders in the NBA since coming into the league. Typically, Barnes is more of a cash-game option, but I’m not going to shy away from solid production on a four-game slate.
Evan Turner (POR @ OKC)
Honestly, I really don’t even like him that much. The two SF options above are where I’m going at the position, but this is the low-cost option I’ll provide.
POWER FORWARDS:
Aaron Gordon (ORL @ DAL)
I talked about Gordon being a terrible defender in the Barnes blurb, but it’s not like Barnes’ defense has been something to write home about either this season. Let’s also not forget, DAL has been atrocious on the glass and that gives Gordon some extra upside with those rebounds. Also, if Jonathan Simmons is inactive tonight, that would be even better news.
Kelly Olynyk (MIA @ TOR)
PFs are the only favorable aDvP matchup against the Raptors, and Olynyk has still been productive even with Hassan Whiteside back in the lineup. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, a fellow versatile PF, just posted a massive game against the Raptors last night… and they are much more tired coming into tonight’s game.
Al-Farouq Aminu (POR @ OKC)
A chance to pick on Fat Lazy Melo? Yes, please. Aminu has never faced OKC with Melo on the roster, but he has posted at least 30 FDP in three of his last four meetings against them.
Dirk Nowitzki (DAL vs ORL)
It ain’t pretty, but this is a four-game slate where we need salary-relief and Dirka Dirka can realistically get you 5x value in a fantastic matchup.
CENTERS:
Bismack Biyombo (ORL @ DAL)
DAL is soooo bad at rebounding, and while ORL’s season numbers aren’t that great, they haven’t had Biyombo in there for meaningful minutes all year either. I made this same case AGAINST DeAndre Jordan on yesterday’s podcast, but Biyombo isn’t a perennial scorer – he relies on rebounds and blocks to get his fantasy points… but he’s not priced as high as DJ.
