Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did last night. the first free square of the night was Jrue Holiday who ended up getting right around 40.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.1x value. Our second free square of the night was Rudy Gay who ended up getting right around 35.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 6.8x value. Our last free square of the night was Jonathan Simmons who ended up getting us right around 27 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.2x value.
Tonight
We have a shorter sized slate ahead of us for Thursday night. The following teams have the highest implied totals tonight: Philadelphia 76ers (113), Oklahoma City Thunder (111), and the Washington Wizards (110). The highest priced players on the slate are Rusell Westbrook, James Harden, and Joel Embiid.
Free Squares
- Joel Embiid C PHI ($10,100)
- Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers will take on the Los Angeles Lakers at home tonight. The 76ers have an implied total sitting at right around 113-points and they are currently 8.0-point favorites. The 76ers have been playing at a pace of right around 104.9 and the Lakers have been playing at a pace of right around 107.1. This is going to be a pace-up game for the 76ers and Embiid tonight. This is going to be a matchup of two of the quickest teams in the league tonight. He is likely going to be guarded Brook Lopez tonight who is a below average defender and a guy Embiid should dominate tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 29.5 MPG, 11.3 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.8 BLKPG, .7 STLPG, 23.0 PPG, 46.0 FPPG, and a 1.56 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 52.463 DKFP tonight which would be good enough for right around 5.19x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. This is a great spot for Embiid tonight. This is going to be a really fast game tonight and Embiid has a solid matchup against Brook Lopez tonight. I think he exceeds his value and still has quite a bit of upside at $10,100. Load up Embiid as a high-priced center with upside tonight on Draftkings.
- Chris Paul PG/SG HOU ($7,600)
- Chris Paul and the Houston Rockets will take on the Utah Jazz on the road tonight. The Rockets have an implied total sitting at right around 108-points and they are currently 6.5-point favorites. The Rockets have been playing at a pace of right around 102.4 and the Jazz have been playing at a pace of right around 98.4. This is going to be a pace down game for the Rockets tonight, but the Jazz have been playing a bit faster lately without Gobert in. With Gobert back in the lineup, I still think they will still play a bit faster. Paul is likely going to be matched up against Ricky Rubio who is an okay defender. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 28.4 MPG, 4.3 RPG, 9.8 APG, .3 BLKPG, 1.9 STLPG, 12.4 PPG, 37.3 FPPG, and a 1.31 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we have a projection of right around 38.675 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.09x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. Chris Paul has a solid FPPM and I do not mind the spot he is tonight or his price. Paul can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways and I think he exceeds his value tonight. Load him up as a moderately priced guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson SF/PF BKN ($5,400)
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and the Brooklyn Nets will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder at home tonight. The Nets have an implied total sitting at right around 104-points and they are currently 6.5-point underdogs. The Nets have been playing at a pace of right around 105.8 and the Thunder have been playing at a pace of right around 99.9. This will be a pace-down game for the Nets tonight. Hollis-Jefferson is likely going to be matched up against Carmelo Anthony who has been an average defender this season. RHJ has the following stats on the season so far this year: 26.5 MPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.0 APG, .7 BLKPG, .9 STLPG, 14.1 PPG, 26.7 FPPG, and a 1.01 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.951 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.55x value. He is projected for right around 31 minutes tonight. I like RHJ as a mid-tier forward who can provide a bit of salary relief tonight on a slate with not a ton of value. He gets fantasy points in a lot of different categories and he has a solid FPPM. Load him up on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a shorter sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Joel Embiid tonight! Good luck Army!
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