Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
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Recap
For our free squares last night we had Chris Paul who ended up with 62.75 DKFP which was good enough for right around 7.5x value. For our second free square of the night, we had Rajon Rondo who ended up with 18.25 DKFP which was good enough for 2.9x value. For our final free square of the night, we had Aron Baynes who ended up with 26.50 which was good enough for right around 6.8x value.
Tonight
We have a medium sized slate ahead of us for Thursday night. The teams with the highest implied totals of the night are as follows: Cleveland Cavaliers (115), Golden State Warriors (112), and the Brooklyn Nets (107). The highest priced players on the slate are LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Kristaps Porizingis.
Free Squares
- Spencer Dinwiddie PG/SG BKN ($6,700)
- Spencer Dinwiddie and the Brooklyn Nets will take on the New York Knicks tonight at home. The Nets have an implied total sitting at right around 107-points and they are currently 1.0-point favorites. The Nets have been playing at a pace of right around 105.2 and the Knicks have been playing at a pace of right around 99.8. This is going to be a pace down game for the Knicks tonight but I still like the spot Dinwiddie is in tonight. Dinwiddie is likely going to be guarded by Jarret Jack tonight who is a guy I think Dinwiddie will have no problems exploiting tonight. Dinwiddie has the following stats on the season so far this year: 26.3 MPG, 3.3 RPG, 6.6 APG, .4 BLKPG, .8 STLPG, 12.3 PPG, 28.0 FPPG, and a 1.06 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 34.689 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.18x value. He is projected to play right around 31 minutes. Dinwiddie has a good matchup and he will play a ton of minutes in what should be a close game tonight. Lock him in as a moderately priced guard tonight on Draftkings.
- Omri Casspi SF/PF GSW ($3,600)
- Omri Casspi and the Golden State Warriors will take on the Dallas Mavericks on the road tonight. The Warriors have an implied total sitting at right around 117-points and they are currently 10.5-point favorites. The Warriors have been playing at a pace of right around 104.5 and the Mavericks have been playing at a pace of right around 98.6. This is going to be a slower game for the Warriors but I don’t think it is going to impact Casspi much tonight. He is likely going to be guarded by Dirk Nowitzki tonight who is just an average defender. Casspi has the following stats on the season so far this year: 14.4 MPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, .5 BLKPG, .3 STLPG, 6.0 PPG, 14.0 PPG, and a .97 FPPM. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 21.845 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 6.24x value. Casspi is going to get a ton of minutes tonight at a near minimum price. Don’t overthink this one tonight at load up Casspi and a value forward on Draftkings tonight.
- Karl Anthony-Towns C MIN ($9,100)
- Karl Anthony-Towns and the Minnesota Timberwolves will take on the Sacramento Kings tonight at home. The Kings have an implied total sitting at right around 107-points and they are currently 10.5-point favorites. The Wolves have been playing at a pace of right around 99.8 and the Kings have been paying at a pace of right around 98.0. Both of these teams play at a similar pace. Towns is likely going to be guarded by Skal Labissier tonight who is an awful defender. Towns has the following stats on the season so far this year: 35.2 MPG, 11.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.3 BLKPG, .8 STLPG, 20.1 PPG, 42.3 FPPG, and a 1.20 FPPM. Taking a lCok at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 48.008 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 5.28x value. He is projected to play right around 36 minutes tonight. Towns is going to play a boatload of minutes in an easy matchup tonight. Load him up as a high priced center on Draftkings tonight.
Free Square of the Night
We have a shorter sized slate tonight with some good tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for NBA so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Spencer Dinwiddie tonight! Good luck Army!
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