Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
Let’s take a look at our free squares from last night. Our first free square of the night was Lance Stephenson who ended up with 33.75 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6x value. Our second free square of the night was George Hill who ended up with right around 17.25 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 3.6x value. Our final free square of the night was Carmelo Anthony who ended up with right around 19.0 DKFP which would be good enough right around 3.1x value.
Tonight
We have a decent sized slate ahead of us for Saturday night. The teams with the highest implied totals of the night are as follows: New Orleans Pelicans (112), Denver Nuggets (111), and the Golden State Warriors. The highest priced players on the slate are Lebron James, Anthony Davis, and DeMarcus Cousins.
Free Squares
- Ish Smith PG DET ($5,500)
- Ish Smith and the Detroit Pistons will take on the San Antonio Spurs tonight at home. The Pistons have an implied total sitting at right around 99-points and they are currently 4.05-point underdogs. The Pistons have been playing at a pace of right around 98.5 and the Spurs have been playing at a pace of right around 97.2. This is going to be a slight pace down game for the Pistons tonight but neither team plays particularly fast. Ish Smith is likely going to be guarded by Tony Parker tonight who has been a pretty decent defender this season. Smith has the following stats on the season so far this year: 20.3 MPG, 2.5 RPG, 3.9 APG, .2 BLKPG, .4 STLPG, 9.1 PPG, 18.9 FPPG, and a .93 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 30.63 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.57x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. It might not be the most optimal matchup in the world but I still think Ish is priced too low tonight. He is going to play all the minutes he can handle tonight and I think he crushes value tonight. Load him up as an affordable point guard with solid upside on Draftkings tonight.
- Richuan Holmes PF/C PHI ($4,200)
- Richuan Holmes and the Philadelphia 76ers will take on the Denver Nuggets on the road tonight The 76ers have an implied total sitting at right around 105-points and they are currently 6.5-point underdogs. The 76ers have been playing at a pace of right around 105.4 and the Denver Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.1. This is going to be a pace-down game for the 76ers but I still like the spot that Holmes is in tonight. Richuan is likely going to be coming off the bench tonight, but I think that is going to be a better spot for him tonight than starting. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 16.3 MPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.1 APG, .5 BLKPG, .4 STLPG, 7.3 PPG, 16.9 FPPG, and a 1.04 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 26.994 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.43x value. He is projected to play right around 27 minutes. Embiid is likely out again and Holmes has usually stepped up in this position. He has a great FPPM and he has a great priced tonight. Load up Holmes as a great value forward or center tonight on Draftkings.
- Will Barton SG/SF DEN ($6,000)
- Will Barton and the Denver Nuggets will take on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight at home. The Nuggets have an implied total sitting at right around 111-points and they are currently 6.5-point favorites. As I stated in the Holmes write-up the 76ers have been playing at a pace of right around 105.4 and the Denver Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.1. This is going to be a nice pace up game for the Nuggets ann Barton tonight which should lead to some extra scoring opportunities. He is likely going to come off the bench tonight which I like as he should be able to feast on the 76ers bench. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 31.2 MPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.8 APG, .6 BLKPG, 1.1 STLPG, 14.9 PPG, 30.5 FPPG, and a .98 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 29.74 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.95x value. He is projected to play right around 31 minutes tonight. I am a little bit higher on Barton than the Domination Station but that may be due to the fact that he is a hard guy to project for. I like his matchup and his upside tonight and I think he makes a great play on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a larger slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Ish Smith tonight! Good luck Army!
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