Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
(Sign up for a DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP today!)
Recap
Let’s take a look back at how our free squares did last night. the first free square of the night was Kyle Lowry who ended up getting right around 48.50 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5.6x value. Our second free square of the night was T.J. Warren who ended up getting ejected and ended up with only 10.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.7x value. Our last free square of the night was Bradley Beal who ended up getting us right around 59.25 DKFP which was good enough for right around 7.8x value.
Tonight
We have a solid sized slate ahead of us for Wednesday night. The following teams have the highest implied totals tonight: New Orleans Pelicans (113), Orlando Magic, (113), and the Cleveland Cavaliers (111). The highest priced players on the slate are DeMarcus Cousins, LeBron James, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Free Squares
- Jrue Holiday PG/SG NOP ($6,600)
- Jrue Holiday and the New Orleans Pelicans will take on the Denver Nuggets at home tonight. The Pelicans have an implied total sitting at right around 113-points and they are currently 5.0-point favorites. The Pelicans have been playing at a pace of right around 103.6 and the Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.5. This will be a slight pace down game for the Pelicans and Holiday but I still like his price and spot he is in tonight. Holiday is likely going to be matched up against Gary Harris tonight who is a plus defender. Holiday has the following stats on the season so far this year: 36.3 MPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.5 APG, .4 BLKPG, 1.2 STLPG, 16.3 PPG, 32.6 PPG, and a .90 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 36.533 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.54x value. He is projected to play right around 36 minutes tonight. On paper, this is a tough matchup and a pace down game for Holiday and the Pelicans tonight. In saying that I still like Holiday as he has been really finding his groove lately and has had some solid games lately. Anthony Davis is out once again which means a ton of production up for grabs tonight. Boogie is going to take some of that but Holiday also benefits from Davis’ absence. At $6,600 he is likely to exceed his value tonight and I love his upside. He always plays a ton of minutes and will continue that trend tonight in what should be a close game. Load Holiday up as a moderately priced guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Rudy Gay SF/PF SAS ($5,200)
- Rudy Gay and the San Antonio Spurs will take on the Miami Heat tonight at home. The Spurs have an implied total sitting at right around 103-points and they are currently 7.5-point favorites. The Spurs have been playing at a pace of right around 97.5 and the Miami Heat have been playing at a pace of right around 99.9. This will be a pace up game for the Spurs who are one of the slowest teams in the league this year. This should provide a nice fantasy production boost for Rudy tonight. Rudy is likely going to be guarded by Josh Richardson who is a pretty solid defender. He has the following stats on the year so far this season: 22.2 MPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 APG, .6 BLKPG, 1.0 STLPG, 12.0 PPG, 23.9 FPPG, and a 1.08 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 32.023 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.16x value. He is projected to play right around 30 minutes tonight. Rudy Gay has played solid this season without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. He has a high FPPM and a nice projection from the Domination Station tonight. Load him up as a mid-tier forward on Draftkings tonight.
- Jonathan Simmons SG/SF ORL ($5,200)
- Jonathan Simmons and the Orlando Magic will take on the Atlanta Hawks tonight at home. The Magic have an implied total sitting at right around 113-points and they are currently 6.5-point favorites. The Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 103.6 and the Hawks have been playing at a pace of right around 101.1. It’s a slight pace down game but both teams play relatively fast. Simmons is likely going to be guarded against Taurean Prince is an average defender. Simmons has the following stats on the season so far this season: 26.6 MPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.8 APG, .1 BLKPG, .8 BLKPG, 14.2 PPG, 22.0 FPPG, and a .83 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.732 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.71x value. He is projected to play right around 35 minutes tonight. This is going to be a fast game in which I think Simmons will exceed his value tonight. He has a decent matchup and should get a ton of minutes tonight. Load him up as either a guard or forward tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a solid sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Jrue Holiday tonight! Good luck Army!
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball tools in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NBA DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and join the Army today! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!
