Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Tonight
We have a decent sized slate ahead of us for Tuesday night. The teams with the highest implied totals of the night are as follows: Milwaukee Brewers (110), San Antonio Spurs (109), and the Toronto Raptors (107). The highest priced players on the slate tonight are Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Oladipo, and Andre Drummond.
Free Squares
- Andrew Harrison PG/SG MEM ($4,100)
- Andrew Harrison and the Memphis Grizzlies will take on the Phoenix Suns on the road tonight. The Grizzlies have an implied total sitting at right around 103-points and they are currently 1.5-point favorites. The Grizzlies have been playing at a pace of right around 96.3 and the Suns have been playing at a pace of right around 104.6. This is the slowest team in the league going up against the 3rd fastest team in the league tonight. This is going to be a significant pace up game for the Grizz tonight which should provide a lot of fantasy upside. Harrison is likely going to be matched up against Tyler Ulis tonight who is the worst point guard defender on the board tonight. Harrison has the following stats on the season so far this year: 19.5 MPG, 2.0 RPG, 2.4 APG, .4 BLKPG, .7 STLPG, 7.0 PPG, and a 15.1 FPPG, and a .77 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 23.238 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.67x value. He is projected to play right around 32 minutes tonight. This is a great matchup tonight for Harrison and he has a rock-bottom salary. He is going to get a ton of minutes tonight in what should be a fast game for the Grizz tonight. Don’t overthink this one and load up Harrison as a value guard on Draftkings tonight.
- Wayne Ellington SG/SF MIA ($3,900)
- Wayne Ellington and the Miami Heat will take on the Orlando Magic at home tonight. The Heat have an implied total sitting at right around 106-points and they are currently 7.0-point favorites. The Heat have been playing at a pace of right around 98.0 and the Magic have been playing at a pace of right around 103.1. This is going to be a pace up game for the Heat and Ellington tonight which should provide him with some extra fantasy opportunities. Ellington is likely going to be coming off the bench tonight but I still think he will be able to put up a lot of fantasy points tonight. He has the following stats on the season so far this year: 22.4 MPG, 2.4 RPG, .1 BLKPG, .6 STLPG, .9 APG, 9.9 PPG, 16.7 FPPG, and a .75 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 26.019 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.67x value. He is projected to play right around 34 minutes tonight. Ellington has really played pretty well as of late and I expect that to continue tonight. He is going to play a lot of minutes and he always has upside as a pure scorer. Load him up as either a vlaue guard of forward on Draftkings tonight.
- Derrick Favors PF/C UTA ($5,900)
- Derrick Favors and the Utah Jazz will take on the Denver Nuggets tonight on the road tonight. The Jazz have an implied total of right around 100-points and they are currently 5.5-point underdogs. The Jazz have been playing at a pace of right around 97.8 and the Nuggets have been playing at a pace of right around 100.2. This is going to be a pace up game for the Jazz tonight who have always been known as one of the slower paced teams in the league. Favors is likely going to be guarded by Mason Plumlee is a below average defender and a guy I think Favors can expose tonight. Favors has the followings stats for the year so far: 27.3 MPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, .9 BLKPG, .7 STLPG, 12.0 PPG, 25.2 FPPG, and a .92 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 26.861 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 4.55x value. He is projected to play right around 3o minutes tonight. I am a little bit higher on Favors than the Domination Station tonight and I think he will exceed his value tonight. He has a good matchup in a pace up game tonight and should play right around 30ish minutes. Load him up a mid-tier forward or Center tonight on Draftkings.
Free Square of the Night
We have a decent sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Andrew Harrison tonight! Good luck Army!
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